This could be the most boring and predictable yet profitable Oscar telecast you ever saw. How so?
It definitely will be boring because they`ve replaced traditional host Johnny Carson with Jack Lemmon and 10 lackluster cohosts. So say goodbye to Johnny`s classic ad libs, including last year`s (as the show passed the three- hour mark), ”Let`s check the tote board and see how much we`ve raised!”
And the telecast definitely will be predictable inasmuch as there are strong favorites to win in each of the top five categories.
But how about profitable? That`s possible only if you enter and win The Arts` 15th annual Beat Siskel Oscar-guessing contest. The winner will take home a movie stock portfolio worth more than $500. Past winners, by holding on to their stock, have seen their prize double in value over the years.
How do you win? As always, you must beat me and all other entrants by selecting the winners of the top five Oscar categories and by correctly answering our special tie-breaker question that asks you to predict the film that will win the most Oscars and how many it will win. I don`t make a tie-breaker prediction, so even if you agree with my five picks you can still
”Beat Siskel.”
Place your entry on a postal card (postage: 14 cents) or the back of an envelope (postage: 22 cents) and mail it to: Beat Siskel, P.O. Box 4474, Chicago, Ill. 60680.
There will be only one winner and he or she will receive two shares of stock in seven film-related companies: Warner Communications, MGM/UA Entertainment, Walt Disney Productions, Orion Pictures, Coca-Cola (Columbia), Gulf + Western (Paramount), and MCA (Universal).
The Tribune will pay all brokerage costs for buying the stock; you pay if and when you decide to sell.
Before announcing my picks, a few more words about the Oscar show itself, to be broadcast March 25 on ABC-Ch. 7.
There will be two genuinely entertaining highlights: a tribute and special Academy Award to James Stewart, who has won only one Oscar in his lifetime (”The Philadelphia Story,” 1940), and the five nominated songs, which this year for a change are legitimate pop hits. Other than that, you won`t need a sleeping pill on Oscar night to get plenty of safe and restful sleep, sleep, sleep.
And now without further ado, here are the winners of the 57th annual Academy Awards . . . I think.
BEST PICTURE
The best way to predict the Oscars is to begin by eliminating the sure losers and then choose among the possible winners.
”A Soldier`s Story” has no chance to win. Its director, Norman Jewison, couldn`t even earn a nomination himself, the only director of a nominated best picture this year to thus fail.
And, believe it or not, ”A Passage to India” also has little chance of winning. Yes, it`s precisely the sort of classy, noble British production that has won the big prize the last two years in a row (”Chariots of Fire,”
”Gandhi”). But the word I hear from Hollywood is that most people in the film business were bored stiff by the movie.
”Places in the Heart,” the year`s most conventionally heartwarming picture, was a leading contender last fall, but it`s memory grows faint a half-year later.
”The Killing Fields” is fresher in the mind, and audiences nationwide have been rendered silent by its eloquence. But will the conservative old fogies who inhabit much of the academy membership vote for a somewhat anti-American film? I doubt it.
That`s why ”Amadeus” has to be the overwhelming favorite to win as best picture, the second such honor for the producing-directing team of Saul Zaentz and Milos Forman, who swept the Oscars a decade ago with ”One Flew Over the Cuckoo`s Nest.”
”Amadeus” is the kind of classic epic that wins Oscars, allowing the Hollywood establishment to congratulate itself on making a picture that it had absolutely nothing to do with.
BEST ACTOR
It`s going to be an ”Amadeus” night, and that`s in part why F. Murray Abraham will win for his double performance as the young and old jealous court composer Salieri in ”Amadeus.”
Thomas Hulce, who played Mozart, is viewed by mainstream Hollywood as a young actor who should be content simply with a nomination. That`s why Hulce won`t take away enough votes from Abraham to let Albert Finney (”Under the Volcano”) pull an upset.
Jeff Bridges (”Starman”) and Sam Waterston (”The Killing Fields”)
have no chance. Their roles were neither heroic enough nor tragic enough to win an Oscar.
So it`s F. Murray Abraham for sure.
BEST ACTRESS
The lock in this category is Sally Field for ”Places in the Heart.”
This will be her second win in this category in just six years (”Norma Rae,” 1979). What a remarkable career turnaround for Gidget and the Flying Nun!
Field will become only the eighth actress to win two Oscars in the lead category, joining Luise Rainer, Katharine Hepburn, Bette Davis, Ingrid Bergman, Elizabeth Taylor, Glenda Jackson and Jane Fonda.
Judy Davis will be among the many losers that ”A Passage to India”
produces. Vanessa Redgrave gave another special performance in ”The Bostonians,” but the problem is that few Academy voters actually saw the picture.
And Jessica Lange and Sissy Spacek both suffered the same fate–they were in ”save the farm” movies that drew neither box-office success nor rave reviews.
So it`s Sally Field in a runaway.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
It`s a two-horse race between Dr. Haing S. Ngor, a Cambodian refugee who played a Cambodian refugee in ”The Killing Fields,” and veteran actor Adolph Caesar, who played the bigoted, murdered sergeant in ”A Soldier`s Story.”
The size of a supporting role, which can vary widely, often determines the winner. Ngor`s role actually was a costarring role. Caesar dominated his film more than Howard E. Rollins Jr., the nominal star.
Therefore their presence dwarfs that of other nominees who had genuine supporting parts: Ralph Richardson, the lord of the manor in ”Greystoke”;
Pat Morita, the karate master in ”The Karate Kid”; and Chicago`s John Malkovich, the blind boarder in ”Places in the Heart.”
I`m picking Ngor to win because his film is much more popular than Caesar`s. What argues against Ngor is that the academy membership may think he really wasn`t acting and was only just behaving. But then again, a vote for Ngor can be viewed as a vote for world peace (the ”Gandhi” vote, if you will) and that kind of false sentimentality often carries the day in Hollywood.
I pick Ngor to win in the year`s only close race.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Peggy Ashcroft, who played the kindly Mrs. Moore in ”A Passage to India,” has the biggest role among the nominees in this category, a role so big that two critics` associations voted her as best lead actress of the year. She will win, and this will be the only big victory for ”A Passage to India” all night.
Geraldine Page is popular in Hollywood, but she had only one really good scene as a bitter widow in ”The Pope of Greenwich Village.”
Christine Lahti had the second biggest role of those nominated, playing Goldie Hawn`s neighbor and friend in ”Swing Shift.” But the film was a box- office dud, and not enough voters have seen it.
Glenn Close (”The Natural”) and Lindsay Crouse (”Places in the Heart”) had very small, insignificant roles and have no chance.
So it`s Peggy Ashcroft, who also benefits from her recent appearance in a similar role in TV`s ”The Jewel in the Crown.”
Those are my choices. You may disagree, but that`s the point of the contest. So fill out the adjoining entry blank and be sure to answer the tie- breaker question.
Your only hint: Count on it, it`s going to be an ”Amadeus” night.
THE RULES OF THE GAME
If you think you can pick more Academy Award winners than our movie critic, fill in the entry blank below (or write out your answers on separate sheet of paper) and mail it on a postcard or the back of an envelope (do not place it inside another envelope) to: Beat Siskel, Box 4474, Chicago, Ill. 60680. (No purchase required.) Entries must be received by midnight, March 24, the day before the Oscar presentations. The entry with the most correct answers, bearing the earliest postmark, will win our prize. Only one prize will be awarded, so please note our tie-breaker question, which asks you to predict the film that will win the most Oscars and how many it will win. If a tie still remains, the winner will be chosen by a drawing.
The contest begins Monday, March 18, 1985. Any entries postmarked before March 18, 1985, will be considered as postmarked March 18, 1985. All entries must be submitted by U.S. mail. Only one entry per person, and you must enter in your own name. No private-postage metered entries will be accepted. The winner will be announced in the March 31 issue of The Arts.
The Chicago Tribune will not be responsible for entries lost or delayed in delivery, and reserves the right to disqualify any mutilated, altered or illegible entry, or entries that do not comply with these rules.
The winner agrees to allow the use of his or her name and picture by The Chicago Tribune for publicity purposes.
The contest is subject to all federal, state and local laws, and is void where prohibited by law. The winner also assumes any tax liability pursuant to the prize. Chicago Tribune employees and their families are not eligible.
The Chicago Tribune will examine all entries to determine which entry is the winner. By entering this contest, all entrants agree the The Chicago Tribune has the sole right to decide all matters or disputes arising from the contest and that The Chicago Tribune`s determination of the winning entry shall be final and binding.
No entries will be returned. All become the property of The Chicago Tribune.
In fainess to all, The Chicago Tribune cannot discuss this contest by phone, mail or in any other way with contestants.
Copies of the Chicago Tribune are available at the Chicago Public Library.
BEST PICTURE
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
FILM WINNING MOST OSCARS AND HOW MANY
Note: ”Amadeus” and ”Passage to India” received 11 nominations, ”The Killing Field” and ”Places in the Heart” received 7, and ”A Soldier`s Story” received two.
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