The last time the sports staff of The New York Times and assorted friends gathered to make the annual set of NBA preseason predictions, we got some things right.
Ahead of the 2019-20 season, several of us thought that Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks would repeat as the NBA’s Most Valuable Player. (Yawn.) Others predicted that the Oklahoma City Thunder would have a surprisingly successful season after a summer in which they traded Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers, and that the Memphis Grizzlies’ Ja Morant would win the league’s Rookie of the Year Award over Zion Williamson of the New Orleans Pelicans.
But no one predicted that the Los Angeles Lakers would win the championship — let alone advance to the NBA Finals. (The Clippers were the unanimous choice to come out of the West.) Or that the Lakers’ title run would come after the arrival of something called the “coronavirus,” which would suspend the season for four months before resuming in a spectator-free bubble at Walt Disney World outside of Orlando, Florida.
The point being: Predictions are difficult, and sometimes impossible. But that is not about to stop us from trying again.
Here is a look at some of our highly unscientific picks and prognostications for the season ahead:
(The New York Times does not permit its staff to vote for the official NBA awards.)
THE PREDICTORS
Jonathan Abrams, sports reporter
Harvey Araton, Hall of Fame sportswriter
Jonah Bromwich, staff writer
Scott Cacciola, sports reporter
Sopan Deb, sports reporter
Evan Easterling, senior staff editor
Shauntel Lowe, NBA editor
Marc Stein, Hall of Fame sports reporter
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Abrams: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Araton: Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
Bromwich: Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers)
Cacciola: Stephen Curry (Warriors)
Deb: LeBron James (Lakers)
Easterling: Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
Lowe: LeBron James (Lakers)
Stein: Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
Why Curry? “He’s back. The Warriors won’t be title contenders without Klay Thompson. But they’ll be in the thick of the playoff race with Curry putting on nightly shows.” — Cacciola
Why Lillard? “The smart pick here is Kevin Durant or Luka Doncic, but I love Lillard, everyone else loves Lillard and if the Blazers crack the top five in the West, he’s got a great chance at it.” — Bromwich
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Abrams: Obi Toppin (Knicks)
Araton: Immanuel Quickley (Knicks)
Bromwich: Isaac Okoro (Cavaliers)
Cacciola: Tyrese Haliburton (Kings)
Deb: James Wiseman (Warriors)
Easterling: LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
Lowe: LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
Stein: Deni Avdija (Wizards)
Why Ball? “More offense will run through Ball than rookies on teams that are closer to contention, like James Wiseman in Golden State, or joining ready-made tandems, like Anthony Edwards, who’ll play alongside Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell in Minnesota. In limited preseason action, he showed signs his passing ability will translate to the NBA, a skill that will be augmented by playing with Gordon Hayward and Devonte’ Graham.” — Easterling
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Abrams: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Araton: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Bromwich: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Cacciola: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Deb: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Easterling: Joel Embiid (Sixers)
Lowe: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Stein: Anthony Davis (Lakers)
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
Abrams: Dennis Schröder (Lakers)
Araton: Caris LeVert (Nets)
Bromwich: Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets)
Cacciola: Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets) or Caris LeVert (Nets)
Deb: Caris LeVert (Nets)
Easterling: Tyler Herro (Heat)
Lowe: Caris LeVert (Nets)
Stein: Caris LeVert (Nets)
Why the best sixth man will come from the Nets: “Whichever guard coach Steve Nash chooses to bring off the bench is going to produce big numbers for a team that has all the components for a title run.” — Cacciola
MOST IMPROVED
Abrams: Lonzo Ball (Pelicans)
Araton: Tyler Herro (Heat) narrowly beats out his teammate Bam Adebayo
Bromwich: Deandre Ayton (Suns)
Cacciola: Deandre Ayton (Suns)
Deb: Rui Hachimura (Wizards)
Easterling: OG Anunoby (Raptors)
Lowe: Tyler Herro (Heat)
Stein: Christian Wood (Rockets)
Wild Prediction: “John Wall will have a bounce-back season, leading a James Harden-less Houston Rockets team to fringe playoff contention.” — Abrams
COACH OF THE YEAR
Abrams: Monty Williams (Suns)
Araton: Erik Spoelstra (Heat)
Bromwich: Steve Nash (Nets)
Cacciola: Steve Kerr (Warriors)
Deb: Steve Nash (Nets)
Easterling: Michael Malone (Nuggets)
Lowe: Monty Williams (Suns)
Stein: Steve Nash (Nets)
Why Nash? “The Nets and the Clippers remind me of each other a bit: superteams assembled in the last normal offseason, with sky-high potential and possibly combustible chemistry. The Nets will overcome the inevitable Kyrie Irving-related distractions and Nash will get credit for making it all run smooth-ish.” — Bromwich
EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR
Abrams: Rob Pelinka (Lakers)
Araton: Sean Marks (Nets)
Bromwich: Rob Pelinka (Lakers)
Cacciola: Rob Pelinka (Lakers)
Deb: Daryl Morey (Sixers)
Easterling: James Jones (Suns)
Lowe: Rob Pelinka (Lakers)
Stein: Rob Pelinka (Lakers)
Wild Prediction: “Tired of paying mega-salaries for meager results, Michael Jordan cashes out as majority owner of the Hornets to go all-in on NASCAR.” — Araton
BEST RECORD IN THE LEAGUE
Abrams: Milwaukee Bucks
Araton: Miami Heat
Bromwich: Milwaukee Bucks
Cacciola: Milwaukee Bucks
Deb: Milwaukee Bucks
Easterling: Milwaukee Bucks
Lowe: Milwaukee Bucks
Stein: Brooklyn Nets
Wild Predictions: What happens to James Harden? Cacciola: The Rockets will wait until the trade deadline to deal James Harden. What’s the rush? Deb: James Harden remains in Houston all season. Easterling: The Indiana Pacers trade for James Harden.
WORST RECORD IN THE LEAGUE
Abrams: Detroit Pistons
Araton: Detroit Pistons
Bromwich: New York Knicks
Cacciola: Cleveland Cavaliers
Deb: Chicago Bulls
Easterling: Cleveland Cavaliers
Lowe: Cleveland Cavaliers
Stein: Cleveland Cavaliers
Wild Prediction: “In the preseason, I watched the Cavaliers surprise Indiana twice, and then totally missed them losing to the Knicks in their next two. That means I’m unjustifiably excited about the Cavs, particularly Collin Sexton and Isaac Okoro. My wild, semi-informed prediction is that Cleveland will be fun to watch for the first time since LeBron left, and — why not? — will sneak into a play-in game.” — Bromwich
BREAKOUT STAR
Abrams: Collin Sexton (Cavaliers)
Araton: Zion Williamson (Pelicans)
Bromwich: Talen Horton-Tucker (Lakers)
Cacciola: Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets)
Deb: Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
Easterling: Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets)
Lowe: Obi Toppin (Knicks)
Stein: Zion Williamson (Pelicans)
Why Williamson? “Fully unleashed on the league.” — Araton
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Abrams: Sixers over Bucks
Araton: Heat over Nets
Bromwich: Nets over Bucks
Cacciola: Celtics over Nets
Deb: Bucks over Nets
Easterling: Heat over Nets
Lowe: Nets over Bucks
Stein: Heat over Nets
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Abrams: Lakers over Trail Blazers
Araton: Lakers over Jazz
Bromwich: Lakers over Clippers
Cacciola: Lakers over Clippers
Deb: Lakers over Warriors
Easterling :Lakers over Mavericks
Lowe: Lakers over Clippers
Stein: Lakers over Clippers
NBA FINALS
Abrams: Lakers over Sixers
Araton: Lakers over Heat
Bromwich: Lakers over Nets
Cacciola: Lakers over Celtics
Deb: Lakers over Bucks
Easterling: Lakers over Heat
Lowe: Lakers over Nets
Stein: Lakers over Heat
Why the Lakers will win again: “I will never again bet against LeBron, even if he runs for president.” — Araton
c.2020 New York Times News Service
