By Andrew R.C. Marshall
BANGKOK, Nov 29 (Reuters) – The French have the best phrase
for Thailand’s turbulent politics: d (c)j vu.
Five years ago, a Thai government led by Somchai Wongsawat,
the brother-in-law of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra,
was besieged by ultraroyalist street protesters bent on
overthrowing what they saw as a corrupt and illegitimate regime.
Today, another Thaksin relative, his sister Yingluck
Shinawatra, is prime minister, and Bangkok’s streets are again
overrun by thousands of Thais proclaiming their hatred of
Thaksin and their love for the long-reigning King Bhumibol
Adulyadej.
But d (c)j vu has its limits. The hapless Somchai spent less
than three months in office. But Yingluck, while facing the
biggest threat yet to her administration, is proving much harder
to dislodge.
The campaign against Yingluck began in earnest after her
ruling Puea Thai Party tried to pass an amnesty bill that
critics said would have nullified the graft conviction of her
billionaire brother Thaksin, who was deposed in a 2006 military
coup.
At least 100,000 people gathered in old Bangkok on Sunday to
demand Yingluck’s overthrow. Tens of thousands have since fanned
out across the capital, occupying the Finance Ministry and
laying siege to other ministries and government offices.
Thousands more have massed at city halls in dozens of provinces.
On Thursday, protesters cut power to the national police
headquarters in Bangkok in a tense stand-off that seemed
designed to provoke a heavy-handed response from Yingluck.
So far, however, she has not obliged. With the number of
protesters apparently dwindling, she easily survived a
no-confidence vote in parliament on Thursday, before appealing
to protesters to halt their action and enter talks with the
government.
Suthep Thaungsuban, the firebrand politician who resigned
from the opposition Democrat Party to lead the protests, has
rejected talks and vowed to continue his campaign to “uproot
Thaksinism”.
But his hardline tactics could be alienating moderate
supporters, while his quirky political vision perplexes even his
natural allies in the Democrat Party. Suthep’s idea for a
“people’s parliament” to replace Yingluck’s administration, for
example, was rejected by Korn Chatikavanij, a senior Democrat
member and former finance minister.
“I have no idea what Suthep means by a ‘people’s
parliament’,” Korn told Reuters. “We think the best way to find
a solution to all of this is for the government to resign and
dissolve parliament.”
Yingluck says she will not dissolve parliament and call a
snap election. While she appeared fraught at the end of the
two-day confidence debate, the former business executive has
since regained her trademark composure and seems determined to
outlast the protests.
“LIMITED INTERVENTION”
Yingluck’s confidence could derive in part from assiduously
cultivated relations with the monarchy and the military, which,
along with the courts, have intervened to break past political
deadlocks. The military has staged at least 18 coups in modern
times, not all of them successful.
“If there is no other choice, if we can’t do this
peacefully, I welcome military intervention,” said retired
farmer Satien Piankird, 65, one of thousands of protesters
outside a government complex in northern Bangkok.
In 2008, Thailand’s top brass made little attempt to stay
out of politics. “If I were prime minister, I would have
resigned,” army chief Anupong Paochinda publicly declared in the
wake of violent clashes between police and protesters in October
that year.
Two years later, troops launched a bloody crackdown on
red-shirted Thaksin loyalists across Bangkok in which scores of
people were killed.
This year, however, the military has remained aloof and
shown no sign of wanting to leave barracks, even after 1,000
protesters broke into its Bangkok headquarters on Friday.
“The army wishes all sides to solve the problem with the
country’s best interests in mind,” said deputy army spokesman
Colonel Winthai Suvaree.
The military might act if there is bloodshed between
protesters and police, or if protesters cause widespread damage
to property, says Pavin Chachavalpongpun of Kyoto University’s
Centre for Southeast Asian Studies.
“But it would be a limited intervention,” he says. “The
military would be dealing with a specific (security) issue
rather coming out to side with anti-government forces to
overthrow the Yingluck government.”
ROYAL RELATIONS
Retired farmer Satien and other protesters have called for
King Bhumibol to appoint an interim government to replace
Yingluck’s.
But the aging and widely revered monarch has not commented
on the current unrest. He is at his seaside palace in Hua Hin,
about 190 km (118 miles) south of Bangkok, after a long spell in
hospital in the capital.
His son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, expressed concern on
Sunday about the political unrest and urged people to settle
their differences peacefully. The appeal was issued through
Bangkok police chief Kamronwit Thoopkrachang, a staunch Thaksin
ally.
Yingluck has also been careful to maintain relations with
the palace. In a highly symbolic meeting in August, Yingluck
visited the Bangkok residence of retired General Prem
Tinsulanonda on his 94th birthday.
Prem, the president of the king’s Privy Council, is accused
by many Thaksin loyalists of masterminding the 2006 coup.
Afterwards Prem urged the armed forces to support Yingluck.
The Democrats are regarded as the royalist party, but
Yingluck’s Puea Thai Party has strived “to create the image as a
protector of the palace”, said David Streckfuss, an independent
scholar of Thailand.
It has done this by “aggressively” pursuing those deemed to
have insulted the monarchy under strict lese majeste laws.
More likely than a royal or military intervention is a legal
challenge. Past decisions by Thailand’s courts have ended the
rule of two Thaksin-backed prime ministers and dissolved two
previous incarnations of the Puea Thai Party.
On Nov. 20, the Constitutional Court ruled that government
efforts to amend the constitution were illegal but stopped short
of dissolving Puea Thai.
But Yingluck and her party still face a threat from
Thailand’s usually slow-moving National Anti-Corruption
Commission (NACC).
It is considering a petition from protesters to investigate
312 MPs and senators for backing a constitutional amendment that
would have changed the make-up of the Senate.
The Constitutional Court said on Nov. 20 that government
plans to change the constitution were illegal, paving the way
for the NACC to suspend 312 politicians and eviscerate Puea
Thai. Some observers expect a decision after the king’s birthday
celebrations on Dec. 5.
But any NACC decision to disband Yingluck’s party could
spark a confrontation with pro-Thaksin red shirts, tens of
thousands of whom are gathering at a stadium in eastern Bangkok.
Despite such support, and her commanding majority in
parliament, the protests represent a “real threat” to her
government, says scholar Pavin.
“To say that Yingluck is confident is a little bit surreal,”
he says.
(Additional reporting by Amy Sawitta Lefevre and Pairat
Temphairojana. Editing by Jason Szep and Robert Birsel)
