The stunning news spread quickly Wednesday through the Republican ranks of a House rampant with speculation over who its next leader will be: Bill Paxon is retiring.
The 43-year-old GOP congressman from New York not only was a key architect of the GOP’s 1994 capture of Congress but was a rising Republican star regarded by many of his colleagues as House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s successor.
So, when Paxon said Wednesday he will quit at the end of this year to devote time to his family, GOP members at first reacted with shock and surprise, then immediately began speculating about what his departure will mean to the party and the House if, as many expect, Gingrich steps down to run for president.
The “post-Newt world” is a subject of great fascination among Republicans in the House, largely because– as Illinois GOP member John Shimkus put it–they still are struggling with their majority status and who will articulate their vision in the future.
With Paxon out of the picture and Gingrich reportedly considering resignation from his post sometime in 1999, who will lead and what direction the party will take have become more of an open question.
For the immediate future, Paxon’s resignation strengthens Gingrich and Majority Leader Richard Armey (R-Texas). Armey had been weakened by his participation, along with Paxon, in a failed attempt to oust Gingrich a year ago. Until his announcement Wednesday, Paxon was believed to be preparing to challenge Armey as majority leader.
Most members accepted at face value Paxon’s explanation that he was quitting to spend time with his family. He is married to former Rep. Susan Molinari (R-N.Y.), who quit last year to anchor a CBS Saturday morning television news show.
But some noted that Paxon had been told by several members that he could not win the race against Armey, who in the past week moved aggressively to rebuff the potential challenge.
Paxon told reporters that he believes Gingrich “absolutely, categorically” will leave his post next year and run for president. Another member said he believes Gingrich might step down after serving a few months in 1999.
With Paxon leaving, some Republicans say Armey has the inside track in any race for speaker, although he rankled many members for his role in the anti-Gingrich effort and, as one Republican source put it, “leaves a bad taste” because of the ideological edge he imparts.
Republicans wonder whether the House would be more or less moderate with Gingrich and Paxon gone, and whether the infighting will stop.
Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) said all of the current GOP leaders, except Gingrich, will face a challenge in the next Congress because they did not demonstrate they were team players.
Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.) said the party in the House has a “good crop of junior members”–now largely unknown–who will be able to assume the leadership mantle in the next century.
One who rose to the top of the list in speculation is Rep. Bob Livingston (R-La.), the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee who only last week reversed course and decided to stay in Congress rather than retire.
Holding court with reporters in the House cloakroom just outside the chamber, Livingston said that, if Gingrich decides to quit and run for president, he would make a run for the speakership. Livingston is well liked by many Republicans, though some cited a quick temper as one of his drawbacks.
“I’m a Newt Gingrich loyalist,” Livingston said. “I support Newt as long as he wants to be speaker. After that, assuming I’m around, I’ll run for speaker.”
Gingrich, who is reported to have told friends he will run for president in 2000, has been trying to soften his image and has reached out to House members after the aborted coup attempt last year.
“Newt is doing great right now,” said Rep. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “Things couldn’t be better.”
But Graham said that, with Gingrich floating a presidential bid, “I think people are thinking about a post-Newt world.”
And that includes finding a photogenic leader who can articulate the GOP message, he said.
Is Armey photogenic, he was asked. “Dick Armey is more photogenic than I am,” Graham said, ducking the question.
Although he said the party’s agenda is likely to remain conservative, Graham and other Republicans are increasingly aware that the personal style of their leaders, and the ability to communicate in a land dominated by television, are important job qualifications.
In addition to leading the party, “it has to be someone who can articulate, in the media age, the message of our party well,” said Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La.).
When President Clinton attacked Republicans in 1996 for their efforts to control the growth in Medicare and for a government shutdown, the GOP felt itself on the defensive. Gingrich’s flamboyant, confrontational tactics were blamed by many.
Paxon was much admired for helping to forge the Republican victory in 1994. He was in charge of the National Republican Campaign Committee, which raised funds and doled them out to GOP candidates. His smooth performances in front of the camera also stamped him as a leader who could effectively sell the conservative agenda.
But the coup attempt against Gingrich last year scarred Paxon, who resigned his leadership post; dissension within party ranks and unhappiness with the leadership lingered.
This year, Paxon has staked out a more independent legislative course, proposing tax bills and other measures that departed from leadership positions.
“This announcement caught a lot of us off guard,” Weller said. “We all thought there’s a day coming when Bill Paxon would be speaker and Denny Hastert would be the majority whip.” Hastert, an Illinois Republican, is now chief deputy whip.
Tauzin said he met with Paxon on Tuesday and told him that Gingrich intended to support Armey in the race for majority leader and were going to run as a team.
“I didn’t want him to see him hurt,” Tauzin said.
Paxon responded that he either was going to run against Armey or quit. Tauzin didn’t think he was serious about retiring–until he made it official Wednesday morning.
