When Toby Emmerich, president of production at New Line Cinema, watches rough cuts of the fantasy epic “The Golden Compass,” he has to use his imagination.
A stuffed green pillow stands in for a golden monkey, a lush landscape will be added digitally to the studio’s key holiday-season release.
And when it comes to how the effects-laden production will fare at the box office, he can only hope it comes close to 2001’s “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,” which grossed $315 million domestically and launched a landmark trilogy.
“If we can do a healthy percentage of what ‘Lord of the Rings’ did, this company will be ecstatic,” Emmerich said.
Known quantities fueled a record summer, as name-brand sequels including “Spider-Man 3” and “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix” pushed overall domestic ticket sales to more than $4 billion for the first time.
The rest of 2007, however, features only a few major sequels, including “National Treasure: Book of Secrets” from producer Jerry Bruckheimer’s hit factory and “Saw IV,” the latest in a Halloween tradition for horror fans. Studios are banking instead on unproven commodities, including big-budget fantasy films and potential franchise starters from a mix of genres.
If enough of the fall and holiday season gambles pay off, this year’s box-office receipts in the U.S. and Canada could reach a record $10 billion, building on the industry’s 2006 rebound.
If “The Golden Compass” — based on the first book in Philip Pullman’s “His Dark Materials” trilogy about a young girl’s otherworldly adventures — becomes a hit, New Line will green-light back-to-back sequels.
Studio executives believe their fantasy films can overcome a glut of titles in the genre partly because they target different audiences. With its young heroine, for example, “The Golden Compass” should play well to females.
The studio, which has stagnated since “The Lord of the Rings” series ended nearly four years ago, needs a new blockbuster more than most.
Filmmaker Chris Weitz and his special-effects team are finishing the Dec. 7 release, which stars newcomer Dakota Blue Richards along with Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig. Exhibitors who have seen a 12-minute reel of the $180-million production “think it’s over the moon,” said David Tuckerman, New Line’s distribution chief.
“After the success of ‘Lord of the Rings’ and ‘Harry Potter,’ everyone in the movie business started poring over fantasy in a way that hadn’t been done for decades,” said Hutch Parker, vice chairman of 20th Century Fox. “Maybe we all read the same tea leaves.”
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Franchise potential?
Several films coming this fall and holiday season could launch new franchises if they are big enough hits. Among the possibilities:
The Seeker: The Dark is Rising
Release date: Oct. 5
Genre: Fantasy
Fred Claus
Release date: Nov. 9
Genre: Comedy
Stars: Vince Vaughn, Paul Giamatti, Kevin Spacey
Hitman
Release date: Nov. 21
Genre: Action
Stars: Timothy Olyphant
Thomas Kinkade’s The Christmas Cottage
Release date: Nov. 30
Genre: Drama
Stars: Peter O’Toole, Marcia Gay Harden, Jared Padalecki
The Golden Compass
Release date: Dec. 7
Genre: Fantasy
Stars: Dakota Blue Richards (above), Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig
I Am Legend
Release date: Dec. 14
Genre: Science-fiction/horror
Stars: Will Smith
