Bill Clinton`s victory Tuesday in the Pennsylvania primary is the knot in a bow he is tying on the Democratic presidential nomination.
The ribbon may be tattered and spliced, and the Arkansas governor may have been awkward in wrapping up the package, which few Democrats seemed to want. Yet Clinton is close to delivering himself a chance at the White House as a result of his remarkable resilience and a skillful campaign operation.
”It`s not a done deal,” said a cautious Clinton of the nomination as he campaigned for Tuesday`s election. ”But if it does happen, I can say it has been much different than I thought it would be.”
Clinton won in Pennsylvania with 56 percent of the vote, entitling him to well over half of the 169 delegates at stake in the primary. That gives him about 1,498.5 votes of the the 2,145 needed to win the nomination at the Democratic convention.
Clinton was to travel Wednesday to Washington for meetings with Democratic Party leaders in an effort to sway the 534 uncommitted
”superdelegates.” He could then secure the nomination with strong showings in the May 5 and June 2 primaries, where a total of 878 delegates are at stake.
”I`m basically in this position with more delegates and fewer opponents sooner than I thought would be the case, but also with a whole lot more and different kinds of negatives than I expected to have,” Clinton said in an interview.
One of six Democratic hopefuls when the presidential campaign stepped off last autumn, Clinton found himself repeatedly written off as new controversies made his character an issue. He rebounded just as often, dubbing himself the
”Comeback Kid” in New Hampshire, and saw most of his opponents fall away as the primary season progressed.
Keys to his success include the vast political network Clinton has developed during five terms as governor; a fund-raising operation that has raked in $11.7 million in contributions, providing Clinton with cash to accelerate the campaign when things got tough; an operation that understands the mechanical aspects of a presidential primary process; and the candidate himself.
”Every time our back was against the wall, Clinton rose to the occasion,” said Paul Begala, a senior campaign adviser.
Just as important, Clinton was fortunate to be running in ”a relatively weak field,” according to Washington-based political consultant Brian Lunde. ”When he had problems, (they) didn`t defeat him because there was no alternative, no relief valve, that was as well-funded and organized.”
Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder, who could have cut into Clinton`s drawing power with black voters, withdrew before the first primary ballot was cast.
Sens. Tom Harkin of Iowa and Bob Kerrey of Nebraska couldn`t catch on and were overwhelmed by the process, both dropping out shortly after the Georgia primary. Former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas, lacking the organization and resources to compete, suspended his candidacy two days after the March 17 Illinois and Michigan primaries.
”Were they weak, or was (Clinton) strong?” Begala asked. ”Even his worst enemies would say Clinton is one of the strongest, most resilient people ever to run for this office.”
By his own account and those of others, turning points for Clinton along the serpentine campaign trail have been the primaries in New Hampshire, Georgia, Florida, Illinois, Connecticut and, just three weeks ago, New York.
Things appeared bleakest for him, Clinton said, in the week before New Hampshire`s first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 18, in the immediate aftermath of reports that he tried to avoid the Vietnam draft and unsubstantiated tabloid accounts of an extramarital affair.
The other low point was the period between March 24, when he narrowly lost the Connecticut primary to former California Gov. Jerry Brown, and April 7, when he won the New York primary.
During the New York campaign Clinton asserted that he tried marijuana-although he didn`t inhale-and that he had ”forgotten” about receiving a draft induction notice in 1969. His image as ”Slick Willie” was reinforced; although he won the primary, exit polls showed voters hankered for other choices.
”I expected to be attacked on my record . . .,” Clinton said. ”I never expected the kind of depth or the breadth of the personal attacks.”
It has been three weeks since the last primary, but Clinton acknowledged he is still trying to get over the ”cumulative effects” of the New York experience.
”If Pennsylvania goes well, we ought to be back almost to where we were after Michigan and Illinois, although perhaps not quite, since I just took such a beating in the New York process, even though I won,” Clinton said.
The New Hampshire primary demonstrated the Clinton campaign`s strengths, as well as its weaknesses. Falling in the polls and written off by members of the media, Clinton poured money, campaign resources and himself into the final days of the race.
”The people of New Hampshire had suffered so much in the last three years and were so seriously intent on changing the direction of the country, that if I could convince them that I was committed and had a record that supported my commitment, and if I could see enough of them personally, then I had a real chance,” Clinton said.
Exit polls showed that of the one-fifth of New Hampshire voters who met Clinton, 45 percent gave him their votes, twice his overall vote total in the race he lost to Tsongas.
Georgia on March 3, with the full backing of Gov. Zell Miller`s political apparatus, ”was a new beginning,” Clinton said. Other Southern states followed suit a week later on Super Tuesday, carrying their native son by wide margins.
When Kerrey, a Medal of Honor recipient, ineptly campaigned across the country in that period rather than focusing on Georgia and other deeply patriotic parts of the South, it spelled the end of his campaign.
Florida was a key Super Tuesday state, as neutral a battleground for both Tsongas and Clinton as could be found in the region. Pouring money into the effort and sharpening his attack against Tsongas, Clinton previewed the kind of campaign that could make him formidable against Bush in November.
”When Clinton can contrast himself with someone else, when it doesn`t become a referendum on Bill Clinton, he`s going to win,” said David Axelrod, a Chicago media strategist who works for the candidate.
