Thanks to the NFL’s scheduling formula, the Bears wound up with the third-easiest schedule, based on last year’s records.
While that’s an advantage, the Bears still must wrestle with the fact that they haven’t done well against their NFC Central rivals in coach Dave Wannstedt’s two seasons. They’re 6-10 against NFC Central teams, 10-6 outside the division. The head-to-head matchups in the Central are the Bears’ most important games because they figure most prominently in tiebreakers.
And the Bears open the season with games against NFC Central rivals Minnesota, Green Bay and Tampa Bay.
It weighs in the Bears’ favor that the Vikings and Packers must come to Soldier Field for those early showdowns. Hard to argue that must-wins are at the front of the schedule, not the back end, but it definitely seems that way.
“I’m never one to say this is a game you have to win,” Wannstedt said. “We proved that last year. You’ve got to play somebody. If it’s Minnesota, it’s Minnesota. If it’s Green Bay, it’s Green Bay.
“To some degree, however, it will probably be true that the season’s tempo is set by the first three games. Last year, though, there was no question we got better as a team as the year went on.
“I’m sure those first three games will be an indication to everybody. But is it an indication of how things will end up?”
In their non-division part of the schedule, the Bears should be 6-2 at worst.
Too high an expectation? Not really, not when you consider that they play the expansion Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars, while the remaining six games are against teams that were a combined 37-59 last season.
From this half-dozen, only the New York Giants (9-7) and Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) posted winning records. Even if they should beat the Bears, Wannstedt’s team will be favored to beat Houston, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and St. Louis, not to mention the Panthers and Jaguars.
If the Bears can’t beat expansion franchises, that will call their entire season into question.
Not many people are buying Wannstedt’s explanation that his team’s schedule can’t truly be measured as tough or easy until you see his injury situation, compared with his opponents’, the week before each game.
Unless the Bears have major medical problems, no one is going to let Wannstedt get away with that excuse. Wannstedt has a problem here, no question.
Based on his schedule, failure is unacceptable.
The Bears’ opponents’ winning percentage in 1994 was just .469 (105-119). Only Jacksonville and Carolina are judged to have an easier road. Cleveland and the New York Jets are tied with the Bears for the third-softest schedule. The Jets face fewer opponents that were playoff teams last season.
SIDELINES
Erik Kramer had the second-highest passer rating among NFC quarterbacks in the preseason. Kramer’s rating of 84.5 trailed only Detroit’s Scott Mitchell, who had a mark of 112.6.
Time of possession was a telling statistic for the Bears last season. In their wins, their average time of possession was 35:33. In their losses, it was 27:36. In Steve Walsh’s 11 starts, the Bears’ average time of possession was 34:02, and they won 8 of those 11 games. In Erik Kramer’s five starts, the average time of possession was 27:45 and the Bears won only one of those five games.
Pass defense continues to be a Bears strong suit. The Bears finished in the top 10 against the pass for the ninth time in the last 11 years, coming in fifth in 1994.
The Bears were called for pass interference only three times last season.
Wonder why the Bears made a running back their top priority in the draft? In six of their 16 regular-season games last year, they rushed for fewer than 70 yards as a team. The Bears’ longest run from scrimmage last year was a 25-yard touchdown rush by Lewis Tillman.
On first-down plays last season, the Bears called a running play 55.3 percent of the time and went for a passing play the other 44.7 percent of the time. Of those first-down running plays, 9.9 percent were to the left, 18.9 percent were to the right and 71.2 percent were up the middle. That 71.2-percent mark was by far the highest such tendency rate in the NFL. The only other team to even approach that number was the Atlanta Falcons, who ran 61.7 percent of their first-down running plays up the middle.
The Bears didn’t go for the home run ball on first down too often last year. In fact, of their first-down pass plays only 8.0 percent were attempts of 21 yards or more. That tied Minnesota for the lowest rate of first-down bomb attempts in the NFL.
The conservative approach wasn’t just confined to first-down situations; the Bears didn’t attempt many big plays, period. Last season, the Bears tried only 44 bombs–defined as passes thrown at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage–the lowest total in the NFL. Remarkably, the second-lowest number of bomb attempts belonged to the San Francisco 49ers, who tried just 48. Here’s the difference: the Bears connected on only 11 of their 44 attempts (a 25 percent success rate), while the Niners hit on 23 of 48 (48 percent).
The Bears have not won a road game in December since Dec. 27, 1987. This year, the Bears play at Detroit on Dec. 4 and at Cincinnati on Dec. 10.
The leading active receiver on the Bears all-time list is Jeff Graham, who caught 68 passes in 1994, his first year with the Bears. Tom Waddle had previously held that distinction, but retired with 173 receptions as a Bear. Waddle is 17th on the all-time receiving roll.
