The playoffs for most leagues start in Week 14 or 15, so any mistakes in the last week loom large. The biggest mistake is leaving points on the bench, and it’s an easy one to make because the complexion of defenses change within a season.
Based on earlier games, some owners may take for granted that any matchup against the Jaguars is great, or any matchup against the Buccaneers is terrible, and later regret that assumption. It’s that second-half syndrome again, only this time it applies to teams your players face, not offensive sleepers.
Check those opposing defenses to see if they’re on the rise or falling.
For better or worse
Some defenses have changed significantly in recent weeks.
FOR BETTER Start your players vs. these defenses
Ravens pass: Ravens defenses are supposed to get better, not worse. Forget the six sacks, Matt Hasselbeck obliterated this unit. Overall, Baltimore has allowed 16 scores through the air, 11 more than on the ground.
Panthers pass: Teams used to dread facing any part of that Panthers defense; now anyone can put up 250 passing yards on them (looking at you, Quincy Carter). And get this: The secondary has coughed up at least two aerial scores in five of the last six weeks.
FOR WORSE Don’t expect much vs. these defenses
Bears rush: Since they bollixed up a win at Seattle by letting Shaun Alexander run for a second TD, the Bears have allowed just one ground score (LaDainian Tomlinson), but have faced elite backs Marshall Faulk and Clinton Portis. Chicago’s still giving up yards.
Cardinals pass: Arizona has been bringing the heat at home lately, punishing the Rams with four INTs (one returned for a score) and seven sacks in Week 13. It’s no fluke–the Cards collected three sacks, two picks and four forced fumbles in the two home games before that.
Browns rush: The Pound has come a long way since letting Jamal Lewis and Tomlinson eclipse 200 yards. Cleveland hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since LT and relinquished just two rushing TDs (to Kansas City’s Priest Holmes) in that four-game span.
Falcons pass: Looks like Dan Reeves made the right move by shaking up the secondary. Unless you have elite players, your backups may face better matchups.
FOR BETTER Start these defenses
Raiders: Say what you will about the team’s rushing defense, Oakland’s D has ramped up its fantasy production in recent weeks: sacks, interceptions and recovered fumbles. Philip Buchanon has become as dangerous with punt returns as he is with INTs, returning one or the other in Weeks 10 and 11.
Vikings: After feasting on INTs early, the Vikings faded. But they clawed back in Week 11 with three sacks and two recovered fumbles and reverted to old form in Week 12 with four INTs–two returned for TDs.
Falcons: Their yards-allowed number has never been pretty, but they’ve stepped up in other areas: seven sacks against New Orleans, two INTs and two recovered fumbles against the Giants, and their current two-game streak with a defensive or special teams score.
Rams: They were always a decent play, but they’ve reached
Buccaneer level of late. Seven sacks and Adam Archuleta’s fumble return against Baltimore, and Travis Fisher’s 57-yard interception return against Arizona should be enough to get your attention.
FOR WORSE Don’t expect much
Chiefs: Teams respect them now, especially in the return game. Neither the defense nor Dante Hall has reached the end zone since Week 6.
BANK IT
Week 13 locks
1. Trent Green
QB, Chiefs at Chargers
2. Deuce McAllister
RB, Saints at Redskins
3. Terrell Owens
WR, 49ers at Ravens
– Quietly has scored in each of last 3 weeks.
4. Chad Johnson
WR, Bengals at Steelers
5. Anquan Boldin
WR, Cardinals at Bears
BUSTED
Week 13 stiffs
1. Drew Bledsoe
QB, Bills at Giants
2. Quincy Carter
QB, Cowboys vs. Dolphins
3. Correll Buckhalter
RB, Eagles at Panthers
4. Jimmy Smith
WR, Jaguars vs. Bucs
– See how Bucs treated Amani Toomer? Like that.
5. Rod Smith
WR, Broncos at Raiders
BUZZ
Week 13 sleepers
1. Domanick Davis
RB, Texans vs. Falcons
2. Santana Moss
WR, Jets vs. Titans
– Slippery scoring threat, even against best defenses.
3. Justin McCareins
WR, Titans at Jets
4. Isaac Bruce
WR, Rams vs. Vikings
5. Josh Brown
K, Seahawks vs. Browns
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plthompson@tribune.com.
