May 4 (Reuters) – Greek voters enraged by economic hardship
are set to punish traditional parties in a highly uncertain
election on Sunday that could plunge the country into new
political turmoil.
Following are the hard economic facts which form the
backdrop to Greece’s May 6 vote.
* THE ECONOMY:
– Twice bailed-out Greece is in its fifth consecutive year
of recession and real GDP has declined by more than 13 percent
since 2009.
– George Provopoulos, Greece’s central banker, said the
economy would contract a further 5 percent in 2012, piling more
pressure on Greeks already battered by crippling austerity and
record joblessness. The IMF expects a contraction of 4.5 to 5
percent, given the sharp fiscal adjustment and labour market
reforms.
– Provopoulos projected Greece’s current account gap, a key
indicator reflecting eroded economic competitiveness, would
shrink to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2012 from 9.8 percent in 2011.
– The central bank estimates that by the end of 2012 the
economy will have regained up to three quarters of
competitiveness lost during 2001-09. Greece joined the euro in
2001 and enjoyed a consumption boom fueled by low borrowing
costs.
*MEASURES
– Greece secured in February a second, 130 billion euro
rescue package to keep it funded until 2014.
– The deal was clinched after Greece committed to fiscal
cuts and structural reforms.
– It also involved the largest-ever sovereign debt
restructuring in which investors traded bonds for lower-value
debt securities, slicing 100 billion euros off its 350 billion
euro debt.
– Whoever wins the elections will have to agree additional
spending cuts of 5.5 percent of GDP, worth about 11 billion
euros for 2013-14, the IMF has said.
* DEBT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
– National debt has risen from 159 billion euros ($210
billion) in 2002 to 350 billion euros ($464 billion) in 2011.
– Unemployment: Greek youth unemployment – under 25
year-olds – was 21.5 percent in Jan. 2008. By December 2011, the
rate had risen to 50.4 percent. Here is a look at comparable
rates around some countries in Europe.
Spain 50.5 percent
Greece 50.4 percent
Portugal 35.4 percent
Italy 31.9 percent
Ireland 31.6 percent
UK 23.5 percent
France 21.7 percent
Germany 8.2 percent
Sources: Reuters/www.imf.org/www.statista.com/Reuters
Graphics
GRAPHICS: European gross government debt as a percentage of
GDP, click on http://link.reuters.com/fat74s
Greece’s new car registrations click on
http://link.reuters.com/nyt54s
(Reporting by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit;
Additional reporting by Scott Barber, editing by Mike Peacock)
