In a presidential race marked by unexpected twists, turns and slips, Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama enter the last 30 days of the campaign with Obama clinging to a small but significant lead and McCain anxious to change the subject and shake up the dynamic.
The final phase of the general election comes during perhaps the worst economic period in the nation’s history since the Great Depression. While the economic system is in turmoil, the military is under strain too, fighting two wars simultaneously. A sweeping majority of the electorate believes the country is on the wrong track, and public sentiment toward the outgoing administration appears to verge on contempt.
But the candidates know that anything could happen, especially with two debates still to come, the requisite advertising wars and a ground game pitting newly registered Obama supporters against older, more dependable voters for McCain.
Already, the landscape has shifted, most noticeably in the Midwest.
McCain has retreated from Michigan, a blue state he had hoped to push into the GOP column. He is redoubling his effort in Wisconsin, where Obama’s once commanding lead has dwindled. And he’s being forced to compete in Indiana — a state that has not voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 — where polls show Obama in close contention. Meanwhile, Obama now has to pump funds into Minnesota, a state he once thought secure with its history of narrowly choosing Democrats.
Still, recent weeks have favored Obama.
“I don’t think it’s over, but boy, other than the vice presidential debate, you would be hard pressed to point to anything good that’s happened to Republicans in the last three weeks,” said Charlie Cook, editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
For now, the McCain campaign plans to get as far away as possible from the Wall Street rescue debacle on Capitol Hill and get back to questioning Obama’s experience, judgment and qualifications. Economic issues tend to favor Democrats, and McCain’s decision to abandon campaigning and rush back to Washington received mixed reviews.
“We’re looking to turn the page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama’s aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for the Americans,” said Greg Strimple, a senior McCain adviser.
The Obama campaign will continue to hammer home the message that if voters want another four years of President George W. Bush’s policies, they should back McCain, said campaign manager David Plouffe. But if they want “fundamental change, putting the middle class first,” Plouffe said, they should vote for Obama.
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who speaks with Obama regularly, said the days of arguing over the meaning of trivial phrases like “lipstick on a pig” are over.
“We feel this campaign has entered a new phase, a very serious phase, where voters are not going to be swayed by superficial arguments,” said Durbin. “Of course we expect more negative advertising coming at us. Both of us feel it doesn’t have the same impact it did a few weeks ago.”
Although polling numbers have been known to bubble up and slide back quickly in this race, Obama has made large gains among white women, a key component of the electorate, as well as non-college-educated white voters.
“Obama’s doing well among all the demographic groups he needs to win,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, describing the Illinois senator’s lead as solid. “It doesn’t mean the election’s over, but McCain has a steep hill.”
Most strategists agree that the shift has been due in large part to the catastrophic economic crisis on Wall Street and the all-consuming focus on how to save the economy. But Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, says that doesn’t mean the race is over.
“Every time in the past Obama has been able to open up a small but significant lead, the McCain campaign has figured out a way to close the gap,” said Ayres. “So if we’re looking at the history of this race, it would suggest a continuing close race rather than a fundamental shift toward Obama.”
Some questions remain about whether polls reflect voters’ true intentions on Election Day. But even top McCain officials acknowledge that the financial crisis hurt McCain, causing a 4- to 6-percentage point drop in the polls in a year when Republicans are badly out of favor. “We never felt like in a year with the environment being as bad as it is that this would be easy,” said one senior adviser.
The dynamic has conservatives worried.
“I don’t think it’s necessarily over, but it’s close to being over,” said Paul Weyrich, president of the Free Congress Foundation, adding that McCain is not aggressively exploiting Obama’s vulnerabilities by talking about his relationships with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and former 1960s radical activist Bill Ayers.
But Scott Reed, who ran Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign, said there’s no reason for Republicans to panic.
“If you look back at the last 30 days and what we’ve been through, look at how many times things have changed,” he said. “That’s why I still have hope.”
Meanwhile, Obama’s aides said he will continue to run as if he were behind. But they are quick to point out that they are on the offense, campaigning competitively in states such as Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio where Bush won four years ago.
“We assume all these battleground states will be competitive till the very end,” said Plouffe, cautiously describing himself as “pleased” with the progress.
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Key states to watch
Missouri: Long considered a bellwether state, Missouri is evenly divided between Obama and McCain, according to the most recent polls. At stake are 11 electoral votes.
Indiana: The last time this state voted for a Democrat for president was in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson steamrolled Barry Goldwater. Otherwise, Indiana is as Republican as they come. This year, however, polls show that its 11 electoral votes are up for grabs.
Minnesota: With 10 electoral votes, Minnesota is a steadfast blue state, last voting for a Republican in 1972, when Richard Nixon swept the nation. Since then, Democrats have won, but their margins are getting smaller. Polls say the race is a toss-up.
Iowa: The Hawkeye State could hardly have been closer in 2004, splitting 49.9 percent to 49.2 percent for President Bush over John Kerry. This year, recent polls show the race to be either dead even or tipping solidly for Obama to pick up the 7 electoral votes.
Wisconsin: Democrats have won this Great Lakes state every election since 1988, but in 2004 Wisconsin was the closest in the nation with Kerry winning by just 0.4 percent of the vote. It’s similarly competitive this year for the state’s 10 electoral votes.
Also critical: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.
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jzuckman@tribune.com
This time, red means go to Obama camp
Dive into The Swamp, the Tribune’s political blog, for a look at Barack Obama’s strategy of campaigning in traditionally GOP states at chicagotribune.com/theswamp
