By Tom Perry
CAIRO, April 18 (Reuters) – The race for the Egyptian
presidency has been redefined by the disqualification of Hosni
Mubarak’s spy chief and prominent Islamists, including a Muslim
Brotherhood candidate and a popular Salafi cleric.
The developments add to the turbulence of a transition to
democracy that has been punctuated by spasms of violence and
political rivalries between once-banned Islamists,
secular-minded reformists and remnants of the Mubarak order that
was overthrown in last year’s popular uprising.
Winners from the drama include former Arab League chief Amr
Moussa and moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh. Both have
spent longer on the campaign trail than most but were eclipsed
by late comers to the race who were disqualified on Tuesday.
The losers include the Brotherhood, the biggest party in
parliament which decided at the last moment to throw its hat
into the ring but whose chances appear to have been undermined
by the disqualification of its first choice candidate.
Khairat al-Shater, a millionaire businessman and the deputy
Brotherhood leader, is now out of the picture, disqualified on
the grounds of a criminal conviction passed down during
Mubarak’s rule, when the group was banned.
In his place, the group will field Mohamed Mursi, head of
its political party who had filed the official paperwork to run
just in case Shater was disqualified.
“The group and party announce they are continuing in the
competition for the post of the head state with their candidate
Dr. Mohamed Mursi,” the Brotherhood said in a statement.
With the Brotherhood’s well-organised electoral machine
behind him, Mursi immediately becomes a contender in the
election that gets underway in May and is expected to go to a
run-off in June.
But political analysts see the 60-year old engineer as a
much weaker candidate than Shater.
“Mursi was the backup for a reason,” said Shadi Hamid, an
expert on the Brotherhood. “Shater was the only one among them
who looked remotely presidential. It’s a big blow to the
Brotherhood.”
Shater had been stressing his Islamist credentials on his
few days on the campaign trail, striking a tone that could have
galvanised support among the ultra-orthodox Salafi movement that
also did well in the legislative election.
A Salafi preacher, Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, had hoped the
same constituency would launch him into the presidency. But he
too is now out of the vote, disqualifed because his mother held
a U.S. passport – something he strongly denies.
Abu Ismail’s campaign had festooned Egypt with his posters,
generating both broad name recognition and questions over where
his finance was coming from. Rivals alleged it may have been
from like-minded conservatives in the Gulf.
Hamid said: “What made Shater a promising candidate was that
he could unite the Islamist factions, he could bring the Salafis
on board. With Mursi it will be more challenging but it is still
possible.”
MOUSSA TO LAUNCH MANIFESTO
With a Mursi candidacy, there are also greater chances of
Brotherhood internal discipline breaking down and some of its
votes going to Abol Fotouh. He was expelled from the group last
year when he decided to launch his own presidential bid.
“He will get many of the votes that were going to go to
Shater and Abu Ismail as many will not be convinced by Mursi,
who has been away from the Egyptian media in the last period,”
said Nabil Abdel Fattah, a political scientist.
Abol Fotouh, 60, was part of a moderate reform wing in the
Brotherhood until his expulsion. His candidacy has won the
approval of Sheikh Yousef al-Qaradawi, an Egyptian cleric based
in Qatar who is influential in the Brotherhood and beyond.
A medical doctor, Abol Fotouh has also started to win
support outside the Islamist movement among secular-minded
Egyptians looking for someone committed to democratic reform.
Moussa, who describes himself as a liberal nationalist, is
also likely to win votes among secular-minded Egyptians worried
about the dramatic gains made by Islamists in the year since
Mubarak was toppled.
The 75-year old, a former Egyptian foreign minister, has
also move squarely back to the heart of the race thanks to
Tuesday’s disqualifications.
Moussa’s campaign had to contend with the last-minute entry
to the race of Omar Suleiman, Mubarak former intelligence chief
who seemed likely to erode some of Moussa’s support base.
Moussa is due to launch his campaign manifesto on Wednesday
in a slum on the outskirts of Cairo.
“The disqualifications…are certainly to the benefit of Amr
Moussa and Abdul Moneim Abol Fotouh who were listed as
front-runners before the sudden and last minute entrances of
Suleiman and shatter to the race,” said Mustapha Al-Sayyid, a
political science professor at Cairo University.
(Additional reporting by Yasmine Saleh; Writing by Tom Perry)
