Week 1 in fantasy football is the worst of paradoxes: So much anticipation immediately followed by twice as much perspiration.
The fact that the season opener is finally upon us is a beautiful thing, a chance to finally battle test the spoils of your draft. But there’s a catch: Fantasy strategies are designed for the long term. You’re suddenly faced with the here and now. That Tyrone Wheatley pick that looked so promising against Kansas City in Week 16 is tempered by the reality that he’s opening in Pittsburgh.
So much is unknown about each team–and even hidden by some coaches–that one should expect at least a couple of surprises during opening weekend. With that preface, here are my Week 1 starters, bench warmers and sleepers.
Starters
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB,
Chargers at Texans
2. Chad Pennington, QB, Jets vs. Bengals; Jets will be fired up, and the Bengals D still has questions.
3. Marshall Faulk, Cardinals at Rams
4. Stephen Davis, RB, Panthers vs. Packers
5. Todd Heap, TE, Ravens at Browns
Bench warmers
1. Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars at Bills
2. Lee Suggs, RB, Ravens at Browns;
He’s nicked, and this wasn’t a good situation to begin with.
3. Tyrone Wheatley, RB, Raiders at Steelers
4. Eddie Kennison, WR, Chiefs at Broncos
5. Koren Robinson, WR, Seahawks at Saints
Sleepers
1. Javon Walker, WR, Packers at Panthers; Ahman Green is the focus, allowing Walker to break through.
2. Thomas Jones, RB, Bears vs. Lions
3. Warrick Dunn, RB, Falcons at 49ers
4. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts at Patriots
5. David Carr, QB, Texans vs. Chargers
MAIL BAG
Be careful what you ask for, it may be published.
Phillip,
I’m picking first in a 10-team scoring league (2 RBs, 3WRs, QB, etc). After I take Priest Holmes, I’m thinking of going after three wide receivers, then going running back by committee. My top five could be: Priest, Chad Johnson, Hines Ward, Steve Smith and Curtis Martin.
In your opinion, is that better than: Priest, Domanick Davis, Chad Johnson, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne? In my opinion the second running back who will be left is too risky at pick No. 20. I’d have the strongest balance of starting wide receivers in the league, plus Priest.
–Michael A. Pramik,
Columbus, Ohio
Michael,
I hope I don’t steer you too wrong, here. I don’t know what you’re scoring system or lineup requirements are, but here’s my best stab at it.
Actually, I prefer your second option. You’re running a big risk with your running back strength by going with Priest and Curtis. Martin stands to produce better numbers than last season, but you can’t bank on top 20 quality from him, which is what you’re shooting for with a second-tier running back. Also, Holmes has told reporters that he still feels pain in his hip on every play, but he toughs it out. This is not to warn you against taking Holmes, just a caution that you should mitigate your risk.
I wouldn’t be down on Domanick Davis, either. He’s not perfect–and his recent lack of work because of minor injuries should raise an eyebrow–but he has the four major things you look for in a fantasy back:
1) Twenty or more carries per game;
2) A 4.3 or higher rushing average;
3) Heavy involvement in the passing game (His 47 catches almost doubled WR Corey Bradford’s 24); and
4) Goal-line carries.
The other argument is that 2nd-4th round option of Chad Johnson/Hines Ward/Steve Smith may not turn out to be that much stronger than a 3rd-5th round trio of Chad Johnson/Steve Smith/Andre Johnson (or Reggie Wayne, or Javon Walker, or Justin McCareins …).
Notice, I dropped Smith into the equation as your fourth overall pick, where I think he still may be attainable.
You would still have a great group of receivers, but your running back corps would be much stronger.
———-
E-mail Phillip Thompson at plthompson@tribune.com all season long for fantasy advice.
