The stunning reversal of Democratic fortunes in the U.S. Senate came into sharp focus Monday as Georgia’s Sam Nunn, long among the most influential of party moderates, told supporters he would not seek a fifth term in 1996.
Nunn becomes the eighth Democratic senator to announce his retirement since the 1994 congressional election, further dimming his party’s hopes of retaking the Senate next year.
Worse, from the Democrats’ perspective, Nunn’s departure would appear to signal the end of the long electoral run of conservative Southern Democrats who dominated the Senate for decades.
At 57, Nunn joins Sens. Paul Simon of Illinois, David Pryor of Arkansas, Bill Bradley of New Jersey, James Exon of Nebraska, J. Bennett Johnston of Louisiana, Howell Heflin of Alabama and Claiborne Pell of Rhode Island in closing out their Senate careers.
The dour Georgian left with an attack on the pervasive, demeaning role of fundraising in politics and, noting his age, said he did not want to stay in office until “recalled by the grim voter or the Grim Reaper.”
But a number of statewide surveys indicated that Nunn-like Pryor, Exon, Bradley, Johnston and Simon-would be well-positioned to fund campaigns and be re-elected, even with an unpopular Democratic president atop the 1996 ticket.
“It’s no longer a question of Democrats taking back the Senate,” said analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes a nonpartisan political newsletter.
“Nobody likes serving in the minority without much hope of getting back in the majority. The question is, does this further demoralize Democrats on the (Capitol) Hill?”
By the numbers, there are sound reasons for congressional Democrats to be demoralized.
On the night President Clinton was elected, his party held a 58-42 advantage in the Senate. Now, even with the forced retirement last month of Sen. Bob Packwood (R-Ore.), Republicans maintain a 53-46 edge.
They seized their majority through a remarkable run of victories in open seats and special elections-and with the aid of a pair of party switchers-during the past 34 months.
Shortly after the 1992 election, Democrats lost the Senate seat held by Texan Lloyd Bentsen, who joined Clinton’s Cabinet, and lost a special election in Georgia, where incumbent Democrat Wyche Fowler was defeated.
In 1994 Republicans won the Senate seats of four retiring Democrats-Howard Metzenbaum of Ohio, Donald Riegle of Michigan, David Boren of Oklahoma and Dennis DeConcini of Arizona.
Since the 1994 election, two Democratic senators, Richard Shelby of Alabama and Colorado’s Ben Nighthorse Campbell, have switched parties.
Nowhere is the Democratic arithmetic more grim than in the 11 states of the Old Confederacy, where the GOP boasts a majority of governors, senators and House members.
“There really is no market for moderate Democrats in the South any longer,” said Merle Black, a political scientist at Atlanta’s Emory University who has written extensively on Southern politics.
“While Nunn remains popular, voters don’t want to hear that message from a Democrat. They’d simply rather vote for a Republican.”
Nunn’s home state, where he won re-election three times by wide margins, offers a sobering message for national Democrats.
Five years ago, Georgia had two Democratic senators-Nunn and Wyche Fowler-and nine Democratic House members in a 10-member delegation.
The lone GOP lawmaker was Newt Gingrich, now speaker of the House.
Since reapportionment added a House seat, there are eight Republicans in the 11-member Georgia delegation. And Nunn is the only white Democrat holding federal office in the state.
In the formerly “Solid South,” only two states, Arkansas and Louisiana, have a pair of Democratic senators. And with Democratic retirements in those states, Republicans are expected to be more than competitive in filling those seats.
Not surprisingly, Republicans hailed Nunn’s leave-taking.
Sen. Alfonse D’Amato (R-N.Y.), who chairs the GOP Senate Campaign Committee, said, “Sen. Nunn’s decision to retire shows the Democratic Party is in full retreat in Georgia and throughout the South.”
In recent years, GOP victories in the South have led to the emergence of Southerners in party leadership, including Mississippi-born Haley Barbour, head of the Republican National Committee.
Another Mississippi native, Sen. Trent Lott, is No. 2 in the GOP Senate leadership and would likely become majority leader should Sen. Bob Dole step aside to pursue his White House ambitions.
Gingrich’s top lieutenants, Reps. Richard Armey and Tom DeLay, are Texans. And Republicans from Louisiana, Texas and Virginia chair the powerful Appropriations, Ways and Means and Commerce committees.
At the statehouse level, the Republican National Committee claims that more than 130 state legislators have crossed over to the GOP since the 1992 election.
In Georgia, three House GOP members have expressed interest in succeeding Nunn, who was elected to the Senate in 1972 and rose to become a leading conservative voice in his party and a powerful player on national defense policy.
But Nunn’s influence waned with another Democrat in the White House, and the GOP congressional landslide in 1994 cost him his chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee.
Nunn was uncomfortable with Clinton-some White House loyalists suggest it was simple political jealousy on the Georgian’s part-and opposed the president’s campaign pledge to end the ban on homosexuals in the military.
In announcing his decision, Nunn did not mention Clinton, who issued a statement praising the Georgian “for his wise counsel and personal friendship. . . .”
“I know in my heart that it is time to follow a new course,” Nunn told more than 100 friends and politicians packed in the chamber of the Georgia state House of Representatives.
Nunn said he expected to return to the practice of law.
“I have had no serious discussions nor serious deliberations on either running for governor or running for president,” Nunn said.
