Seventeen months before Gov. Jim Edgar’s expected re-election bid, the Republican is riding high in polls, but a pack of Democrats is nipping at his heels and a malaise hangs over a significant percentage of voters.
Those are the findings of a new Tribune poll that suggests Edgar’s undeclared candidacy could face a tough challenge next year depending on the opponent and that his task will be to convince a majority of voters that Illinois is back on the right track.
Analyzing the survey results is one of those good news-bad news exercises for the confident Edgar and hopeful Democrats.
The good news for Edgar is that two-thirds of registered voters approve of the job he is doing, he is viewed favorably by three out of every five voters and he leads all six prospective Democratic comers in head-to-head matchups.
The bad news for the governor is that he is getting half, or a little more than half, of the vote in the head-to-head matchups, which is not as comfortable as an incumbent might need-especially one trying to extend an 18-year GOP run in the governor’s office.
Meanwhile, fewer than half of the voters say the state is headed in “the right direction.”
That situation is reminiscent of George Bush, a one-term GOP president whose enviable popularity ratings evaporated within a year as the electorate’s mood about the economy soured and voters began to consider him ineffective.
Bush last November became the first Republican presidential candidate in 24 years to lose Illinois, and Edgar was the president’s state chairman. Democrats have been champing at the bit for a shot at Edgar ever since.
The good news for them is that a continued voter funk and anti-incumbency trends provide an opportunity for the right candidate. The bad news is that the apparent strongest challengers to Edgar, former Atty. Gen. Neil Hartigan and Mayor Richard Daley, haven’t exhibited much interest in running.
Hartigan, who lost to Edgar three years ago, and Daley benefit from being as well known as the governor.
If an election were held now pitting Edgar against either of the two, the results would be the same: the governor would get just half of the vote and Daley or Hartigan, take your pick, would get a third, the poll found.
In both matchups, 17 percent of the voters were undecided or preferred some “other” candidate.
Edgar fared slightly better in hypothetical matchups against Atty. Gen. Roland Burris, Comptroller Dawn Clark Netsch, Treasurer Patrick Quinn and Cook County Board President Richard Phelan, all of whom have said they want to run for the Democratic nomination next March.
The results were as follows: Edgar 53 percent to 31 percent against Burris; Edgar 55 percent to 23 percent over Netsch; Edgar 56 percent to 25 percent against Quinn; and Edgar 57 percent to 24 percent over Phelan, the survey found.
About a fifth of the voters were undecided or preferred an “other” option in each case.
Nevertheless, the incumbent governor doesn’t have a big comfort zone.
The race is sure to tighten once the Democratic nominee emerges, and an analysis of polling and election results in more than 200 contests with incumbents showed that most or all undecided voters appear to wind up in the challenger’s camp.
The Tribune poll of 1,152 registered Illinois voters was taken May 13-18 by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect and has an error margin of 3 percentage points.
Later this month, Edgar will wind up his third legislative session since taking office and a gubernatorial campaign that has been revving up since last November will be off and running.
A top Edgar strategist said that he was “concerned, not worried,” about the election still more than a year away. The governor’s term could be characterized as “stewardship and not leadership,” he said.
“We know what that does to guys,” the operative added, referring to Bush’s experience.
Edgar’s stewardship, the poll found, has been very acceptable to voters. Sixty-four percent said they approved of the job Edgar is doing as governor while only 30 percent disapproved.
His job approval was highest in the suburbs and collar counties, areas of GOP strength, and Downstate-ranging between 66 percent and 71 percent; even a majority of Democrats statewide, 53 percent, gave him high marks.
His lowest approval rating was a 50 percent in heavily Democratic Chicago, largely because only 37 percent of black voters gave him a passing grade. In the city’s white ethnic wards, 58 percent of voters approved of the job Edgar is doing.
And Illinoisans have maintained the good feeling about Edgar that was one of his chief assets in his narrow victory over Hartigan in 1990. Sixty percent said they have a favorable opinion of Edgar, compared with 19 percent who had an unfavorable view. Again, it was in Chicago and among black voters where opinion of him was lowest.
But while Edgar’s political standing appears solid, poll results suggest he could be undermined by an electorate worried about its own well-being.
Asked what they think about where the state is headed, 44 percent of voters said it is in the “right direction” and 38 percent said it is “on the wrong track.” Voters who are black, middle-aged and at either end of the income spectrum are more apt to say things are on the wrong track, the poll found.
Again, it can spell trouble for an incumbent if the “right direction” figure drops much further below 50 percent.
Edgar, however, said he looks for right track-wrong track trends and not the numbers per se.
“Last September it was terrible, the worst I’d ever seen,” he said of the voter self-interest quotient. “It’s better now. Bush’s problem was that voters didn’t think he was trying to address their problems or that he even understood them.”
His campaign, Edgar said, will underscore that he doesn’t share Bush’s weakness.
As for the governor’s potential rivals, the Tribune poll made these findings:
– Hartigan lost to Edgar by 84,000 votes out of the more than 3 million cast in 1990 and remains coy about a potential rematch. Still known by 92 percent of voters. Opinion of Hartigan is only 44 percent favorable, compared wlith 14 percent unfavorable. Hartigan’s strengths are in holding Edgar to slightly less than half of the Downstate vote and beating him by 59 percent to 22 percent among blacks statewide.
– Daley has repeatedly dismissed rumors that he is interested in running for an office his late father, Mayor Richard J. Daley, once considered seeking. Known to 96 percent of all voters, 53 percent have a positive view of the mayor while 18 percent have a negative opinion. The mayor is the only Democrat who is viewed as favorably as Edgar by voters in suburban Cook and the collar counties, and Daley gets more of the burgeoning suburban vote-34 percent-against the governor than anyone else.
– Burris, the senior Democratic constitutional officer, was the first to declare his gubernatorial intentions last fall. On paper the strongest of the remaining four likeliest contenders, he is known to 80 percent of voters; 43 percent expressed a favorable opinion of him and 9 percent had an unfavorable view. The first African-American to win major statewide office in Illinois, he takes most black votes in a race against Edgar; like Daley and Hartigan, he holds the incumbent to less than half of the Cook County vote; and like Hartigan, he holds Edgar to less than half of the Downstate vote.
– Netsch has formed an exploratory committee for governor, but conventional wisdom has been that she will opt to run for attorney general. Only 55 percent of registered voters recognized the first woman elected to Illinois constitutional office, and they were nearly evenly split between those with a favorable opinion and those who have formed no opinion of her.
– Quinn led the statewide Democratic ticket in 1990 and has been active statewide for most of the last two decades. He is known to 68 percent of voters, and, like Netsch, opinion is split between those who view him positively and those with no opinion of him. As with all the Democrats, he fares best against Edgar among poorer voters.
– Phelan is known to 67 percent of voters, but nearly all of his name identity is in the Chicago area. But the County Board president has problems in his own back yard. While he is known to nearly all-92 percent-of Cook County voters, just 35 percent have a favorable opinion and 27 percent have an negative opinion of him. Fewer than half, 44 percent, of Cook County voters approve of the job Phelan is doing as County Board president and 26 percent disapprove.
