Fox Broadcasting chief Gail Berman threw a wet blanket over her network’s most successful television show on the day before the season premiere of “American Idol,” telling TV critics on Monday that she expects it to lose viewers this season.
“We can expect to see some declines,” Berman said at the winter gathering of the Television Critics Association. “I think that’s only natural for a fourth-year show.”
Hit reality shows tend to decline in ratings as viewers become familiar with the personalities, and interest in the concept–whether it’s picking America’s next pop star or Donald Trump’s next employee–dies down. But “American Idol” bucked that trend last year, picking up viewers in its third season to become the most-watched series of 2004.
“We certainly don’t expect that this time,” Berman said.
Nonetheless, Fox hopes “American Idol” can shore up its ratings, which have been dismal so far this season. The network ranks fourth with an average of 8.5 million prime-time viewers, down 9 percent from last season, according to Nielsen Media Research. Among the 18-to-49-year-old viewers that Fox uses to set advertising rates, the network is down 10 percent.
“It’s a very big engine and an important part of our schedule, so we certainly hope that it continues to be strong for us,” Berman said.
Fox was similarly situated one year ago. At this point last season, it ranked third among 18-to-49-year-olds, but the January launch of “American Idol” boosted its average by 15 percent and into second place behind NBC.
Berman acknowledged that Fox’s ratings slump is due in part to her strategy of year-round programming, an attempt to minimize the disruption caused by the Major League Baseball playoffs in October by doing away with the tradition of premiering new shows in September.
“It’s a gradual process,” she said. “You have to start somewhere. We knew we were going to take our lumps in doing that, but the logic is still there.”
Last week, PBS and several cable networks rolled out new programs for the assembled critics. Among the highlights:
– MTV will add a third show documenting the lives of the extended Simpson clan, giving Nick Lachey his own reality show documenting the making of his new album and remaking of his flagging career.
“The Nick Lachey Show,” set to premiere in April, will coexist with new seasons of “Newlyweds,” which follows Lachey and his wife, Jessica Simpson, and “The Ashlee Simpson Show,” which follows Jessica’s sister. At a news conference, Lachey pointed out that at family gatherings, the Simpsons could be followed by three separate MTV camera crews.
– PBS is reaching out to corporate partners. The public broadcasting network has struck a deal with HBO to air three HBO films on public stations after their pay-cable premieres: “Dirty War,” a fictional account of a radiological bomb attack in London; “Sometimes in April,” a film recounting of the Rwandan genocide; and “Yesterday,” about AIDS in South Africa.
HBO is providing the films for free and will finance the production of roundtable discussions following each film.
