(Information and data for this story was derived from a new
Reuters interactive tool, “Connected China”. Click on http://connectedchina.reuters.com
to visit a site that tracks thousands of people, institutions
and connections in China’s power structure.)
* Proteges of Jiang Zemin dominate current Politburo
* Next-generation leaders show Communist Youth League
connections
* Xi Jinping seen as “consensus builder” between factions
for now
* Political reform unlikely given the competing factions
By Irene Jay Liu and Chris Ip
HONG KONG, March 4 (Reuters)-Even as Xi Jinping gets ready
to assume the presidency of China this month, jockeying has
begun for 2017 when rising stars of the ruling Communist Party
move into top leadership posts.
China’s first and second generation Communist Party leaders,
such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, ruled as single paramount
leaders. But over the past two decades, Chinese leaders have
tried to institutionalise governance with an emphasis on
collective leadership – except when it comes to choosing
leaders.
The process is highly secretive and influenced by faction
leaders who jockey to get their allies on the 25-member
Politburo and its apex body, the seven-member Politburo Standing
Committee.
“In certain areas the rules and the norms of
institutionalisation continue, but in certain areas they are
subject to manipulation, in particular with regard to the
selection of the Politburo,” said Cheng Li, director of
research at the John L. Thornton China Center in the Foreign
Policy program at the Brookings Institution.
China’s once-in-a-decade leadership transition last November
installed a largely caretaker leadership in the Standing
Committee. In 2017, five of the seven members will reach
retirement age after one term in office. Only China’s top two
leaders, president-in-waiting Xi Jinping and premier-in-waiting
Li Keqiang, will remain on the powerful body in 2017.
Two main factions are competing for power within the
Standing Committee. Members of the “Shanghai Gang”, headed by
former Party chief Jiang Zemin, have connections to China’s
commercial capital. The other main faction, the “Tuanpai,” is
led by outgoing President Hu Jintao. Its members, like him,
cultivated their careers in the Communist Youth League.
Most of the Politburo members and provincial Party
secretaries eligible for promotion in the next term in 2017 have
experience in the Communist Youth League, according to data from
“Connected China”(http://connectedchina.reuters.com), a Reuters
site that tracks the careers and connections of China’s top
leaders.
Although the Politburo appointed in November shows strong
ties to Jiang Zemin, analysts say outgoing President Hu Jintao’s
Communist Youth League faction will gain the upper hand over the
longer term.
A third group has also ascended rapidly – the princelings,
or privileged children of revolutionary leaders. Key princelings
include Xi and Politburo Standing Committee members Yu
Zhengsheng, Wang Qishan and Zhang Dejiang.
CONSENSUS BUILDER
Xi is the first Communist Party General Secretary to take
power while his two predecessors are both still alive. That
puts him in the role of cautious consensus-builder between
factions allied to his two predecessors, rather than an agent of
reform, political analysts said.
“I don’t think can push much because it’s still a Jiang
(Zemin) Politburo Standing Committee,” said David Zweig, a
Chinese politics scholar at Hong Kong University of Science and
Technology.
Six of the seven members on the Standing Committee have ties
to Jiang, who relinquished the top Party position over a decade
ago. Premier-in-waiting Li, whose ties with Hu go back to the
1980s, is the only Standing Committee member considered to be
a Hu prot (c)g (c) and a member of his Tuanpai faction.
But the 86-year-old Jiang is 16 years Hu’s senior. Few of
his prot (c)g (c)s are expected to stay on when the Standing Committee
members are scheduled to retire in 2017.
Factions of this kind rarely survive the death of its
leader, said Jiangnan Zhu, a Hong Kong University associate
professor specializing in Chinese politics.
“Usually, when a patron dies, his followers can’t hold
together for very long, and his faction will eventually fall.
This was basically the case for Mao, the most powerful patron in
CCP history,” Zhu said.
TUANPAI CONNECTIONS
The Tuanpai could be the exception. It traces its origins to
former Communist Youth League leader Hu Yaobang, who promoted
many Tuanpai officials, including Hu Jintao, during his tenure
as Party General Secretary in the 1980s. The Tuanpai’s
influence expanded under Hu when he became General Secretary in
2002.
Under Hu the number of Tuanpai leaders in top provincial top
posts increased from five in 2002 to 13 in 2005, and rose to 21
in 2010. Connections to the Communist Youth League are a common
denominator for many figures seen as the next generation of
leaders, data from Connected China shows.
Of the 14 members in the 25-member Politburo eligible for
another term in 2017, nine have worked in the Communist Youth
League and are considered to be prot (c)g (c)s or allies of Hu. Only
five are known to have ties with Jiang.
Communist Youth League experience is even more prevalent
among provincial-level Party chiefs.
Provincial Party leadership has become almost a prerequisite
for a top leadership post. Among the 29 eligible for Politburo
membership next year, 19 have experience in the Communist Youth
League, and 11 are considered to be members of the Tuanpai
faction, the data from Connected China shows.
FIFTH AND SIXTH GENERATION
The promotion of so many Communist Youth League members is
largely credited to Hu prot (c)g (c), Li Yuanchao. As head of the
Party’s Organisation Department, he promoted many of his
mentor’s allies.
Three of the top contenders for seats in the 2017 Politburo
Standing Committee are linked to Hu Jintao – Li Yuanchao, former
Guangdong provincial Party chief Wang Yang, and the current
Guangdong boss, Hu Chunhua. If promoted, those three along with
premier-in-waiting Li, would occupy more than half of the
Standing Committee seats in 2017.
“Hu Jintao has been very successful in nurturing future
leaders amongst the fifth and the sixth generation from the
youth league,” said Willy Lam, a scholar on Chinese history and
politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
But the Tuanpai also has a problem, he said. Except perhaps
for Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao who are seen as experienced
leaders, few other leaders from the Tuanpai have a strong track
record.
XI’S POWER BASE
Xi’s power base is in the military where a number of
princelings have made their careers, according to Lam.
The data from Connected China shows Xi has far fewer ties to
other contenders in the Party and the government. Of
the 14 members of the Politburo eligible for another term in
2017, only two are known to have close ties with Xi – Li Zhanshu
and Xu Qiliang. As director of the Central Committee General
Office, Li is Xi’s chief of staff. Xu is a military official
seen as unlikely to be promoted to the Politburo Standing
Committee.
“Xi will not have enough time to build up a distinct
faction,” Lam said. “He will have to spend a lot of time
building consensus within the top leadership because he doesn’t
have a distinct faction of his own. So there will be a lot of
give and take.
“Politically, I think things will remain frozen as it’s
difficult to get a consensus for political reform,” Lam said.
(Additional reporting by Jean Lin, Julie Zhu and Elizabeth
Dilts; ; Reporting by Irene Jay Liu and Chris Ip; Editing by
Bill Tarrant)
