For all the diplomatic theater surrounding the UN report on Iraq, the die is now pretty much cast. The United States has concluded–12 years after he first promised to disarm and 60 days after UN inspectors returned to Baghdad–that Saddam Hussein has no intention to surrender weapons of mass destruction.
That will be the thrust of the meaty section on Iraq in President Bush’s State of the Union address Tuesday, although he will not declare war, administration officials said.
None of the looming obstacles, including slippage in the president’s popularity, is dissuading the Bush administration from swiftly trying to wrap up the long-playing drama, according to U.S. officials and regional experts.
“The administration is not going to be deterred by the UN report, European crankiness, anti-war sentiment at home or regional efforts by Saddam’s neighbors to get him to comply,” said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA analyst now at the National Defense University in Washington. “It won’t be swayed, although it may allow a bit more time for the inevitable to unfold.”
“President Bush,” she said, “may not have issued a formal order yet, but he has made up his mind.”
That doesn’t mean, however, the finale has been written. The pivotal elements of timing and the scope of global engagement are still unresolved–and may well produce some fiery theatrics this week.
How the saga unfolds will be shaped largely by three events this week: the president’s public address to the nation Tuesday; the deliberations over the UN report behind closed doors at the Security Council on Wednesday; and a Washington summit between Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Friday.
Bush begins the week at a disadvantage, analysts say.
“The onus is still on the president to make his case to the public. He’s going into the State of the Union handicapped because the UN report is unlikely to be as negative as he believes it should be,” said Henri Barkey, a former State Department policy planning staffer.
The Tuesday speech will be more pivotal than Bush’s announcement launching the war against terrorism in Afghanistan in the fall of 2001, when the world rallied behind the United States in the wake of the Sept. 11 terror attacks.
It will also be more difficult than his speech five months ago to the United Nations, when the president laid out a new strategy to deal with Iraq through the world body.
“This will be a much harder sell,” Barkey said. “It will have to be convincing, and without a smoking gun, that will be very difficult. He won’t be able to get away with simple language. It will have to be the speech of his life.”
