(Bill Schneider is professor of public and international
affairs at George Mason University and a resident scholar at
Third Way. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By Bill Schneider
Oct 18 (Reuters) – Recriminations!
It’s a familiar ritual in Washington every time a party
loses a battle or a candidate loses an election. Only this time,
it could lead to something more serious: A split in the
Republican Party.
The most severe recriminations are aimed at the Tea Party.
Why did they take on a fight they were certain to lose? And
without any endgame or exit strategy? Don’t they understand how
politics works?
Here’s the answer: No.
Or rather, they do understand how politics works – and they
reject it. The United States has a Constitution that divides
power. The only way anything gets done is through deal-making
and compromise. It’s been that way for 225 years. (See the movie
Lincoln for a good example).
The Tea Party doesn’t play by those rules. To them,
compromise means selling out. They won’t make deals. It’s got to
be either victory or defeat. In this case, it was defeat.
But it was a glorious defeat, and they are proud of it. It
was their Alamo. “We’re going to start this all over again,”
Representative John Fleming (R-La.) told the New York Times.
Representative Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.) said to the Washington
Post, “We are waiting around for another battle over Obamacare.”
After all, six weeks after the Alamo disaster, the Texas army
routed the Mexicans at the Battle of San Jacinto. Their battle
cry: “Remember the Alamo.”
Soon we will start hearing “Remember the Shutdown!”
Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who commanded the disaster,
remains defiant. He offers his own recriminations. “Once again,
the Washington establishment is refusing to listen to the
American people,” Cruz said as the fight was being lost. He
claimed, “the American people rose up and spoke with an
overwhelming voice.”
But the one who wasn’t listening was Cruz. He thought the
people were saying, “Kill Obamacare.” What they were saying was,
“Stop holding the country hostage!”
The Republican establishment is thoroughly exasperated with
the Tea Party. Republican leaders in Congress and party
supporters in the business community are outraged over the fact
that their party is being taken over by “wackos.” “There’s got
to be some pushback on those guys who think they came here with
all the solutions,” former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott
told the Washington Post.
But is the establishment ready to fight?
Maybe. Both sides are girding for battle.
The Tea Party is fed up with the Republican congressional
leaders who brokered the surrender. It is encouraging primary
challengers to run against Republican incumbents next year.
“Rest well tonight, for soon we must focus on important House
and Senate races,” Sarah Palin advised her Facebook followers.
“Let’s start with Kentucky.”
Kentucky happens to be the state where Senate Republican
Leader Mitch McConnell is running for re-election next year.
McConnell played a key role in negotiating the deal to end the
shutdown. And he has said there is not going to be another.
Will the Republican establishment stand up and fight? It’s
kind of hard to think of the country club wing of the party
getting down and dirty. But business leaders were horrified over
the fact that Tea Party insurgents were perfectly willing to
allow a debt default in order to get their way. And they are
troubled by conservatives’ resistance to immigration reform.
“The problem is, these guys want someone else to do it,”
former Representative Vin Weber told the Washington Post. “They
don’t want to get involved in primaries.”
But they’re doing it. Or at least, giving money to
mainstream contenders who are ready to take on the Tea Party in
House races in Alabama, Michigan and Idaho. They are also
funding opposition research to discredit Republican candidates
whose views are too far outside the mainstream.
Establishment Republicans want their party back. A
bipartisan group of 14 centrist senators is trying to work out a
compromise budget deal. Are there any centrist Republicans left
in the Senate? Yes, a few – Senators John McCain (Ariz.),
Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Susan Collins (Maine). Maybe Republicans
will listen to them now that they have seen the havoc the far
right has wrought.
The showdown will likely come in 2016 – when the party has
to nominate a presidential candidate. If it looks like
Republicans are going to nominate Cruz or Senator Rand Paul
(R-Ky.) or another Tea Party type, mainstream Republicans are
likely to bolt. It is hard to imagine a warrior like McCain
supporting an isolationist like Paul for president.
That’s exactly why the Wall Street-wing of the GOP is
pressuring the party to curb the influence of Iowa in the
nominating process. Iowa is a caucus state, easily dominated by
the religious right and the Tea Party. Case in point: Rick
Santorum won the 2012 Iowa caucuses.
We will get an important clue from the New Jersey and
Virginia elections for governor next month. It looks like
Republican Governor Chris Christie will easily get re-elected in
New Jersey, while Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli
will lose in Virginia. That result would send a message: a
mainstream Republican like Christie can get elected in a blue
state, but a Tea Party favorite like Cuccinelli can’t win a
moderate Southern state.
Case closed? Not quite. Because the Tea Party can make a
counterargument. In 2008 and 2012, they went along with the
establishment and supported McCain and Mitt Romney as the
Republican nominee for president. Neither man was ever seen as a
real conservative by the Tea Party. But conservatives went along
with their nominations because the establishment said they were
the only Republicans who could win.
But they didn’t.
(Bill Schneider)
