1. Payrolls to grow after August dip
The economy may be headed for a pratfall, but you can’t prove it by the job market. A slight downturn in August, when the economy lost 4,000 jobs, has hardly dented employer demand for workers. Another look comes Friday, and Chicago economist William Hummer expects it to show payrolls growing by 100,000 positions, with joblessness holding steady at 4.6 percent. “The August slippage was an aberration, and it is too soon to expect much job loss from the housing bust or the struggling mortgage industry,” said Hummer, of Wayne Hummer Investments.
2. Retail’s winter woes
Major discount and department store retailers roll out September sales figures on Thursday. While back-to-school volumes were healthy, there is gloom about consumer reluctance to load up on fall and winter fashions.
3. No break for dollar
There seems to be no respite for the dollar, which pessimists say has fallen into a bottomless pit. Last week, the greenback tumbled every day to record lows, as the cost of a euro surpassed $1.42. Analysts said the U.S. currency’s decline is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady.
4. Auto boom or bust
The auto industry zoomed into the fast lane with last week’s historic agreement between General Motors Corp. and the United Auto Workers, placing the uncontrollable costs of health care squarely in the union’s hands. Now reality is setting in: Expect Tuesday’s reports for September car and light-truck sales to show activity lower by 3 percent or 4 percent from a year earlier.
5. Sizing up the quarter
With the third quarter now history, investors are awaiting corporate profit reports. Forecasts say results may be up by as little as 3 percent, although upside surprises likely will boost that to 7 percent. Unfortunately, that’s a far cry from the double-digit advances of the last five years. Things may get better by year-end and earnings in 2008 will rise by upward of 11 percent.
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wsluis@tribune.com
