Ohio State and Boston College could make this easy. Win out, and book your trips to New Orleans for the BCS title game.
Wait. It’s not that easy. An undefeated Arizona State team easily could trump Boston College. And there’s always the chance that a one-loss LSU or one-loss Oregon could make the Lambeau Leap into the No. 2 spot.
As we enter the final month of college football’s regular season, we see a world of possibilities. Nine teams remain in the running for the chance to proclaim on Jan. 7: “We’re No. 1!”
A look at the contenders, according to their BCS rankings:
1. Ohio State (9-0)
Knowledge is power: Buckeyes have won 19 consecutive Big Ten games and boast the nation’s premier total defense (214.6 yards per game) and scoring “D” (8.9 points).
The bright side: Dominated a Penn State team that rarely loses at Beaver Stadium. Nearly every victory has been a blowout.
The dark side: Non-conference slate (Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, Kent State) built confidence but didn’t earn the Buckeyes any respect.
The final frontier: Two decent tests at the Shoe (Wisconsin, Illinois) and then this year’s Big Ten Game of the Century in Ann Arbor on Nov. 17.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 51 percent. Just win, baby.
2. Boston College (8-0)
Knowledge is power: Eagles have a Heisman Trophy candidate-worthy quarterback in Matt Ryan, the nation’s second-best run defense and a plus-11 turnover margin.
The bright side: Last-minute victory at Virginia Tech was the talk of the college football world. Also beat Georgia Tech by two touchdowns.
The dark side: Just two victories over ranked teams. Average margin of victory is 15.3.
The final frontier: Hosts Florida State, then two tricky road games (Maryland, Clemson). Hosts Miami and then likely faces Virginia Tech-Virginia winner in ACC title game.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 40 percent. Will be very tough to deny Eagles if they win out.
3. LSU (7-1)
Knowledge is power: Defense ranks in top 5 of every major category. Could be the nation’s fastest team.
The bright side: Already have beaten four ranked teams.
The dark side: Lost at Kentucky, although the Wildcats needed three overtimes.
The final frontier: Big challenge Saturday at Alabama, then they can ease into SEC title game by beating Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss and Arkansas.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 35 percent. SEC title game won’t be a breeze (most likely opponent Georgia) and Tigers might need to jump Boston College.
4. Arizona State (8-0)
Knowledge is power: Averaging 36.9 points per game — and defense has allowed more than 20 only once.
The bright side: Scored final 21 points in 31-20 victory over Cal. Nice 33-14 victory over Colorado. High computer rating (tied for second ).
The dark side: Only one victory over a ranked team — Cal — and Bears entered on a two-game losing streak.
The final frontier: Brutal finish: at Oregon, at UCLA, vs. USC, vs. Arizona. Coach Dennis Erickson had easier stretches in the NFL.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 10 percent. Five straight tough games equals at least one loss, right?
5. Oregon (7-1)
Knowledge is power: Top 5 in rushing offense (280.4 yards per game), total offense (524.4) and scoring offense (43.8 points).
The bright side: Hammered Michigan 39-7 and beat USC by a touchdown. Spread-option offense, led by quarterback Dennis Dixon and running back Jonathan Stewart, is a nightmare for opposing coordinators.
The dark side: Gave up three fourth-quarter touchdowns in loss to Cal.
The final frontier: Face three mediocre Pac-10 opponents (Arizona, UCLA, Oregon State) after Arizona State.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 25 percent. If BC loses and LSU and Oregon win out, whom do the voters choose?
6. Oklahoma (7-1)
Knowledge is power: Freshman Sam Bradford ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency. Sooners’ scoring and total defense 11th.
The bright side: Earned big-time buzz after blowing out first four opponents. Solid victory (41-31) over Missouri.
The dark side: Lost to Colorado and looked sluggish in beating Texas and a terrible Iowa State team. Low computer rating (ninth).
The final frontier: Should get challenges from Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Then will face Kansas or Missouri in Big 12 title game.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 15 percent. Big 12 lacks cred of SEC and Pac-10.
7. West Virginia (7-1)
Knowledge is power: Rushing attack producing just below 300 yards per game. Defense allowing just 14.9 points per.
The bright side: Only loss, to South Florida, might have been a fluke. Mountaineers turned it over six times and lost QB Pat White to an injury.
The dark side: Still, it was a loss. Also, Mountaineers played weak non-conference schedule.
The final frontier: Challenging road ahead features Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn and Pitt.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 18 percent. Should finish 11-1. Voters might want to see this prolific offense in a title game.
8. Kansas (8-0)
Knowledge is power: Average score has been 43-10. Averaging national-best 29.9 yards on kick returns.
The bright side: Undefeated. And the Jayhawks did beat a solid Kansas State team.
The dark side: Non-conference schedule (Central Michigan, Southeastern Louisiana, Toledo, Florida International) was a joke. No win over teams currently ranked.
The final frontier: At least two tough games left: at Oklahoma State, Missouri, possible Big 12 title game.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 5 percent. Would be nice for team to get burned for scheduling its way to a 4-0 start.
9. Missouri (7-1)
Knowledge is power: Quarterback Chase Daniel leads one of the nation’s best passing attacks. Defense , ranks just 73rd, allowing 400 yards per game.
The bright side: Good victories over Illinois and Texas Tech.
The dark side: No victories over teams currently ranked. Lost 41-31 to Oklahoma.
The final frontier: Four tough opponents remain: Colorado, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Kansas.
Chance to dance in New Orleans: 1 percent. Needs to win out, beat Sooners in Big 12 title game and hope for upsets.
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tgreenstein@tribune.com
