We’re all under the assumption Greg Oden, predicted to be the next great center, will be the first pick in the NBA draft Thursday.
But aren’t we all told what can happen when we assume?
“A few weeks ago, I would have said it was 100 percent the Trail Blazers took Oden,” said one of the league’s elite personnel executives, who has grown enamored of Kevin Durant.
“I don’t know if I’ve ever scouted anyone with this much talent,” he said of the Texas freshman, who was the NCAA’s player of the year. “The kid is unbelievable. He doesn’t have the explosiveness of a Michael [Jordan] or LeBron [James], but he can score, dribble, shoot, post up, jump hook, drive, pass, make every correction out of the double team, shoot threes, block shots and still get 10 rebounds.
“You put LeBron after his freshman year and maybe he gets 25 and 10, but not the blocks, not everything this kid does. He’s an all-timer. He’s the best player I’ve ever scouted. To me, it’s 50-50 now who goes first.”
So maybe Portland decides it has Zach Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge and Durant could complement them and you can build just as well around a great perimeter player. After all, it was Portland which passed on Jordan in 1984, and it turned out great talent is enough to create a dynasty, no matter the size.
One thing everyone does know is Oden and Durant are going to Portland and Seattle in some order, and the beginning of their rivalry and the raves about their potential and impact could stamp the 2007 draft as one of the best ever.
It might not be as deep with great talent as first advertised, but Al Horford, Mike Conley Jr., Joakim Noah, Brandan Wright, Corey Brewer, Jeff Green and Yi Jianlian appear to have a chance to be solid NBA players.
The draft itself, though, has been getting second billing to the growing trade rumors that have Kevin Garnett being dealt by the Timberwolves to the Suns or Lakers in various multi-team scenarios also involving the Pacers and Celtics.
But this draft one day will be looked back upon as the big story thanks to Oden and Durant, who are not only great players but impressive, interesting young men. Oden appears the more open and playful, with a good sense of humor and a welcoming way about him. Durant seems more reserved, though similarly genuine.
“I’m not a bad guy. I’ve never been in any trouble. I’ve never beaten up anybody,” Durant told reporters during his visits to Portland and Seattle, where his workouts were considered more impressive than Oden’s.
“I’m just a nice guy who is willing to work hard. And I will do anything to win.”
Durant is likened to a variety of players, from Garnett to Tracy McGrady to Dirk Nowitzki to Julius Erving.
“I don’t think I’m going to be a savior wherever I go,” he said. “I’m just going to go in with an open mind and always work hard and get better every day. I was always taught to be humble, because at any day this could be taken away from me. I never take it for granted. I was never cocky, because I started from nothing and that always humbles me knowing I started from nothing.”
He has one tattoo, of his mother’s name over his heart, and says he won’t get any more.
“My mom has meant so much to me, and I always beat on my chest when I do something good in basketball,” he said. “My mom is my heart, so I decided to get it on the top of my heart. I like how tattoos look, but I don’t think they are for me.”
When they are together — they played against each other only in the McDonald’s All-America Game, with Durant the dominant player and his team winning — Oden usually is more animated and likes to joke and banter with reporters. Oden jokingly likens himself to Will Smith’s character in “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” sitcom and Urkel from “Family Matters.”
Oden says he lets his beard get unkempt at times — he only trusts a lady barber in Indianapolis because of the “little Shane Battier things” on the top of his head.
Oden never received lower than a B in any high school or college class. NBA executives who have watched him describe him as the ultimate winner because he cares so little for statistics and attention and will do anything necessary to win. But he’s also reflective and sober, recently telling the Oregonian newspaper: “I always doubt myself for some reason. I want to be sure on everything.”
And he’s a big fan of Durant’s.
“Look at his stats and my stats and there is no comparison,” Oden said. “I didn’t really produce as well as he did. People are talking about me being the No. 1 pick, but if you go by the numbers, it should be him.
“But I know this is not about numbers, this is about who can help somebody win. So you can go by his numbers, or you can go by [Ohio State] made it to the [NCAA] championship game. And I’d like to think that I helped in that … just a little.”
Oden did, and his teams have a history of winning. But he was hardly a dominant offensive player in college, not putting up the kind of numbers some other great centers produced before they came into the NBA. And there still are questions about that injured right wrist.
Still, potentially great centers rarely come along.
Potentially great perimeter players are more common, with three in the 2003 draft alone.
Durant, though, is considered something else again.
“This kid, at 6-10, with a reach as long as Oden’s, is a better talent than Michael [Jordan],” the personnel director said. “But he doesn’t have the energy level or athleticism. And Oden’s presence on the floor makes you a contender. It’s going to be an interesting decision.”
———
sasmith@tribune.com
