Dear Tom,
Hurricane forecasting is supposedly better than before, but Hurricane Katrina in 2005 makes me wonder if that is really true. What are your thoughts?
–James Van Horn
Dear James,
Hurricane forecasts are more accurate. Dr. Hugh Willoughby, a distinguished research professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at Florida International University, says, “The chances of dying in a hurricane have been reduced by a factor of 100 during the course of the 20th Century.”
Hurricane forecast accuracy is improving at an average rate of 1 to 2 percent a year in recent years. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was very well forecast, even three days in advance. The horrific death toll in Louisiana and Mississippi speaks to a lack of adequate hurricane preparedness, not to forecast accuracy.
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Write to: ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Pl., Chicago, IL 60618 or: asktomwhy@wgntv.com
Weather Report is prepared by the WGN-TV Weather Center, where Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN News at 11:30 a.m., 5:30 p.m. and 9 p.m.
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