In the same way the expansion season of 1993–in which home runs per game jumped 24 percent–is generally accepted as the launching point for the current era of offensive explosion in baseball, perhaps in another decade or so historians and statisticians will look back at 2004 as the start of another golden age of pitching.
“Baseball is cyclical,” said St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, “and for the first time in a long time, some things in the game are beginning to favor the pitcher.”
The tenuous balance between offense and pitching has been tilting toward the former for years now, to the point where many question whether the records being set these days are legitimate. But now, the atmosphere is perfect for a shift back toward pitching.
Consider:
– A stricter phase of steroid testing begins this season, with violators subject to fines, suspensions and public shame. Already there is circumstantial evidence to suggest bodies are getting smaller, and the top sluggers are hitting fewer homers.
– An emphasis on creating a uniform strike zone has resulted in more high strikes being called. Although some pitchers have complained about the accuracy of the QuesTec automated strike-tracking system that was used in 10 stadiums last season, those stadiums produced a lower combined ERA than non-QuesTec stadiums–suggesting the computerized system, which is expected to be in more parks this year, actually helps pitchers.
– Several dominating young pitchers–including Mark Prior of the Cubs, Josh Beckett of the Florida Marlins and the trio of aces on the Oakland Athletics–have come of age at the same time, while several other certain Hall of Fame pitchers are in the twilights of their careers.
“What I’ve noticed over the last couple of years,” said veteran Baltimore Orioles first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, “is you have some serious young pitchers coming up. You look at the Oakland A’s staff: unbelievable. The Cubs’ pitching staff: unbelievable. The Astros with their young guys. The Marlins. It’s just shifting slowly.
“I know in the ’90s, there was a big boom in offense. But there’s just a lot of great, young, dominating pitchers right now, and some veteran guys still around who can pitch.”
Both runs and home runs per game began shooting skyward in 1993, the year the Colorado Rockies and the Florida Marlins joined the National League. The peak came in the period from 1998 to 2001, when the 60-homer plateau–which had been reached only once (by Roger Maris in 1961) in the previous 70 years–was surpassed six times.
Even last year, while not a single hitter reached the 50-homer plateau for the first time in a decade, the rate of homers per game in the major leagues still rose from 2.09 per game in 2002 to 2.14–suggesting the initial survey phase of steroid testing last season had little effect on the overall trend favoring offense.
Apparently, scouts, managers and front offices still dig the long ball. And perhaps the emphasis on offense has trickled down to the next generation of baseball players.
“I don’t think there’s that many kids who grow up wanting to pitch anymore,” said Jack Morris, who won 254 games in a 17-year career and now is a broadcaster for the Minnesota Twins. “You see a lot of kids who think the glory is in the offense. There’s so much more emphasis on offense. In my opinion, there’s only a handful of great pitchers in the majors anymore.”
However, if it’s true there are only a handful of great pitchers, what a handful it is. No fewer than four seemingly surefire Hall of Fame pitchers are plying their crafts these days.
Houston’s Roger Clemens, Arizona’s Randy Johnson and the Cubs’ Greg Maddux may be near the end of their careers, while Boston’s Pedro Martinez, still only 32 years old, appears to have several more seasons ahead of him. In 2000, at the height of the offensive explosion, Martinez had arguably the greatest season by a pitcher in decades, posting an ERA (1.74) that nearly three runs lower than the league average of 4.62.
Those giants are joined now by a new generation of dominant pitchers, headed by Prior, who doesn’t turn 24 until September. His teammates Carlos Zambrano and Kerry Wood are 22 and 26, respectively. Florida’s Beckett, the MVP of the 2003 World Series, is 23. Oakland’s Tim Hudson (28), Mark Mulder (26) and Barry Zito (26) are just entering their peak years. On the Astros, Roy Oswalt is 27, and Wade Miller is 26.
There are great starting staffs all over baseball this season–not just in Atlanta. And speaking of the Braves, with Maddux and Tom Glavine now gone, and John Smoltz in the bullpen, they probably would not make anyone’s list of the top 10 rotations in the game.
“It seems like pitching staffs on most clubs in both leagues are deeper with guys who have real talent, real good stuff,” said La Russa, “and with guys with talent who also do a good job of pitching–moving the ball around, changing speeds.”
Another wave of pitching may be coming. Many in the game predict the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Edwin Jackson, who is only 20, will be the next pitcher to join that class of young aces this season.
“A lot of teams realized you can’t just win with offense, and I think they started drafting and developing more pitchers,” said Baltimore’s Palmeiro.
“Teams like Oakland and Houston and Chicago, who have struggled for so long, are reaping the benefits of all these young pitchers, because they went ahead and drafted pitchers, and now they’re dominating.”
True, no one hit 50 homers last season. But Bonds hit 45 in only 130 games, and Cubs slugger Sammy Sosa hit 40 despite missing 25 games because of injuries and a suspension for corking his bat. So it’s not as if the sluggingest sluggers are going the way of the dinosaurs.
For years, every trend in baseball seemed to be working against pitchers. The mound was lowered in 1969. Nearly every new stadiums built featured reduced foul territory and shorter fences. And the strike zone shrunk, at least on the inside corner and the upper edge.
“To me, the one thing that changed the game the most is that pitchers couldn’t throw inside anymore,” Morris said. “Umpires have the authority to throw you out of the game when they even suspect you might be throwing at someone, so nobody pitches inside.”
“It seems like (the strike zone) changes year to year,” said new Orioles manager Lee Mazzilli. “Pitchers always complain that they’re changing it, but pitchers are always going to say that. Pitchers want to throw from 30 feet. I think your good hitters are going to do what they normally do.”
QuesTec was introduced last season as a way to condition umpires to call a uniform strike zone. While pitchers such as Curt Schilling and Tom Glavine have blasted the system as being unfair to pitchers who like to paint the corners, baseball officials are fond of pointing out that QuesTec parks had lower ERAs–4.38 in the AL, and 4.06 in the NL, compared with league-wide ERA of 4.86 and 4.61, respectively–and saw more strikes called than non-QuesTec parks.
Baseball will not be able to achieve its goal of having the system in every stadium by this year, but it will be expanded.
“Even though the idea was to narrow the strike zone to the plate, they did give you some room above the waist,” La Russa said. “I think that’s helped a little bit. … For a while, there was nothing favoring pitching. Ballparks were smaller, the mound was lower, the ball was lively. And who knows what (the hitters) were doing with their bats? Pitchers couldn’t catch a break, and now that’s starting to change, if only a little bit.”
