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Chicago Tribune
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Pro football reporter Sam Farmer breaks down the games.

Last week: 8-5 Against the spread: 5-8

Season: 86-43 Against the spread: 58-71

Bengals (6-2) at Steelers (6-2)

Line: Steelers by 7

Over/under: 41

NOON

When they met earlier, the Bengals didn’t have to worry so much about Rashard Mendenhall. Now the Steelers back is averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

TV: WBBM-Ch. 2

Steelers 30, Bengals 20

Jaguars (4-4) at Jets (4-4)

Line: Jets by 7

Over/under: 40

NOON

The Jaguars are a bad road team and are awfully one-dimensional on offense. If the Jets can contain Maurice Jones-Drew, they should be able to protect their turf.

Jets 31, Jaguars 24

Falcons (5-3) at Panthers (3-5)

Line: Falcons by 1 1/2

Over/under: 44

NOON

After a slow start, the Falcons’ Michael Turner has been exceptional lately. In the last two games, he has 323 yards rushing and three touchdowns. He should set the pace.

Falcons 21, Panthers 16

Bills (3-5) at Titans (2-6)

Line: Titans by 6 1/2

Over/under: 41

NOON

Vince Young has been surprisingly good at game management. The Titans are vulnerable in the secondary, but it remains to be seen if the Bills can exploit that.

Titans 24, Bills 12

Broncos (6-2) at Redskins (2-6)

Line: Broncos by 3 1/2

Over/under: 36

NOON

The Broncos’ defensive line should be able to wreak havoc in the Redskins’ backfield, where Jason Campbell has been sacked 25 times (six last week against the Falcons).

Broncos 21, Redskins 10

Bucs (1-7) at Dolphins (3-5)

Line: Dolphins by 10

Over/under: 44

NOON

The Dolphins have had a tough time getting their wildcat offense on track. The Bucs should help them do that, giving up 163.4 yards rushing a game.

Dolphins 27, Bucs 14

Saints (8-0) at Rams (1-7)

Line: Saints by 13 1/2

Over/under: 50

NOON

Although the Saints trailed in the first quarter in their last three games, they have far too much firepower for the Rams. As long as they don’t fall asleep at the wheel …

Saints 35, Rams 14

Lions (1-7) at Vikings (7-1)

Line: Vikings by 16 1/2

Over/under: 47

NOON

Matthew Stafford had five interceptions last week and 12 in six starts. Nothing says pressure like Jared Allen coming off the edge. The Vikings won’t let this one slip away.

TV: WFLD-Ch. 32

Vikings 35, Lions 13

Chiefs (1-7) at Raiders (2-6)

Line: Raiders by 2

Over/under: 37

3:05 PM

The Raiders won at Kansas City for their first victory. The Chiefs, the only team with zero rushing TDs, might score one; the Raiders have allowed an NFL-high 13.

Raiders 14, Chiefs 9

Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (4-4)

Line: Cowboys by 3

Over/under: 48

3:15 PM

The Cowboys have won four in a row. The Packers have dropped two straight and are having problems protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys should take advantage.’

TV: WFLD-Ch. 32

Cowboys 30, Packers 14

Eagles (5-3) at Chargers (5-3)

Line: Chargers by 1 1/2

Over/under: 47

3:15 PM

The Chargers are gaining confidence and facing a team with serious problems at cornerback. And when you’re facing Philip Rivers, cornerback problems are a very bad thing.

Chargers 30, Eagles 14

Seahawks (3-5) at Cardinals (5-3)

Line: Cardinals by 8

Over/under: 47

3:15 PM

Kurt Warner and the Cardinals have come to life, winning four of five, and have beaten the Seahawks handily in their last three meetings. The Seahawks are just too banged up.

Cardinals 30, Seahawks 16

Patriots (6-2) at Colts (8-0)

Line: Colts by 3

Over/under: 50

7:20 PM

If the Colts have a vulnerability, it’s their rookie corners. With a healthy Wes Welker in the slot and Randy Moss to stretch the field, Tom Brady should take advantage.

TV: WMAQ-Ch. 5

Patriots 17, Colts 14

MONDAY’S GAME

Ravens (4-4) at Browns (1-7)

Line: Ravens by 10 1/2

Over/under: 40

7:30 PM

This is a trap game for the Ravens, who by all rights should dominate. The Browns have a hard enough time moving the chains against lesser defenses.

TV: ESPN

Ravens 28, Browns 6