NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) – Following is the view from
editors in the Americas on major news in the week ahead:
* U.S. economic data: Producer Price Index, Beige Book
* Fed speaker parade to give clues on quantitative easing
* JPMorgan, Google, Alcoa, Wells Fargo report earnings
* Brazil’s Rousseff visits Washington
For Insider TV show on the week ahead, click here: http://link.reuters.com/jah57s
WALL STREET TO MOVE ON PAYROLLS, EARNINGS
With the market closed for the Good Friday holiday, Monday
will be stock investors’ first opportunity to trade on the
monthly jobs report – except for a small window when futures
will be active. But by the start of next week, first-quarter
earnings will be just around the corner. Alcoa kicks
things off with results after the bell on Tuesday. The week’s
earnings highlights also include JPMorgan, Wells Fargo
and Google. Analysts have slashed first-quarter
expectations by two-thirds since the market bottomed last
October. This means expectations should be easier to meet but
will also be a much bigger disappointment if they fall short. A
strong jobs figure and firm start to earnings season could put
bonds on the back foot again and also help the dollar, as
markets appear increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve could
be headed toward monetary tightening before the European Central
Bank.
ENERGY PRICES SEEN BOOSTING INFLATION
Rising energy prices will pressure inflation readings for
March. The Producer Price Index, coming out on Thursday, is seen
climbing by 0.4 percent for the second month in a row, but at
half that pace once energy and food is excluded. The Consumer
Price Index on Friday could be a little softer, rising by 0.3
percent overall and the core rate by 0.2 percent. The Federal
Reserve has expressed little concern so far about inflationary
pressures, saying in minutes released last week that the
energy-driven gains should prove temporary. The Fed’s Beige
Book, a survey of economic conditions around the country
released on Wednesday, will give a feel for the impact on
pocketbooks and whether businesses and consumers are cutting
back spending to absorb higher energy costs.
FED SPEAKER ERUPTION
A barrage of Fed speakers should clarify how high the bar is
for the central bank to embark on a fresh round of quantitative
easing. Markets were whipsawed the past month by stronger than
expected economic data, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s concern that
unemployment would not retreat quickly enough this year and
then a hawkish tilt to the Fed minutes. Analysts want to get a
better sense of their underlying message. Dallas Fed President
Richard Fisher and Minneapolis’ Narayana Kocherlakota speak on
Tuesday and are rather hawkish. That could spook investors
already put off by the prospect that a third round of QE may be
fading into the distance. Two thematic conferences will provide
for ample discussion – one held by the Atlanta Fed in Stone
Mountain, Georgia, hosted by Dennis Lockhart, an FOMC voter who
is dovish. Another conference, at the Levy Economics Institute
in New York, features San Francisco Fed’s John Williams, another
FOMC voter who also is on the dovish side.
ALCOA LAUNCHES U.S. EARNINGS SEASON
Aluminum producer Alcoa kicks off the earnings season on
Tuesday, with Wall Street looking closely for signs U.S.
industrial demand is growing. Analysts are expecting Alcoa to
post a small loss, but rising aluminum prices after production
cutbacks might indicate the company’s bullish outlook for the
rest of this year could be justified.
GOOGLE EARNINGS
Google reports quarterly results on Thursday. The company’s
stock has regained most of the ground it lost after missing Wall
Street revenue and profit targets last quarter, but there are
still plenty of questions hanging over the world’s No. 1 Web
search engine. Advertising rates — or cost-per-click – that
Google generated from its search ads in the first quarter of
2012 will be in focus, as well as any details on its mobile
business and competition with social networking giant Facebook,
which is set to go public next month.
JPMORGAN, WELLS FARGO POST RESULTS
JPMorgan, the largest bank in the United States, releases
first quarter results on Friday. Wall Street analysts see its
profit declining from the same period a year ago. Company
executives may be asked about stock repurchases, now that
JPMporgan has received permission to buy back more stock
following the Federal Reserve’s test of is financial strength.
Wells Fargo, the fourth-largest, also reports results on Friday.
BRAZIL’S ROUSSEFF VISITS OBAMA
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff travels to Washington to
meet with U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday. On the agenda:
energy cooperation, infrastructure development, tensions over
the recent cancellation of an Embraer contract by the
U.S. Air Force, and Brazilian concerns over Iran and Syria.
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos will also be in the
spotlight next week when he hosts the Summit of the Americas in
the Caribbean city of Cartagena, where leaders from around the
hemisphere will discuss issues such as rising trade
protectionism, the world economy, and what Brazilians have
dubbed a “global currency war.”
WAL-MART IN CANADA
Wal-Mart Stores executives speak about international
operations with analysts and investors at an event on Thursday
in Toronto. Canada has been one of the company’s success
stories, with more than 330 stores and plans to open up more as
it prepares for greater competition, with U.S. rival Target
ready to open its Canadian doors in 2013. Wal-Mart
executives will speak about a variety of international
businesses, and could give insights on what markets the world’s
largest retailer feels it still needs to enter, either through
acquisition or by opening its own stores.
(Compiled by Jonathan Oatis)
