A publication titled ”The Most Important Consumer Trends for the 1990s” contains a rather lengthy section headlined ”Hype Alert.”
Hype Alert contradicts much of what we ”know” about the new decade and signals what may be a genuine trend-a movement toward predictions based on reality and statistics rather than self-serving polls, random observation and whimsy.
– We have been told, for example, that the nation will turn its back on materialism and become the ”we” generation.
Hype Alert: ”Americans love their stuff. The facts evidence no indication of decreasing desire for owning goods, and in fact image-consciousness is alive and well and going global.”
– We thought yuppies were dead.
Hype Alert: ”They weren`t that extreme, and they aren`t going to become the MT`s (Mother Teresas) in the 1990s.”
– We waved goodbye to status goods.
Hype Alert: ”The symbols of affluence, paid for by cash or credit, will attract the same types of purchasers and number of purchases they always have.”
– Experts tell us sex is out and romance is in.
Hype Alert: ”Wrong. Sex is the bottom line and romance is nice.”
Only the sobering truth
Eric Miller, publisher of Research Alert and its Hype Alert adjunct, is one trend-watcher who says he offers subscribers and clients sobering truth, rather than ephemeral glitter or wishful thinking.
Based in Queens, N.Y., and working with a staff of nine, Miller, a 40-year-old former market researcher, puts out monthly Research Alerts dealing with important consumer groups (youth, the affluent, minorities) along with a biweekly newsletter spotting general trends. He has been at the task since 1983 and still doesn`t feel he has revolutionized the thinking of most business planners.
”I find people are as much suckers for hype as they have ever been,” he said not long ago. ”I find nobody getting hype-hip. Generally, in the trend
`biz,` people are used to really soft, self-serving hogwash as standard operating procedure.”
Miller prefers to base his observations on statistics and valid research reports. ”Sometimes we find something in the facts that really is pretty startling; and we`re only too happy to clue everyone into it,” he said.
Same old American dad
An instance sprang to mind immediately. ”I`m sure everyone has seen headlines about the `New American Dad` spending more time with the kids, participating in the housework. That, statistically, is just plain wrong.
”Dads are spending incrementally more time with the kids, but the situation still remains virtually unchanged since the Stone Age.”
While Miller and his staff wade through complex demographic surveys and statistical abstracts, a group of 25 trend-watchers in Upstate New York, calling themselves the Socio-Economic Institute, keep a sharp eye on global events.
”We begin looking at trends by looking at the whole world and making connections between different fields,” explained group leader Gerald Celente, who works and resides in woodsy Rhinebeck, N.Y.
”If we`re looking at education, we have to also look at changes in the family,” he said. ”So we see that a so-called education problem may really be a social problem.”
Down come the boundaries
”Everything is integrated; the world is one,” said Celente. ”We begin looking at trends by looking at the world and understanding that the winds of Chernobyl don`t stop at the Soviet borders and that burning down the rain forests in Brazil affects the farmer in Iowa.”
Members of the Socio-Economic Institute, working on behalf of clients in various industries, scrutinize the news media and keep daily records of events covering 187 ”trend categories,” ranging alphabetically from abortion and activism to domestic water supply and WTHP-shorthand for ”why people hate politicians.” (”That last one is our fastest-growing category,” Celente reported.)
”We use a system that comes from the teachings of Friedrich von Schiller, an 18th Century German scholar who said, `In today already walks tomorrow.` We say that current events form future trends.”
Celente chuckles indulgently when he considers the works of the better-known trend touters, such as John Naisbitt (”Megatrends,” ”Megatrends 2000”). ”Naisbitt uses an army-intelligence methodology, which is an oxymoron right there,” Celente said. ”It`s content analysis, which means that the frequency that something is printed, the size of the story, the number of column inches give it a statistical weight.
”We say that`s not accurate, because you could write all you want about Zsa Zsa Gabor slapping a cop or a baby trapped in a well or Pete Rose`s gambling problems, and none of that is really important trend information.”
Sticking with a story
”We`re interested in that story that`s maybe one column-inch long that says 300 people rioted in Venezuela. What was the cause? What`s going on there? We keep following the story,” said Celente. ”The news media jump to the next hot story, we don`t. We follow the old story. We want to see where it`s going.”
The old stories build trends slowly, which could frustrate those in the trend business who feel they must come up with something new and startling at the beginning of each quarter.
Celente has written a book of his own, ”Trend Tracking” ($24.95, Wiley), and it points out that human behavior seldom changes overnight.
”Faith Popcorn (the widely quoted market researcher who heads BrainReserve in New York) talks about `cocooning` and says people are going to cuddle up in their houses and cocoon to get away from social problems,”
Celente pointed out. ”We don`t see that happening at all. People are social by their very nature and they want social integration.
”As a matter of fact, we`re looking at the `90s to be very entertainment-oriented, very social-oriented with a lot of house parties, friends going out with friends.”
A different view
The Socio-Economic Institute puts its faith almost entirely in the knowledge generated by current events. They shun polls (a favorite
BrainReserve technique), because ”a poll is only a snapshot in time, and the focus of the poll is set by the pollsters,” Celente said.
They reject market-research techniques as well, because ”it`s like a laser beam approach; you focus very brightly on a narrow issue.”
The trend business does seem to distribute more light than substance, and even such trend-busters as Research Alert and the Socio-Economic Institute can sound like part of the chorus of hundreds who promise us a peek into the crystal ball.
What may set them apart is their willingness to deliver bad news. John Naisbitt, for one, cheerfully acknowledges that he prefers to report only the upbeat. ”Because the problems of the world get so much attention, we, for the most part, point out information and circumstances that describe the world trends leading to opportunities,” Naisbitt writes in ”Megatrends 2000.”
Celente`s message is far more grim: ”Our system is breaking down at every level-education, drugs, health care, infrastructure, transportation, the economy. All we have to do is look at ourselves and we can see it. It`s like looking in the mirror and seeing ourselves as if through someone else`s eyes. We don`t do that too well in this country.”
Let`s be frank
The plethora of seers may be helping to distort that self-image. And the trendbusters, such neo-realists as Celente and Eric Miller, aren`t above adding their voices to the cacophony. It`s just that their pronouncements tend to be more frank.
”Trends move like glaciers,” Miller said, ”yet with disciplined analysis of the facts, you really can track the present and point to the future-but not with the big, broad paintbrush. Our job is just to spot the simple, factual trends and put in the necessary supporting statistics, so people know what really is going on.”
He does not, however, expect to overcome the hype (”the soundbites of research”) any time soon. In the final analysis, any trend-spotter, hyperbolic or not, must confront an immutable fact: ”The state of this world is so complex that no matter what trend you announce, the opposite is also true,” Miller admitted. ”My difference is that I go back to the statistics and make claims that are appropriate to the facts.” –
