* Tourism is driving demand for suborbital thrill flights
* First commercial suborbital flights could start by 2014
* Advance fares range from $95,000 to $200,000 per seat
By Irene Klotz
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla., Aug 1 (Reuters) – Commercial
suborbital spaceflights should bring in between $600 million and
$1.6 billion in revenue in their first decade of operations,
according to a study commissioned by the U.S. and Florida
governments and released on Wednesday.
Tourism drives about 80 percent of the demand for suborbital
flights, which reach about 63 miles (100 km) above the planet’s
surface before plunging back through the atmosphere.
The thrill ride gives fliers a few minutes to float in
microgravity and a view of the Earth set against the blackness
of space.
Virgin Galactic, an offshoot of Richard Branson’s
London-based Virgin Group, is one of six firms developing
reusable suborbital spaceships, an analysis by The Tauri Group
of Alexandria, Virginia, found.
Prices currently range from $200,000 for a ride on Virgin
Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo, a six-passenger, two-pilot vehicle
currently undergoing testing, to $95,000 for a flight on
privately held XCOR Aerospace’s planned two-seater Lynx vehicle.
Virgin Galactic, which is aiming to begin commercial service
around 2014, already has $70 million in deposits from 536
people, Chief Executive George Whitesides said at a related
congressional hearing on Wednesday.
The Tauri Group believes there are about another 7,500
wealthy people waiting in the wings.
“â??Our analysis indicates that about 8,000 high-net-worth
individuals from across the globe are sufficiently interested
and have spending patterns likely to result in the purchase of a
suborbital flight – one-third from the United States,” the
report said.
“â??We estimate that about 40 percent of the interested,
high-net-worth population, or 3,600 individuals, will fly within
the 10-year forecast,” it added.
The study, which included surveys of 200 people with a net
worth of least $5 million, valued the fledgling industry at $600
million in its first decade, based on current market conditions
and interest.
The market could be worth nearly three times that if
marketing and consumer interest grows in the wake of successful
flights, the study said.
“â??Further potential could be realized through price
reductions and unpredictable achievements such as major research
discoveries, the identification of new commercial applications,
the emergence of global brand value, and new government
(especially military) uses for suborbital reusable vehicles,”
the study said.
After tourists, the next biggest group of potential users
are in the research community. Other potential markets include
technology flight demonstrations, media and public relations,
education, satellite launching, remote sensing and suborbital
travel from one destination to another, a technology that is
likely beyond the study’s 10-year time frame.
The $277,000 study, titled â??”Suborbital Reusable Vehicles: A
Ten-Year Forecast of Market Demand,” was paid for by the U.S.
Federal Aviation Administration, which oversees commercial
spaceflight, and the state of Florida, which is home to NASA’s
Kennedy Space Center.
(Editing by Jane Sutton and Cynthia Osterman)
