When Democratic secretary of state candidate Tim McCarthy challenged the candidacy petitions of rival candidate Penny Severns, he said doing otherwise would be condoning fraud.
But a new Tribune poll shows that the real effect of removing Severns from the March 17 Democratic primary ballot is to significantly improve McCarthy’s prospects to win the nomination against Cook County Recorder of Deeds Jesse White.
Severns, a state senator from Decatur, was ordered off the ballot last week by the State Board of Elections due to irregularities in her nominating petitions. She is expected to decide soon whether to appeal the board’s ruling in court.
The Tribune poll found that if Severns had remained in the race, White would have had the backing of 35 percent of likely Democratic voters compared with 24 percent for McCarthy and 22 percent for Severns. In addition, 19 percent were undecided.
But with Severns out of the race, White’s lead dwindles. In a head-to-head match up with McCarthy, the Orland Park police chief, White received the support of 39 percent of the voters surveyed and McCarthy had 34 percent.
The poll results support the theory that White, an African-American, benefited heavily from having two white opponents running against him.
In a three-way race, white voters were divided almost equally among McCarthy, Severns, White and undecided. But among African-American voters, White had 79 percent support.
With Severns out, White continues to have the support of 77 percent of African-American voters–but McCarthy narrows the overall gap by gaining 40 percent of the vote among whites.
In the Republican secretary of state race, the poll showed former state Rep. Al Salvi of Wauconda had the support of 55 percent of likely GOP primary voters. His challenger, state Rep. Robert Churchill of Lake Villa, had 23 percent. An additional 22 percent were undecided.
The poll results show that Churchill still suffers from lack of name recognition among voters. Much of Churchill’s support appeared to come from Republicans who disliked Salvi rather than from those supportive of Churchill, the poll showed.
Salvi, who won the 1996 GOP U.S. Senate nomination but lost to Democratic Rep. Richard Durbin, continues to hold better than a three-to-one ratio of support among self-described conservative voters.
In the Democratic race for lieutenant governor, the poll showed former state treasurer Patrick Quinn has the support of 47 percent of the voters surveyed. His challenger, Kane County Coroner Mary Lou Kearns, was supported by 27 percent. An additional 26 percent were undecided.
