* Doubts over candidates, constitution cloud outlook
* Brotherhood to escalate political fight with protests
* Neighbours watch transition in Arab world’s most populous
nation
By Tom Perry
CAIRO, April 12 (Reuters) – The final leg of Egypt’s
transition from military to civilian rule has turned into a
bitter power struggle that is feeding a sense of crisis and
confusion among Egyptians, who fear their democratic dawn could
be at risk.
Just weeks before a presidential election in May, divisions
are hardening in a nation polarised by the rise of Islamist
groups that were banned under Hosni Mubarak and attempts by
members of his administration to reassert influence.
The struggle for control of Egypt that began in the streets
last year has moved to the courts and the Islamist-controlled
parliament. How the next few weeks proceed will determine the
course of political change that will influence the whole region.
“There is some serious gamesmanship going on to gain the
upper hand over the future,” said a foreign diplomat, working in
Cairo. “I don’t think anyone could say it is going smoothly …
We’ve had these kind of crunch points before … but each time
they’ve managed to pull it back.”
The web of rivalries between Islamists, secular-minded
reformists and Mubarak’s old guard has thrown up big challenges
for a process that has been far from easy and is being further
muddied by a spate of politically driven legal battles that have
halted work on a new constitution and thrown into doubt the
candidacies of several presidential front-runners.
The political heat is set to rise further on Friday as the
Muslim Brotherhood heads back to Tahrir Square, the cradle of
the revolt against Mubarak, for a protest aimed at stopping one
of his senior aides from running in the vote that starts in May.
Former spy chief Omar Suleiman’s last-minute candidacy has
unnerved secular-minded reformists as well as the Islamists.
Both worry that a Suleiman presidency would mark a major blow to
hopes for democracy in the Arab world’s most populous nation.
While his critics say Suleiman could only win through
subterfuge, his candidacy appears to have struck a chord with
voters alarmed at the rise of Islamist influence and who see the
former army man as the best hope for an end to a year of chaos.
Itself seeking the presidency, the Brotherhood is expected
to draw thousands to the square on Friday. But in a sign of the
polarisation that has split the reform movement, at least one
revolutionary youth group has decided to boycott the Islamist
demonstration and will instead take part in one next week.
CASE AGAINST MUBARAK
Looming over Egypt’s fast-changing political landscape is
the fate of 83-year-old Mubarak himself. The verdict in the case
against him on charges of ordering the killing of protesters
against his rule and corruption is due on June 2.
The trial’s outcome will be crucial to the public mood just
weeks before the top two candidates in the first round of the
presidential vote face off in a June run-off that is expected to
follow the initial poll.
“There is a sense of uncertainty about the future steps in
the transition,” said Mustapha Kamel al-Sayyid, a political
scientist who described the current phase as the most difficult
since Mubarak left power. “This is an important political battle
with every side trying to use whatever means it has.”
It has been more than a year since the Egyptian army took
over power from Mubarak, after the popular uprising put an end
to his 30 years in power.
A council of generals pledged to shepherd the country
towards democracy but then themselves became the focus of
criticism from reformists who still distrust them, seeing the
army as an extension of the former air force chief’s rule.
That mistrust has fed spasms of lethal violence pitting the
revolutionary youth against the security forces. It has been two
months since the last bloodshed in Cairo’s streets. The courts
and parliament have instead become theatres for conflict.
The weak state of the economy, hit by political and social
instability, has added to the sense of turmoil.
Talks over an International Monetary Fund loan needed to
stave off a financial crisis stumbled in large part due to a
power struggle between Islamists and the army-led government.
Drafting a new constitution – a key part of the transition
plan – has been another victim of the fierce fight for power
that is defining politics in post-Mubarak Egypt.
A legal challenge from Egyptians who argued the Islamists
abused their parliamentary majority to secure control has
technically frozen the process.
That has reduced the already slim chances of a constitution
being ready by the time a new president takes office. The court
hearing the case halted moves towards forming the 100-person
body pending a ruling on the legality of the Brotherhood-chaired
body.
“A FEW OBSTACLES TO DEMOCRACY”
The Brotherhood has been under fire from critics for not
taking a more conciliatory stance to the groups that have
boycotted the assembly in protest at the poor representation
given to women, Christians, youth groups and others.
The Islamists offered concessions to draw others back into
the process but these did not convince critics who argued the
Brotherhood’s late decision to contest the presidency was yet
another sign of a its plan to dominate Egypt.
Based on events of the past year, some believe the odds
still favour the army handing over power as scheduled on July 1.
“If Egypt muddles through somehow to a presidential election
that produces a fair result and the constitutional process gets
back on track, then come July 1 we’ll all be saying these were
serious difficulties but Egypt proved us wrong,” said the
foreign diplomat, who declined to be named.
Yet more confusion seems inevitable. Delays to the drafting
of the constitution mean the incoming president’s powers will be
defined by the temporary constitutional declaration that has
governed the interim period and which has been blamed for the
legal chaos of the transition.
Legal wrangling is also muddying the outlook for the
presidential election. There is doubt over the candidacies of
some of the front-runners due to legal challenges over whether
they are eligible to run.
The Brotherhood’s candidate, Khairat al-Shater, is the focus
of one such case, brought by a socialist rival who says the
Islamist should not be able to run due to past criminal
convictions said by his aides to have been trumped up. The group
has a back-up candidate ready just in case.
Meanwhile, the Brotherhood and others have mobilised their
muscle in parliament in an effort to stop Suleiman, appointed
vice president by Mubarak in his final days, and other former
Mubarak-era figures from running for the presidency.
They have tabled a law that would prevent anyone who served
under the deposed president from running in the election. The
draft would also block the candidacy of Ahmed Shafiq, who served
as Mubarak’s last prime minister at the end.
“It is not clear whether we will have the most important
candidates in the elections and it is not clear whether we will
have a constitution in time,” said Sayyid, the political science
professor. “In the long term I am optimistic. In the short term,
we are going to see a few obstacles to democracy,” he said.
(Writing by Tom Perry, editing by Peter Millership)
