For the Chicago Bulls, the first 15 minutes of Tuesday’s NBA draft will feel like an elaborate, high-stakes game of Plinko.
For weeks, the Bulls have been waiting to make their pick on draft night, which will take place in Brooklyn. And for those 15 minutes, they will have to wait just a little longer as their competitors make the decision of which top-four talent they will leave for the Bulls to select with the No. 4 pick.
It’s easy to fall into a rut of assumptions in the final days before a draft. There’s simply too much time to talk between the draft lottery in May and the actual day of selection in June. Selecting from among this talented top-four group isn’t simple, but that hasn’t stopped a preferred order from emerging. The working expectation is for the draft to follow this order:
- No. 1, Washington Wizards: AJ Dybantsa
- No. 2, Utah Jazz: Darryn Peterson
- No. 3, Memphis Grizzlies: Cameron Boozer
- No. 4, Bulls: Caleb Wilson
Plenty of reasoning lies behind this amateur consensus. Dybantsa emerged even before the draft combine as the favorite for the top pick due to his versatility, pure scoring ability and high ceiling as an athlete. Peterson would fulfill steep guard needs for the Jazz. Boozer is the type of rock-solid producer the Grizzlies have desperately needed. But logical projection doesn’t always match up with the actual preferences of the teams making the picks — especially in a top four with this much talent.
Peterson complicated this dynamic by refusing to work out with any team but the Wizards, according to a report by ESPN. The former Kansas guard is clearly calling his shot as a self-perceived No. 1 pick, but that decision also included cancelling planned meetings with other top-four teams like the Jazz.
The Jazz won’t be deterred by Peterson’s withdrawal, according to a report by The Athletic. Utah already navigated a stubborn prospect last year when they drafted Ace Bailey despite active claims by his then-agent that he would refuse to play for the Jazz. Bailey went on to make a promising impression in his rookie season with the Jazz and appears to be comfortable playing out his rookie contract in Utah.
If the same scenario plays out again, the Jazz seem prepared to repeat their own decisions and deal with any uncomfortable dynamics later. But that also operates under the assumption that Peterson is a consensus No. 2 pick. What if that changes (or never was the case) on Tuesday?
The same question can be asked of Boozer, who is considered the most pro-ready and polished of the group despite being the youngest (he turns 19 on July 18) first-round prospect in the draft. While questions about Boozer’s physical gifts have limited his projections of becoming a No. 1 or No. 2 pick, his ability to read the court and playmake at a high level has kept him afloat in this group. But if the first three teams decide to emphasize athleticism over IQ, Boozer could easily fall to No. 4.
In Chicago, these questions are interesting and infuriating because the Bulls have no say in the outcome. Executive vice president of basketball operations Bryson Graham has given no indication that the Bulls will look to diverge from this top four, which means the Bulls will land the final member of this group on Tuesday. The player available at No. 4 will be entirely decided by the whims and wants of three other teams.
The Bulls are eager to start their rebuild process with Wilson, a hyper-athletic wing who fits into Graham’s vision for a lengthy young core in Chicago. But if another team gets to Wilson first, the Bulls will graciously accept the gifts of Boozer or Peterson in return — not just for their talent, but also due to their strong fits as alternate foundations for a new future in Chicago.
A different draft order could initiate a backcourt shakeup for the Bulls, who must weigh the future of current point guard Josh Giddey as they assess the long-term timeline of a rebuilding process. If Graham is interested in moving off Giddey — either this summer or after this season — Peterson would provide an appropriate transition. While he would not replicate the true point guard presence of Giddey, Peterson can operate as an initiator and a shooter.
During the draft combine, Peterson voiced an eagerness to return to on-ball duties in the NBA. He is already a decent defender and a sharpshooter who could help the Bulls finally realign themselves behind the 3-point arc. The biggest question looming over the guard is his ability to stay healthy after missing large swaths of his lone year at Kansas due to extreme cramping that he described as a reaction to large doses of creatine.
The guard said he was never fully 100% during that single season at Kansas, a tantalizing prospect given his prolific output and a concerning note on his potential durability. Without in-person visits, teams could be wary about Peterson’s physical readiness — but that’s still not reason enough for the Bulls to pass should he be available at No. 4.
A fall from Boozer could also benefit the Bulls — particularly given the length of their potential rebuild, which can’t rely on physicality alone. Boozer’s greatest flaw as a prospect is his relative lack of athleticism, in comparison to the rest of the top four and to much of the ensuing lottery. These comparisons can undercut the profile of the 6-foot-10 power forward, whose footwork, decision-making and touch should make up for any lack of size or bounce.
As a big man, Boozer would not be a replacement for a primary playmaker in Chicago. But he brings a unique court vision that allows him to create plays and open up the court from the four, a blend of talent that is rare to capture even among top-ranked NBA prospects. This is a necessary complement for the Bulls, who hope to keep adding young pieces to their arsenal, including the No. 15 pick in the draft.
The waiting game may be painful — but the reliability of the talent guaranteed to be available after the first three picks should be a comfort to Graham and the Bulls front office. Now, it’s almost time to welcome a new Bull.
