* No favourite emerges to lead world’s 1.2 billion Catholics
* Secret conclave predicted to last “a few days”
* Ballot rich in ritual, steeped in history
By Crispian Balmer
VATICAN CITY, March 12 (Reuters) – Roman Catholic cardinals
gather under the gaze of Michelangelo’s “Last Judgment” on
Tuesday to elect a new pope to tackle the daunting problems
facing the 1.2-billion-member Church.
The secret conclave, steeped in ritual and prayer, could
carry on for several days, with no clear favourite in sight to
take over the reins from Pope Benedict, who abdicated last month
saying he was not strong enough to confront the Church’s woes.
In a process dating back to medieval times, 115 “Princes of
the Church” from 48 countries will shut themselves in the
Vatican’s frescoed Sistine Chapel on Tuesday afternoon after a
public Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica in the morning.
They will emerge from their seclusion only when they have
chosen the 266th pontiff in the 2,000-year-history of the
Church, which is beset by sex abuse scandals, bureaucratic
infighting, financial difficulties and the rise of secularism.
“We are ready to enter the conclave and it will be longer
than the last one,” South African Cardinal Wilfrid Fox Napier
told reporters on Monday, referring to the 2005 election of
Benedict, that was wrapped up in 24 hours after four ballots.
“It will last a few days. Maybe four or five,” he predicted.
The average length of the last nine conclaves was just over
three days and none went on for more than five days.
Vatican-insiders say Italy’s Angelo Scola and Brazil’s Odilo
Scherer have emerged as the men to beat. The former would bring
the papacy back to Italy for the first time in 35 years, while
the latter would be the first non-European pope in 1,300 years.
However, a host of other candidates from numerous nations
also have been mentioned, including U.S. cardinals Timothy Dolan
and Sean O’Malley, Canada’s Marc Ouellet and Argentina’s
Leonardo Sandri.
CONSERVATISM AHEAD
All the red-hatted prelates closed in the Sistine Chapel
were appointed by either Benedict or his revered predecessor
John Paul, and the next pontiff will almost certainly pursue
their fierce defence of traditional moral teachings.
But Benedict and John Paul were criticised for failing to
reform the Vatican bureaucracy, battered by allegations of
intrigue and incompetence, and some churchmen believe the next
pope must be a manager or put a good management team in place.
Vatican insiders say Scola, who has managed two big Italian
dioceses, might be best placed to understand the Byzantine
politics of the Vatican administration – of which he is not a
part – and therefore be able to introduce swift reform.
The Curia faction is said by the same insiders to back
Scherer who worked in the Vatican’s Congregation for Bishops for
seven years before later leading Brazil’s Sao Paolo diocese –
the largest diocese in the biggest Catholic country.
With only 24 percent of Catholics living in Europe, pressure
is growing within the Church to see a pontiff from elsewhere in
the world who would bring a different perspective.
Latin American cardinals might worry more about poverty and
the rise of evangelical churches than questions of materialism
and sexual abuse that predominate in the West, while the growth
of Islam is a major concern for the church in Africa and Asia.
The cardinals are expected to hold their first vote late on
Tuesday afternoon – almost certain to be inconclusive – before
retiring to the Vatican hotel for the night.
They hold four ballots a day thereafter until one man has
won a two-thirds majority – or 77 votes. Black smoke from a
makeshift chimney on the roof of the Sistine Chapel will show
no-one was elected while white smoke and the pealing of St.
Peter’s bells will announce the arrival of a new pontiff.
As in medieval times, the cardinals will be banned from
communicating with the outside world. The Vatican has also taken
high-tech measures to ensure secrecy in the 21st century,
including jamming devices to prevent eavesdropping.
(Editing by Michael Roddy)
