A majority of Chicago voters made up their minds about the election for mayor long ago and have only become firmer in their resolve since last month`s primary, hampering Timothy Evans` third-party effort to build a winning coalition, a new Tribune poll shows.
Fifty-four percent of likely voters in the April 4 election said their decision was made before the primary, and the latest poll results indicate the 14-point lead held by Richard M. Daley reflects a Chicago tradition since 1931 of voters sticking with the Democratic nominee in the general election.
Daley leads Evans, candidate of the independent Harold Washington Party, 48 percent to 34 percent among likely voters, according to the poll. Republican Edward Vrdolyak was preferred by 4 percent of the respondents, and 14 percent said they were undecided.
Daley defeated Mayor Eugene Sawyer in the Feb. 28 Democratic primary with 55.4 percent of the vote. The poll found that his cautious, media-oriented general election campaign is locking most of that vote (91 percent) into place for next month, with just 3 percent switching to an opponent.
At the same time, only two-thirds (68 percent) of Sawyer voters are ready now to commit to Evans.
William Daley, the candidate`s brother and top political strategist, has said Daley strategists are counting on the primary election base returning and have concentrated their efforts for the last month on getting primary non-voters to the polls on general election day, when the turnout usually is higher.
Among likely voters who stayed home in February, the survey found that Daley is favored by slightly more than a third (35 percent), as is Evans (37 percent). Nine percent said they prefer Vrdolyak, and 19 percent were still undecided.
While Evans` popularity has rebounded, especially among blacks, he has failed to make inroads into other constituencies that helped elect the late Mayor Washington. Evans` support among black voters is stronger than was Sawyer`s, but survey findings suggest that their rivalry has slowed the coalescing of Washington`s black voting bloc.
Evans also has yet to find a cutting issue-be it Daley`s refusal to debate or warnings about a return to Machine politics-that strips support away from the front-runner.
The task is made harder by Evans` lack of money for advertising.
Vrdolyak, meanwhile, was perceived as a potential spoiler by al-most half of those surveyed. The Republican nominee has become unpopular with all groups since his unsuccessful third-party mayoral challenge to Washington in 1987:
Only 16 percent of those polled view him favorably, compared to 63 percent who view him unfavorably.
The Tribune mayoral poll of 1,320 registered voters was conducted March 16-19, prior to last Tuesday`s televised debate between Evans and Vrdolyak, by Market Shares Corp., Mt. Prospect, and has an error margin of 3 percent.
Since a Tribune survey taken two weeks before the primary, Daley has increased his preference level among white (77 percent), Hispanic (69 percent) and lakefront (70 percent) respondents while staying the same among blacks (8 percent).
Daley was preferred in the pre-primary poll 45 percent to 37 percent over Sawyer, with 17 percent undecided.
And the support has hardened. Daley`s overall ratio of strong-to-soft support has widened in the new poll to nearly 4 to 1 from less than 3 to 1 before the primary, although it is closer to 2 to 1 among lakefront and Hispanic voters.
Furthermore, Daley`s favorable rating has remained steady (55 percent positive to 27 percent negative). He is the only candidate deemed acceptable as mayor by a majority of all racial and ethnic constituencies, and he is viewed overwhelmingly by all groups except blacks as the candidate who ”could do the best job” as mayor.
Nearly two-thirds of lakefront (65 percent) and Hispanic (68 percent)
voters, said Daley would do the best job, almost as large a proportion as among white voters (72 percent). Those are ominious signals for Evans, for those findings nearly mirror Daley`s voter preference and favorability.
The 4th Ward alderman, on the other hand, is preferred by just 16 percent of lakefront voters and 13 percent of Hispanic voters, nearly the same levels recorded for Sawyer in The Tribune`s pre-primary poll. Among likely white voters, Evans` 8 percent support is identical to Daley`s support among blacks. Washington`s victories hinged on his carrying 42 to 46 percent of the lakefront vote and a majority of the Hispanic vote, margins that Sawyer didn`t come close to matching in last month`s primary.
But whereas Sawyer was viewed favorably, regardless of voter preference for Daley, Evans has been shown in polls to be held in low esteem by the key non-black Washington constituencies since December, 1987, shortly after Washington died.
Along the lakefront, only a quarter (23 percent) of the registered voters surveyed had a favorable opinion of Evans, while almost half (49 percent)
viewed him unfavorably. Opinions among Hispanic voters was nearly identical, and among whites it was worse: 18 percent favorable to 57 unfavorable.
While those figures reflect only slight improvements for Evans`
favorability among those voter groups, he has rocketed in stature among black voters with the removal of Sawyer from the picture.
That greater enthusiasm was reflected in poll results showing that more than two-thirds (69 percent) of registered black voters viewed Evans favorably, compared to only 9 percent with an unfavorable opinion.
His popularity among blacks is approaching the peak levels shown in Tribune polls in December, 1987, and last June, before it was eroded by Sawyer`s incumbent-oriented campaign and Evans` decision to bypass the Democratic primary to become a third-party candidate.
Evans, in fact, is more popular with black voters than was Sawyer before the primary, according to the poll. Sawyer`s favorable-to-unfavora ble rating was 61 percent to 16 percent among blacks in The Tribune`s pre-primary poll, with slightly less than two-thirds of likely black voters preferring the mayor over Daley.
Sawyer went on to get most of the black vote, but fewer blacks went to polls than in Washington`s elections. While Evans has already done a better job of solidifying that base, he too will be concerned about the stay-at-home voters.
Evans is preferred by nearly three-quarters (71 percent) of the likely black voters in the new Tribune poll, and his 4 to 1 ratio of strong-to-soft is twice what Sawyer had before the primary.
If Evans has a problem with some black voters, poll results suggest it would be with Sawyer primary supporters holding a grudge about Evans as a factor in the mayor`s 11-point primary loss. Sawyer primary supporters are less certain to participate in the general election than are Daley`s primary voters, and are less certain about voting for Evans.
While 68 percent of the Sawyer voters surveyed say they will cast ballots for Evans, only slightly more than half (51 percent) of them strongly support any candidate in April`s election, and 41 percent said Evans helped spoil Sawyer`s chances in the primary.
Overall, 46 percent of the voters surveyed expressed that view. Among the 35 percent of all blacks who agreed, a third said they disapproved of Evans`
behavior, further evidence that he might not be able to rely on the solid voting bloc that carried Washington to victory in four primary or general elections.
Sawyer has, in turn, refused to endorse Evans, and blacks are divided about whether he did the right thing; 47 percent agreed with Sawyer`s decision and 42 percent disagreed.
While seeking to further repair the split in his voter base, and at the same time cut into the support Daley is hoarding along the lakefront and among Hispanics, Evans has had difficulty finding an issue that works against the front-runner.
Less than half (40 percent overall) of likely voters surveyed in the latest poll agreed with Evans` major theme that the election of Daley, who has campaigned as a progressive leader, would mean a return to the Machine politics practiced by his late father, Mayor Richard J. Daley.
Two-thirds of white ethnic voters (65 percent) disagreed with the assertion, as did more than half of the Hispanic (55 percent) and lakefront
(59 percent) voters. Agreeing with Evans were nearly two-thirds (62 percent) of likely black voters.
But even if it did mean a return to whatever their image of ”the Machine” might be, a majority of those who prefer Daley (59 percent) and a plurality of all white (45 percent) voters indicated it wouldn`t matter to them.
Similarly, Daley`s refusal to debate didn`t seem to give his opponents an opening to exploit. Less than half (49 percent) of all voters surveyed said the tactic bothered them. Those who said they were troubled by the Cook County state`s attorney`s ducking of the debate included 66 percent of black voters, only 31 percent of white ethnic voters and 43 percent of lakefront whites.
If Vrdolyak benefits from Daley`s absence at last week`s debate, it will have to be substantial to make any headway with voters.
His popularity has waned to the point where just 16 percent of all voters view him favorably, compared to 63 percent who hold an unfavorable opinion of the former 10th Ward alderman. Nearly the same figures are reflected in every voting group.
Many poll respondents perceived Vrdolyak as a spoiler-46 percent of voters overall and 42 percent of those preferring Daley-whose candidacy helps Evans` chances. More than half (53 percent) of all voters and nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of the Daley backers said they were opposed to
Vrdolyak`s candidacy if it meant Evans could beat Daley.
The good news for Daley, however, is the finding that more than two-thirds (71 percent) of those who prefer Vrdolyak either did not vote in the Democratic primary or voted for Sawyer, an indication that the Republican is not drawing from Daley`s base.
