To play by the numbers, you must know what they are. Textbooks give approximate percentages on suit breaks.
If you’re missing two cards, a 1-1 break is a 52 percent chance; 2-0, 48 percent. Missing three: 2-1, 78 percent; 3-0, 22 percent. Missing four: 2-2, 50 percent; 3-1, 40 percent; 4-0, 10 percent.
Missing five: 3-2, 68 percent; 4-1, 28 percent. Missing six: 4-2, 48 percent; 3-3, 36 percent. Missing seven: 4-3, 62 percent; 5-2, 31 percent.
Note that an odd number of missing cards tends to break evenly.
OPTIONS
In today’s deal, East lets dummy’s king win the first club. South has options: He can draw trumps and take a diamond finesse (a 50 percent chance), but if it loses, the defense will also get a heart and a second club.
South should lead the queen of diamonds at Trick Two. If a defender wins and returns a diamond, South tries to take the A-J to pitch a loser. Since the chance of a 4-3 break is 62 percent, that is the superior play.
DAILY QUESTION
You hold: S 6 4 H K J 10 6 D K 8 3 C A 10 8 3. Your partner opens one spade, you respond two clubs, he rebids two spades and you try 2NT. Partner next bids three diamonds, What do you say?
ANSWER: To persist with 3NT would be a breach of discipline. Your partner’s auction warns against notrump. He has six spades, four diamonds and minimum values. Bid three spades or, with a timid partner, four spades. Partner may hold A K 7 5 3 2, 8 4, A 7 5 4, 2.
North dealer
Both sides vulnerable
NORTH
S 3
H Q 9 8 5 3 2
D A Q J 4
C K Q
WEST
S 9 8 7
H A 7
D 10 9 7 6
C J 9 6 2
EAST
S 6 4
H K J 10 6
D K 8 3
C A 10 8 3
SOUTH
S A K Q J 10 5 2
H 4
D 5 2
C 7 5 4
North East South West
1 H Pass 1 S Pass
2 H Pass 4 S All Pass
Opening lead — C 2
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