Last year, with shoo-ins Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. on the ballot, the Baseball Hall of Fame drama surrounded how much support Mark McGwire would get. The answer was: not nearly enough. He was named on 23.5 percent of ballots, far short of the 75 percent required for induction. He isn’t expected to do much better this time around. And with no Gwynns or Ripkens on the ballot, the big question is who, if anyone, will get in? Nine Tribune writers cast Hall of Fame ballots this year. Based on the 75 percent standard, a player would have to be named on seven to gain enshrinement. If the Tribune voters reflect national sentiment, two players will be elected: Andre Dawson and Rich Gossage. But perhaps a disclaimer is in order: Our guys gave Dawson and Gossage the nod last year too.
The Hall of Fame ballot
Brady Anderson, Harold Baines, Rod Beck, Bert Blyleven, Dave Concepcion, Andre Dawson, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, Travis Fryman, Rich Gossage, Tommy John, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Don Mattingly, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Robb Nen, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Jim Rice, Jose Rijo, Lee Smith, Todd Stottlemyre, Alan Trammell.
Phil Rogers
ROGERS’ PICKS:
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Jack Morris
Jim Rice
Alan Trammell
Bert Blyleven has a distinctive way to sign autographs. He writes his name and then beside it notes, “3,701 strikeouts.”
A cynic would point out he does this because he never achieved any of the game’s great honors. He finished as high as third in Cy Young voting only twice. That is probably what keeps him from receiving more consideration for the Hall of Fame, but I would suggest he needs a new approach.
Forget the strikeouts, emphasize the shutouts.
Blyleven piled up 60 shutouts among his 287 victories. He’s ninth all-time in that category, and every other pitcher in the top 25 is in the Hall of Fame.
How big a feat is reaching 60 shutouts? Only four active pitchers have thrown even 60 complete games, and if Roger Clemens (46) retires there won’t be an active pitcher with even 40.
With no strong first-ballot candidates in this year’s Hall of Fame voting, I expect Goose Gossage to continue the recent upward trend in voting and be elected, hopefully alongside Jim Rice. I’ve voted for Gossage every year he has been on the ballot and added Rice a year ago.
But it’s Blyleven, whom I also vote for every year, that I would wish the greatest jump in this year’s balloting. He was 149 votes short a year ago — a deficit that suggests he may never get the support he needs. That’s a shame. He deserves induction.
In my opinion, so, too, do Andre Dawson, Alan Trammell and Jack Morris.
– – –
Phil Rogers is the Tribune’s national baseball reporter.
Mark Gonzales
GONZALES’ PICKS:
Rich Gossage
Jim Rice
Someday, Tim Raines may be voted into the Hall of Fame.
But not this year, at least not on this ballot.
No eligible player has consumed more time for evaluation since I began voting after the 2001 season. His scrutiny reflects what Darin Erstad told me during an interview last March about Scott Podsednik and becoming an effective leadoff batter.
“It’s not as easy as people think,” Erstad said.
Agreed.
It’s also why I’m grateful I’ll have more chances to vote for Raines in the future. But after three days of crunching numbers and weighing other considerations, I wasn’t ready to vote for Raines — yet.
Initially I was swayed toward his four consecutive stolen base titles and six seasons of at least 70 steals. He also had an impressive .385 career on-base percentage along with a .294 lifetime batting average.
This isn’t about whether Raines would have been a shoo-in if he had collected 3,000 hits. If he had dominated over a longer period, he would have received my vote. He still could draw my vote in coming years, especially considering the dearth of productive pure leadoff hitters in this era.
As long as Goose Gossage and Jim Rice are on the ballot, I’ll continue to vote for them. Gossage earned 125 of his 310 saves by pitching two innings or more.
Rice’s credentials go well beyond his impressive numbers. He struck fear into opposing pitchers well before players discovered Vitamin S. And the sight of him hitting a batting practice home run out of the Oakland Coliseum on two bounces before a game in 1978 will rank as one of the most impressive feats I’ve witnessed.
– – –
Mark Gonzales covers baseball for the Tribune.
Dave van Dyck
VAN DYCK’S PICKS:
Harold Baines
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Tommy John
Lee Smith
With a rather unexciting freshman class on baseball’s Hall of Fame ballot, this appears (finally) to be the year for Goose Gossage, but it’s also an important test year on steroids and the DH for Hall voters.
Will steroid-soiled Mark McGwire receive at least 5 percent of the vote (he got 23.5 percent last year) and remain on the ballot? Let’s hope so, even though he did not receive our vote, because delay is the best tactic while trying to sort out facts of an entire era.
And will Harold Baines, who did receive our vote, remain on the ballot and make a case for future DHs? Baines had only 5.3 percent of voters on his side last year. While Baines spent much of his career sitting and waiting for a chance to bat, he still ranks 32nd all-time in total bases and 26th in RBIs.
With apologies to Jim Rice, Dave Concepcion, Jack Morris, Bert Blyleven, Alan Trammell and Tim Raines, here is one man’s opinion:
Baines: It’s important for him to stay on the ballot as voters grapple with the DH question.
Andre Dawson: The consummate pro, a rare six-tool player counting clubhouse charisma. His 1987 MVP season with the Cubs was one of the most remarkable in any city by any player.
Goose Gossage: His entrance is long overdue. The most dominant (and most feared) pitcher of his time; no one closed games like the Goose.
Tommy John: He won 288 games, despite spending parts of his career (pre- and post-surgery) as a reliever. He was the guinea pig for elbow-ligament replacement surgery, the procedure that has saved the careers of many pitchers and bears his name.
Lee Smith: Gossage deserves the call first, but Smitty — and his imposing presence — belongs in Cooperstown just because of his sheer numbers (478 saves).
– – –
Dave van Dyck covers baseball for the Tribune.
Fred Mitchell
MITCHELL’S PICKS:
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Tommy John
Jack Morris
Lee Smith
Unlike my namesake’s 20-month, multimillion-dollar investigation that uncovered very little new information regarding the abuse of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball, the Fred Mitchell report is ongoing and does not provide complete amnesty for those accused of using steroids.
Such continued skepticism regarding Mark McGwire, an otherwise obvious choice for enshrinement, compels me to omit his name in good conscience.
Among my choices this year, Goose Gossage seems to be the most likely to make it after finishing strong last year. But Lee Smith had the major-league record for saves for 14 years with 478 during his 18-year career. His statistics compare favorably with those of Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter, as well as Gossage.
The overall statistical merits of the understated Andre Dawson seem to shine even brighter in light of the Steroid Era revelations. Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris and Tommy John earn my votes with their stats, longevity and dependability.
– – –
Fred Mitchell is a Tribune staff reporter.
Philip Hersh
HERSH’S PICKS:
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Don Mattingly
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
A year ago at this time, in discussing my hopes that steroidal sham Mark McGwire would appear on fewer than 5 percent of ballots and thus be eliminated from consideration forever, I wrote, “I still do not know what to do with Roger Clemens when he becomes eligible.”
Now I do.
I won’t ever vote for Clemens or McGwire. (The same goes for Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro.)
As for this year, after helping Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken into the Hall last January, I’m adding Andre Dawson to my list. My colleague Mike Downey made a convincing argument in print last year that if you choose Jim Rice, you cannot deny Dawson. It changed my mind.
Otherwise, I keep lobbying for more relief pitchers, pick first baseman Don Mattingly because few have been as good a fielder (nine Gold Gloves) with as high a career average (.307) and think shortstop Alan Trammell belongs because the six-time All-Star and one-time MVP could field (four Gold Gloves) and hit for average (seven times above .300) with some power (185 home runs).
By the way, McGwire is still on the ballot, because 23.5 percent of voters chose him.
I want to know what drugs they were on.
– – –
Philip Hersh covered baseball for the Baltimore Sun, Chicago Daily News and Chicago Sun-Times.
Paul Sullivan
SULLIVAN’S PICKS:
Harold Baines
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Tim Raines
Lee Smith
Andre Dawson heads up my Hall of Fame ballot this year, and we can only hope that the inflated numbers of the steroids era help his impressive stats look that much better.
Dawson hit 438 home runs with 1,591 RBIs despite playing much of his career on bad knees, and he stole 314 bases to boot. If that’s not enough, he also won eight Gold Glove awards. Dawson received only 57 percent of the votes last year, which suggests he won’t be able to lift his numbers enough to gain the necessary 75 percent for induction. It’s a shame the voters don’t recognize his all-around ability, and I’m fearing he will go down with Ron Santo among the all-time greats who don’t get in.
I also voted for Goose Gossage, who finally may get in on his ninth year on the ballot, along with Lee Smith, Harold Baines and Tim Raines.
Raines and Baines are long shots, of course, but both are personal favorites from my days covering them on the White Sox, and I think both were among the best of their era in their respective categories — Baines as DH and Raines as a leadoff man and base-stealer.
I neglected to vote for Rod Beck and Shawon Dunston, two other personal favorites whom I covered with the Cubs, because obviously their career numbers don’t add up. But if there was a Mensch Hall of Fame, both would be first-ballot inductees.
– – –
Paul Sullivan covers baseball for the Tribune.
Teddy Greenstein
GREENSTEIN’S PICKS:
Bert Blyleven
Lee Smith
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Don Mattingly
I’m new at this, a first-time voter after hitting the 10-year mark in the Baseball Writers Association of America. But I’ve contemplated my voting strategy for years. Would I favor longevity — or flashes of brilliance? Would I downgrade designated hitters and gush over Gold Glove winners? And if the player was kind with the media, an ambassador for his sport, would that sway me?
After checking five boxes on my first ballot, I still have no answers. If anything, I’ve learned that it’s foolish to have absolutes.
Bert Blyleven gets my nod because of sustained excellence. Four men in baseball history have fanned more batters, only eight have fired more shutouts. He won 287 games, completed a comical 242 and went 3-0 in the postseason.
I used similar logic with Lee Smith, who dented the record book by posting 20-plus saves in 13 consecutive years. Plus he looked the part, with a hulking figure and nasty glare. I wouldn’t dig in against him in a slow-pitch softball game.
Andre Dawson’s detractors point to a crummy .323 on-base percentage, but I see an eight-time All-Star who cranked 20-plus homers 13 times. Lesser men from another era would have used HGH to treat his sore knees; Dawson used ice.
Perhaps only the White Sox failed to realize the brilliance of Rich “Goose” Gossage. After the Sox used him as a starter in 1976, Gossage dominated for nine years. Today’s closers earn a save for spitting on a match. Gossage put out fires.
My one indulgence on the ballot is Don Mattingly, a beacon of class and excellence (nine Gold Gloves, six consecutive All-Star teams) who thrived while George Steinbrenner poisoned the Yankees.
Hey, if you’re not going to vote for your favorite all-time player the first time you get your hands on a ballot, what’s the point? I’m not a robot.
– – –
Teddy Greenstein is a Tribune staff reporter.
Mike Downey
DOWNEY’S PICKS:
Andre Dawson
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
A single no-brainer: Andre Dawson with his 2,774 hits and 438 home runs. (Joe DiMaggio had 2,214 and 361.)
A benefit-of-the-doubt vote: Mark McGwire, even with his huge body, his puny 1,626 hits and his big, big problem. I’m not quite ready to write him off yet. Close, but not quite.
A show-of-support vote: Alan Trammell, a super shortstop, a six-time All-Star, a World Series MVP, a class act. Tram, too, had more hits (2,365) than DiMaggio did.
A stubborn streak in me: Sorry, I still left Goose Gossage’s ballot a big goose egg. If he misses out by one vote, it’s mine.
That was it for me this time. Too many good candidates, not enough great ones … you know, kind of like in the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucuses.
– – –
Mike Downey writes In the Wake of the News.
Dan McGrath
McGRATH’S PICKS:
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Jim Rice
Alan Trammell
The pen, as usual, lingered at Bert Blyleven — 60 shutouts dressing up those 287 victories and 3,701 strikeouts — but it didn’t make the mark.
Same for Jack Morris. Tough, smart, cranky … the best big-game pitcher of his era. Maybe it’s the absence of a Cy Young Award, in both cases. Shouldn’t there be at least one year when a true Hall of Famer is his league’s very best?
The pen didn’t stop at fearsome Lee Smith, either … can’t explain why Goose Gossage’s 310-save body of work is more impressive than Lee Arthur’s 478. To these eyes, it just is.
Maybe one of these years.
I bring that up because I had a change of heart this year and voted for Alan Trammell after ignoring him in his previous six years on the ballot. Shortstop has become more of an offensive position, and Trammell was better with a bat in his hands than two shortstops I considered first-ballot locks: Luis Aparicio and Ozzie Smith. He also won four Gold Gloves, which suggests he handled himself nearly as well in the field as those two acrobats.
In part because of a truly unremarkable class of first-year eligibles, the other two choices are holdovers: Jim Rice and Andre Dawson.
Rice is running out of chances — it’s his 14th year on the writers’ ballot. He played only 16 seasons, but he was the most productive (and scariest) right-handed hitter of his era, and I always vote for him.
As for Dawson, here’s hoping a re-examination of steroid-inflated numbers will prompt voters to take a more in-depth look at Dawson and recognize his elegant all-around talent.
– – –
Dan McGrath is the Tribune’s associate managing editor for sports.
