Despite international reports of a behind-the-scenes effort to persuade Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to seek exile, Arab government officials and analysts remain skeptical of the prospect.
“I don’t think he’ll even consider it,” said Muhammed Sayid Saeed, deputy director of the Egyptian Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
For the past week, international media reports have detailed signs of an effort to bring about Hussein’s exile, with Egypt, Libya and Russia leading the list of potential destinations. Official Arab responses have ranged from non-committal to dismissive.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher has denied any involvement in or knowledge of such an effort, and Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal would say only that “communication is continuing on levels, announced and unannounced.”
The Foreign Ministries of Russia and Libya issued denials Thursday that they have offered Hussein asylum. A spokesman for the Arab League said his organization is not involved in any exile negotiations, “nor would we want to be.”
However, Philippine Foreign Minister Blas Ople made headlines when he said that several Arab ambassadors to Manila had told him of an initiative to gain Hussein’s departure.
“They [Arab ambassadors] told me that some Arab governments are trying to influence Saddam Hussein to voluntarily step down, go to a third country that will host him and that will save his life as well as the lives of many others, including the people of Iraq,” Ople said.
The contention was strongly denied by Iraqi Ambassador to Moscow Abbas Khalaf, who told Russia’s Interfax news agency: “I’d like to assure you that [Hussein] will continue to defend his homeland. He is one of the leaders who will never leave his country and will fight to the last drop of blood.”
Egyptian government spokesman Nabil Osman said the exile rumors come from “shadowy and ambiguous sources” and speculated that the recent wave of press reports may be an element of “psychological warfare” from the U.S. camp.
But beyond the government denials, a fledgling Arab campaign calling for Hussein’s abdication has begun to stir.
A group of Arab intellectuals and artists, largely based in Beirut, are planning to release an open letter in regional newspapers calling for Hussein’s departure “as the only way to avoid more violence.”
Signers include Lebanese lawyer Chibli Mallat, who is best-known for pursuing war crimes charges against Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in a Belgian court; Yousri Nasrallah, a filmmaker in Egypt; and Kamel Labidi, a human-rights activist in Tunisia.
Labidi, the former director of Amnesty International’s office in Beirut, said he does not expect Hussein to leave voluntarily. But if a peaceful departure could be arranged, Labidi said, it would undercut the U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf region and give Iraq a chance for democratic development free from Western interference.
“Saddam is not the kind that would resign. But if he did, it could cut the grass under the feet of the U.S.,” he said.
One of the likely stumbling blocks in any exile scenario is the question of the Iraqi leader’s vulnerability to international war crimes prosecution.
Hussein, who has been president since 1979, is unlikely to accept any deal that does not guarantee immunity from charges for crimes that include the use of poison gas against Iran during the war in the 1980s and later against Iraqi Kurds.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said Tuesday that a voluntary exit by Hussein “would be nice for everybody.”
