* Ex-Brotherhood candidate picks up Salafi vote
* Former Arab League has been frontrunner in polls
* Generals have led bumpy transition
* Change in Egypt has ripple effects across region
By Edmund Blair and Sherine El Madany
CAIRO, April 30 (Reuters) – Egypt enters the last stage of
its first democratic presidential race on Monday with its field
narrowing to a two-horse race between the urbane former head of
the Arab League and a charismatic Islamist medic jailed for
years under Hosni Mubarak.
A poll published in state-run al-Ahram daily on Monday
showed veteran diplomat Amr Moussa in the lead, followed by
Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh, who has emerged in recent days as the
leading Islamist candidate after securing the support of the
ultra-conservative Salafist movement.
Both men are well ahead of 11 other candidates and, for now,
look the most likely to face each other in a second round. That
would give Egyptians a stark choice about the future of the Arab
world’s most populous state.
Moussa, 75, served for a decade as Mubarak’s foreign
minister before taking over the leadership of the Arab League,
and must win over voters sceptical of the old elite.
Abol Fotouh, 60, grew to prominence in the 1970s as a
student activist opposing Egypt’s military rulers and was jailed
in the 1990s as a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, which he
split from last year. He needs to maintain the support of
Islamists, while reassuring secular Egytians he will not impose
a radical transformation on society.
Monday marked the official start of campaigning for the
election, although candidates have been canvassing voters for
months. A first round will be held on May 23-24, followed by an
expected second round run-off in June.
Though they appear to be the clear leaders, it is still not
certain Moussa and Abol Fotouh will make it to the second round:
many voters are undecided and polls have no track record of
accuracy. The Muslim Brotherhood has a candidate challenging
Abol Fotouh for Islamist votes, and can never be written off.
“Nobody can talk about forecasts because in Egypt there are
no scientific opinion polls. They are all impressions,” senior
Brotherhood official Essam El-Erian told reporters.
The election could prove to be one of the most important
turning points in the Arab Spring of revolts that swept across
the region since last year, bringing down the leaders of
Tunisia, Libya and Yemen as well as Egypt’s Mubarak.
Egypt’s revolution has been an unfinished project. Since
Mubarak was swept out by popular protest, generals have ruled
uneasily, their tenure punctuated by bouts of violence,
political quarrels and spiralling economic decline.
In recent days, unrest has rattled ties with Saudi Arabia,
once a close ally. The West is closely watching the race in the
first Arab state to make peace with Israel.
UNPRECEDENTED SPECTACLE
Moussa has generally led in the polls till now, benefitting
from better name recognition than others. Abol Fotouh’s growing
appeal could make the race tighter. Some may yet be swayed by
the unprecedented spectacle of a televised debate between the
top candidates, the first of which is scheduled for Thursday.
Islamists have been on the rise since Mubarak fell. The
Muslim Brotherhood, banned under Mubarak, won parliamentary
elections four months ago, followed by the Salafists, who call
for an even stricter reading of Islamic law.
Abol Fotouh broke away from the Muslim Brotherhood last year
when it initially said it would not field a candidate.
He has solidified his position as the leading Islamist in
the race by securing the backing of the ultra-conservative
Salafists, but portrays himself as a moderate, keen to reassure
secular Egyptians and Christians they have nothing to fear. He
has played up issues of economic and social justice and promised
to increase health and education spending.
“It’s the Egyptian mainstream I am banking on, the ones I
have been working to win over since I started my campaign, who
make up more than 90 percent of Egyptians … who understand
sharia (Islamic law) correctly,” he said in an April 23
television interview. “Wherever we look out for people’s
interests, we serve them, we are implementing God’s law.”
Abol Fotouh long clashed with the Brotherhood’s leadership
by advocating a more open approach to Egyptians from different
social, political and religious backgrounds. Leading Salafis
have acknowledged ideological differences with him, but have
been drawn to a charismatic figure whose break with the
Brotherhood gave him credibility as an independent voice.
Some liberals and more secular-minded Egyptians have also
rallied behind him. Unlike Moussa, he has no links to Mubarak’s
era. But many Egyptians remain suspicious that he still holds
ties to the Brotherhood that could surface in his presidency.
The Brotherhood reversed its decision not to field a
candidate, but its first choice was barred from standing. Its
replacement candidate, Mohamed Mursi, has a low profile so far
and starts well behind in polls, but stands yet to gain from the
support of the Brotherhood’s unrivalled grassroots organisation.
Senior Brotherhood official Mahmoud Ghozlan said rank and
file Salafis could still back Mursi, even though their leaders
picked Abol Fotouh.
As the largest group in the new parliament, the Brotherhood
has clashed with the military rulers over who should appoint the
cabinet, and with other Islamists and liberals over the make-up
of a 100-member panel drafting a constitution, now stalled.
OLD GUARD, NEW GUARD
Moussa, who became popular with ordinary Egyptians as head
of the Cairo-based Arab League, has to fight accusations by
Islamists that he is a member of Mubarak’s old guard.
“The question is not old guard or new guard. The question is
either you were part of the corrupt people that have done a lot
of harm to the country or among the people who have worked and
done their duty according to the highest standard they could
do,” Moussa told Reuters last year early in campaigning.
Many Egyptians fondly remember how Moussa regularly
criticised Israeli policies and in 2003 warned against the
U.S-led invasion of Iraq, saying it would “open the gates of
hell.”
He benefits from fear of religious radicalism. Asked about
his Islamist rivals last week, Moussa said Egyptians should “not
get into an experiment that has not been tried before.”
While Egypt has limped through the political transition, the
economy has taken a nose-dive. Foreign reserves have plunged and
talks with the International Monetary Fund on a loan facility
seen as vital for restoring confidence have foundered.
Egypt’s economic prospects may have taken a further hit on
Saturday when Saudi Arabia, a long-time ally of Mubarak and
potential donor, recalled its ambassador over protests outside
its embassy against the Saudi arrest of an Egyptian lawyer.
“The current crisis between Egypt and Saudi Arabia will be
contained, given the solid relations between the two countries
which transcend any problem,” Planning and International
Cooperation Minister Faiza Abu el-Naga said on Sunday.
(Additional reporting by Tamim Elyan, Ali Abdelatti and Tom
Perry; Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Peter Graff)
