At a meeting this month in Atlanta, some college basketball coaches tried to put together an all-star team from the 1970s and 1980s. The condition: players who had gone on to the NBA after only two years in college.
“We could only come up with one name that was successful,” said Jim Haney, executive director of the National Association of Basketball Coaches. “Magic Johnson.”
Michael Jordan stayed in school for three years. So did Hakeem Olajuwon.
Once the province of a few high-profile juniors, the early departure to the pros has become the rage among youngsters. Of the 20 players who have declared themselves draftable–Sunday is the deadline to file for the June 26 draft–10 are not yet juniors. Two are not yet in college.
The exodus of underclass talent to the NBA may be the most critical issue facing the college game. There’s a perception that all the best players–and even some of the merely good ones–are taking off too soon, robbing college hoops of its marquee attractions.
“College basketball coaches are like the little Dutch boy,” said Wake Forest coach Dave Odom. “But the dike is springing leaks faster than we can put fingers in it.”
Added Kansas Athletic Director Bob Frederick, chairman of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee: “I’m not sure what the solution is, but a lot of people want to do something about it.”
Just a few years ago, the list of players leaving early was a “Who’s Who” of star collegians. This year’s list is a “Who’s That?”
Ever heard of Mark Sanford? He’s a 6-foot-9-inch swingman at Washington who made the first-team All-Pac-10 team as a sophomore. Ever heard of Kevin Simpson? He’s a junior college hot shot who signed with Providence but has decided to turn pro instead.
There are, to be sure, some giants in the draft: junior Marcus Camby of Massachusetts, the consensus national Player of the Year; Stephon Marbury of Georgia Tech, who is one year out of high school; and Georgetown guard Allen Iverson, a brilliant sophomore.
Of the top pro prospects with eligibility remaining, only Kansas senior Jacque Vaughn, an honor student, and Wake Forest junior Tim Duncan have announced that they will stay in school.
This is one sort of turnover a coach can’t prevent.
It may have a ripple effect on recruiting, although coaches say they won’t shun a player just because he has pro potential. Better to have a superstar for two years than none.
“Quite frankly, I think the college game is in serious trouble,” said Kentucky coach Rick Pitino, who last week bade farewell to former Mt. Carmel star Antoine Walker after only two seasons. “I think the NBA is in serious trouble in the long run.”
But for years, the top programs have used their NBA connections as a selling point with recruits. If Louisville’s Samaki Walker, for example, wanted to learn about his school’s history of producing pro talent, he could turn to this year’s basketball media guide, which devotes five full pages to Cards who played in the NBA.
Coaches, administrators and talent scouts cite a number of factors for the rush to the pros.
One is the towering success of recent early-departers such as Jason Kidd, Jerry Stackhouse and Juwan Howard.
Another is misinformation. NCAA rules bar contact with agents, but officials suspect that players base decisions to come out early on grapevine information.
“In general, it sounds to me like there are a lot of young men who have been listening to agents talking, and they’re maybe not getting the best information,” Frederick said.
Another is the NCAA rule that allows collegians to test the draft once without sacrificing their eligibility. Under the rule, a player has 30 days after the draft to announce his intention to return to school. He may negotiate with the club that drafts him, but if he signs with an agent, he loses his college eligibility.
“What this has done is act as a catalyst,” the NABC’s Haney said. “(Players) have people in high school telling them, `Hey, you can play in the NBA. Just give college a year or two and then test the waters.’ “
Few players have exercised the option to return. In 1994 and 1995, 35 underclassmen and one high schooler turned pro without exhausting their college eligibility; 25 were selected in the draft. Only two of the draftees returned to college.
Another reason for players to leave early is tightened NCAA academic standards. Academics played a role in Kevin Garnett’s decision to go directly to the NBA from Farragut Academy in Chicago, and it is said to be a factor for several players of this spring’s crop. One draft prospect reportedly needs to earn 36 hours of credit this summer to be eligible next autumn.
Garnett made an immediate impact as a starter for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Given his success, few draft observers were surprised when a pair of prep stars–Kobe Bryant of Ardmore, Pa., and Jermaine O’Neal of Columbia, S.C.–declared for the draft this year.
It’s not hard to understand why anyone would turn pro early. At a time when CBS is paying NCAA schools $1.7 billion to televise the men’s basketball tournament, players wonder what’s in it for them. The lure of an academic scholarship, worth $30,000 or so at most schools, pales by comparison to a six- or seven-digit salary in the NBA.
Money was the motivation mentioned by several players who announced their decisions in recent weeks. Iverson, 20, cited responsibility to care for his year-old daughter and a sister who suffers from seizures, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, who is taking off after one year at Cal, said his family needed the money.
When the NBA installed its rookie salary cap–$9.3 million over three years–it was supposedly aimed at deterring early jumpers. But fourth-year free agency provides the shot at the jackpot, so long as the player lives up to his billing.
“It appears that this is why the agents are saying you need to sign early–get the three years out of the way as soon as you can,” Frederick said.
Of course, for every millionaire there’s a player who doesn’t reap the benefits of leaving early. Coaches say that as stories of heartbreak filter through the media, future collegians may decide to wait before jumping into the crowded NBA pool.
“I think we’ll see sanity return,” Odom said. “I think that in the next two or three years, we’re going to have some live examples of people jumping the gun.”
There already are some cases. Scotty Thurman, a star guard on Arkansas’ 1994 national titlist, is languishing in the CBA. Former King High School star Rashard Griffith, who left Wisconsin after two years, wound up in Turkey after being drafted by Milwaukee.
The NBA’s official line is that it can’t prevent anyone from trying to make a living. But one NBA official, who asked not to be identified, said, “We don’t want these kids. They can’t play in the NBA yet. It’s madness, but what can you do about it?”
One answer might be for teams not to draft unprepared youngsters. But with overall talent as weak as it has been in years, teams are tempted to take risks.
For now, college coaches hope they’re seeing an aberration. “If this is just a couple-of-years trend, then it’s not a problem,” Purdue coach Gene Keady said. “But if it goes on for five years, we could all be in trouble.”
