According to NFL ratings, the third-ranked offense of the Indianapolis Colts plays against the 13th-ranked defense of the Bears on Sunday.
It’s much better than that.
According to Troy Aikman and common sense, the Colts are the No. 1 offense by a good margin, and the Bears are the No. 2 defense, second only to the Baltimore Ravens.
This is more than an opinion of the former Dallas quarterback. It is his Aikman Efficiency Rating as compiled by STATS, Inc. He believes it makes far more sense than the NFL method of ranking offenses and defenses strictly by yards.
In yards, the Kansas City Chiefs are the best offense and the Pittsburgh Steelers are the best defense. In Aikman’s ratings, the Chiefs and Steelers both rank third.
Aikman’s formula combines points, turnovers, red-zone efficiency, yards per play and first-down achievement. It then measures the numbers against league norms over the last 10 years and attaches a score. A league norm in all categories would result in a 75.
Returns and safeties are subtracted from points for a more accurate gauge of offense and defense.
Aikman’s system is not unlike the complex formula for passer efficiency rating. He claims it would take a truly exceptional offense or defense to score more than 90 during an entire season. Last year his No. 1-ranked Kansas City offense scored 93.95, while New England had the top defense at 86.87.
The Colts’ offense currently is flying high at 98.6 while the Bears’ defense is at 85.5, right behind the Ravens at 85.8.
Aikman’s system makes him a popular man in Philadelphia, where the Eagles’ defense jumps from 23rd in league statistics to seventh. He’s not so popular in Denver, where the Broncos’ offense drops from fifth in league stats to 12th.
The Colts’ defense is ranked 31st by the league, but coach Tony Dungy can justify his claim that it is improving by pointing to his 22nd ranking by Aikman.
League rankings and Aikman rankings differ for every team on both offense and defense except for one category: The Bears are 32nd, dead last, on offense no matter whether the league or Aikman slices the numbers.
Thanksgiving fare
It sounds as if Bill Parcells is sticking with quarterback Vinny Testaverde over Drew Henson in Dallas regardless.
“The other player gives us a better chance to win,” Parcells said. “We are trying to win here. We are not running a tryout camp. It’s as simple as that.”
Henson has not played football since 2000 at Michigan. He was elevated to second string behind Testaverde, and ahead of former Eastern Illinois player Tony Romo, the week of the Detroit game on Oct. 31. But he has yet to take a snap. The Cowboys play the Ravens on Sunday and the Bears on Thanksgiving, the league’s two best defenses, according to Aikman.
“I just don’t think the circumstances right this moment–and that’s what we’re dealing with–are conducive to him being successful,” Parcells said.
“That’s the best way I can put it. I know all the people will say, `Well, what have you got to lose?’ Well, what you’ve got to lose is the player. You’ve got the player to lose. You put someone in a wrong situation at the wrong time, it’s just like taking a young fighter who has had five or six bouts and put him in with Arturo Gatti right now, and it might not go so good. And that’s the essence of what I’m trying to say.”
Vote of confidence
Washington coach Joe Gibbs, like Parcells, is reluctant but decided he had to replace ineffective Mark Brunell with third-year player Patrick Ramsey. But Gibbs sounded more like a talk show caller than an encouraging coach.
“To be truthful, if I was Patrick, I wouldn’t want to be in my first start going out against Philly,” Gibbs admitted. “They have dominated the division and they have tremendous coaching.”
Does a coach have to be quite that truthful?
The turf toe
If Bears running back Thomas Jones is suffering from the same kind of “turf toe” injury that knocked Tennessee’s Chris Brown from last week’s game, here is how Nick DiNubile, a team physician for basketball’s Philadelphia 76ers, describes it:
“It is a disabling injury for an athlete. It’s the joint that you use to pull your big toe up and down, it kind of works like a hinge.
“When you run or walk, about half of your body weight goes through that side of your foot, the other half is distributed among the other four. So it’s a very high load area especially in athletics when you are running and stressing five to seven times your body weight.
“I think it’s often trivialized by the press, especially in an athlete where they might think this person’s dogging it. . . . It’s a serious injury and it’s very hard to compete with it. I’d say it’s harder to play on a turf toe than it is with a broken rib or a shoulder that recently has been strained or subluxed.”
Fair Farrior
Pittsburgh inside linebacker James Farrior leads the Steelers with 67 tackles, four forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries, and he has three sacks and two interceptions.
Is anybody playing better?
“I will tell you what, I don’t know of any,” Steelers coach Bill Cowher said. “When you talk about a guy with his production; as a guy who can make impact tackles, who can run from sideline to sideline, who can go back in coverage, who sets the defense, and who doesn’t come off the field …
“I know there are some good linebackers out there. Ray Lewis is a good linebacker, Zach Thomas is a good linebacker, but I’ll tell you what, James Farrior is pretty good too.”
Good luck . . . soon
Atlanta coach Jim Mora plots against Eli Manning in his first start for the New York Giants. Mora has known the Manning family since he was an assistant coach with his dad in New Orleans. Mora didn’t like the way the Mannings took heat after Eli expressed his desire not to play in San Diego.
“I didn’t necessarily like the way things unfolded for him on draft day,” Mora said. “He was portrayed differently then I know him to be. He’s a very classy kid, it’s a very classy family and I didn’t think they were done justice on that day. So I’d like to see him get some redemption, but he needs to start doing that next week.”
Protect the children
Eli Manning will be starting behind a Giants line that has allowed an NFL-high 40 sacks. Miami and the Bears are tied for second at 33, not good news for inexperienced Dolphins starter A.J. Feeley and Bears rookie Craig Krenzel.
Contrast that with Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who has been sacked only six times all season, and Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre, sacked only five times.
A veteran quarterback knows how to help keep the sacks at a minimum. A veteran line helps too. In Green Bay, the Packers’ offensive line has been charged with allowing only one of Favre’s five sacks. Last year, including playoffs, the offensive line was charged with allowing only five of the team’s 20 sacks. That’s only six sacks in 27 games blamed on the offensive line.
“These are things we don’t want to talk about,” guard Marco Rivera said. “Once you put it on paper everybody reads up on it. So let’s just keep it quiet and go about our business.”
Sour kicker
Carolina punter Todd Sauerbrun, the ex-Bear, kicked four extra points and a field goal last week after John Kasay got hurt. But Sauerbrun said he wouldn’t do it again unless the Panthers refund $40,000 in fines for being a few pounds over his specified weight of 217.
“I’d love to do it, but they’d have to give me some of that fine money back,” Sauerbrun said. “I just can’t stop eating. I just love food.”
Sauerbrun, who ranks only sixth in gross punting average this season, thinks he might be the greatest ever but admits he needs a few more Pro Bowls to prove it.
“I can’t even compare the kickers and punters today to years back because of those new kicking balls,” Sauerbrun said. “I mean, I have to wear a glove just to catch those . . . things now. Back then, they were kicking those rugby balls.”
Dent on list again
Bears all-time sacks leader Richard Dent made the list of 25 semifinalists for the Hall of Fame this year. Former Bears offensive linemen Jim Covert and Jay Hilgenberg didn’t advance. The list will be pared to 13 plus seniors candidates Fritz Pollard and Benny Friedman for voting on Feb. 5.
Dent was joined by defensive linemen Fred Dean, Chris Doleman, L.C. Greenwood, Charles Haley, Claude Humphrey and pass-rushing linebacker Derrick Thomas–a formidable group. Surprisingly, former New England pass-rushing linebacker Andre Tippett didn’t make it.
Other semifinalists: Harry Carson, Don Coryell, Randy Gradishar, Russ Grimm, Ray Guy, Lester Hayes, Michael Irvin, Joe Jacoby, Bob Kuechenberg, Dan Marino, Art Modell, Art Monk, Ken Stabler, Roger Wehrli, Ralph Wilson Jr., George Young, Steve Young and Gary Zimmerman.
