Paul Tsongas` decision about whether to reactivate his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination may be harder to make than the one last month that sent him to the sidelines.
Results of the primary election Tuesday in New York looked encouraging, but the former Massachusetts senator will be pulled in two directions.
Pulling him on one side are supporters and other Democrats unhappy about the prospect of front-runner Bill Clinton or iconoclast Jerry Brown as the presidential nominee. On the other side are Clinton, who has managed to hang on to the lead with bulldog tenacity despite a series of problems, and party insiders troubled by the thought of a brokered convention.
”I think the results (in New York) today are a mandate for him to come back in,” said Lee Gounardes, state director of the Draft Paul Tsongas Committee. ”I don`t think it`s going to be an easy decision for the senator. He won`t do it to be a spoiler.”
Tsongas said Tuesday night that he would announce his decision on Thursday or Friday and that it would be based on a careful analysis of how he and Clinton did in the New York primary.
Tsongas had some impressive results to consider for a candidate who did not actively campaign. His 29 percent of the vote was more than enough to assure him a share of the 244 pledged convention delegates at stake in New York.
However, even though Clinton collected just 4 of every 10 votes among an unenthusiastic electorate-turnout Tuesday was only about 60 percent of the 1988 level-the Arkansas governor`s clear victory may have been enough to discourage Tsongas.
Tsongas declined Tuesday to specify what would lure him back into the race, but he said money would not be a problem.
Winner of the leadoff New Hampshire primary on Feb. 18, Tsongas went on to win a handful of states outside his home region, including Maryland and Washington. But he suspended his campaign after Clinton swept the South on Super Tuesday and then won the Illinois and Michigan primaries on March 17.
Tsongas, a moderate Democrat who pegged his candidacy to a Republican-sounding message of economic growth, had been encouraging New York voters from the sidelines since last week, when he addressed a party dinner in Long Island`s Suffolk County. Tsongas` name remained on the New York ballot after his campaign was suspended.
”I feel my obligation to my message,” Tsongas told reporters Tuesday.
”How do I preserve that? Do I preserve it by running, by not running? Do I preserve it by not being the spoiler, or by going into the convention and giving it to someone else?”
A reactivated Tsongas candidacy would be a long shot to win the 2,145 delegates needed for a first-ballot nomination. But Tsongas said it would be possible if he could swing the 772 super delegates, who are not bound to vote according to primary results.
The next primary is in Pennsylvania on April 28, but it is hardly the place for Tsongas to venture with a retooled campaign. He had already lost in the four largest primary states before New York-Florida, Texas, Illinois and Michigan-and the last two were industrial states like Pennsylvania.
James Carville, Clinton`s campaign strategist, seemed delighted at the prospect of taking on Tsongas` call for a capital gains tax, along with Brown`s proposal for a 13 percent flat tax, in Pennsylvania. (It was Carville who engineered the election victories of Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Robert Casey and Sen. Harris Wofford.)
Gounardes suggested that if Tsongas returns to the race he should devote the next four weeks to fundraising and reorganizing. Then, Gounardes said, Tsongas should focus on June 2, when more than 700 delegates are at stake. Key elections that day will be in California, Ohio and New Jersey.
Larry Douglas, field director for the Tsongas draft effort in New York, said the candidate should emphasize more than his economic message. Tsongas`
stands on education, abortion rights and Jewish issues were played up by the statewide network of some 1,500 volunteers, which coalesced again after their candidate won 20 percent of the primary votes in Connecticut despite having suspended his campaign.
The volunteers raised about $100,000, enough to run some radio ads and a commercial with E.G. Marshall on cable television. Nearly 1,000 supporters held a rally outside the Manhattan office of the Democratic National Committee Monday night but called off a planned march to Madison Square Garden, site of the party`s nominating convention in July.
”There are a lot of Democrats who want to beat George Bush in November, and nominating either Brown or Clinton is suicide,” said Alyse Booth, press secretary for the Draft Tsongas Committee. ”Tsongas has a message that can appeal not only to Democrats, but to liberal Republicans and independents.”
Tsongas voters in New York told reporters they were less than enthusiastic about both Clinton and Brown. ”I`ve been hoping for an open convention, and I hope this will throw it open,” Sandra Schecter, 50, of the Bronx told the Associated Press.
