We’ve just learned Illinois again will lose a seat in the U.S. Congress due to population shifts across the country. The Illinois loss wasn’t nearly as severe as had been predicted. Our state’s population shrank by 18,124 people.
But the statewide population release by the Census Bureau, based on the 2020 census count, also revealed that its American Community Survey data for Illinois is flawed and has undercounted people in Illinois. And yet, it is the population estimates in this ACS data our state lawmakers say they will continue to use to draw our new political districts and get them approved in May.
If the lawmakers in the Democratic supermajority intend to use the ACS 2019 one-year estimate, it undercounts the Illinois population by 140,687 people. If lawmakers intend to use the ACS 2019 five-year estimate, it undercounts by 41,877 people.
For an idea of how important 41,877 people are to a state legislative remap, consider that it constitutes nearly half of a state legislative district. For reference, it’s a bit smaller than Oak Park, the hometown of Illinois Senate President Don Harmon. All of Oak Park matters and it should be counted.
We have no idea whether lawmakers are using the ACS one-year estimates or five-year estimates because to date, despite having held nearly 38 redistricting hearings to seek community input, lawmakers haven’t said what data they’ll use to draw our maps.
Still, it’s clear from yesterday’s state population release from the 2020 census that if they use ACS data, they will not count tens of thousands of Illinoisans. Will they be people of color who are missed? Will they be rural or urban? We just don’t know.
Given the importance of a once-in-a-decade count and the unique challenges faced by the 2020 census, the bureau worked to create an adjusted timeline to ensure the count was complete and accurate.
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Illinois stepped up too. Scores of people worked innumerable hours, and the state spent $47.8 million, more than nearly every other state, to reach hard-to-count communities last year. In a statement after the release of the apportionment data, Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s office said the state completed a thorough count. “This effort included a network of 400 organizations, coordinated by 31 regional intermediaries that received grants directly from the state,” the office said. “These boots on the ground conducted direct census outreach and education through an array of channels and in multiple languages.”
Illinoisans who worked the count persevered through a pandemic and civil unrest to make sure all of us would count. At the very end of the monumental national and statewide effort to make sure the census proceeds with an accurate count, Illinois lawmakers are going to skip tens of thousands of us.
There is another way.
As National Conference of State Legislatures employees have advised, lawmakers could seek a court order to set aside the deadlines in our state constitution so that they could wait for the granular, block-level data that clearly is richer and more complete than the Census Bureau’s ACS data.
California already has sought and received court permission to wait for the full census data coming in August and September, and other states are looking to do the same.
Unfair maps that skip scores of Illinoisans will weaken the ability of communities to advocate for themselves and obtain vital resources.
House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch said in a WTTW-Ch. 11 interview Monday that he is pushing for “protecting minority representation and ensuring one person, one vote.” If that’s so, then this is the moment to speak up. Missing 41,877 people could mean missing several communities of color.
The fight for fair maps is central to the struggle for voting rights. It’s about making sure every voice counts and every voice is heard.
Let’s seek court permission to wait for the full census data so we can be assured every Illinoisan will count.
Madeleine Doubek is the executive director of CHANGE Illinois, a nonpartisan nonprofit that works for ethics and efficiency in government.
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