State lawmakers had barely peeled out of Springfield following a session where key issues stalled when a slew of politicians who want to be Illinois governor saw the green flag waving to launch the 2014 race.
A pair of Republicans, Treasurer Dan Rutherford and wealthy venture capitalist Bruce Rauner, formally kicked off their campaigns last week. State Sens. Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady, two repeat contenders, are expected to join the field soon as the GOP tries to take back the governor’s mansion and end 12 years in the political wilderness.
Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is preparing for what looks to be a one-on-one primary battle as he seeks his second full term. The question, however, is which matchup it’ll be. Former White House chief of staff William Daley could make it official this week after years of hinting at a statewide run. Whether Daley stays in the race may depend on Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who is mulling a bid for a promotion after three terms as the state’s chief lawyer.
The crop of would-be governors will face a pair of major problems: how to resolve Illinois’ worst-in-the-nation government worker pension debt and whether to allow a temporary income-tax increase to expire as scheduled in 2015.
“It’s a tough job right now,” said Christopher Mooney, a political studies professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “One would have thought things would have been cleaned up a bit more, but it’s obviously getting worse.”
Democratic dance
Quinn was elected in 2010 with the promise of raising taxes to help fund schools. The 67 percent hike in the income tax rate squeaked through during a lame-duck session before he’d taken the oath to start his first full term, but the considerable billions of dollars still haven’t eased the state’s financial burden as soaring pension costs and a tall pile of unpaid bills have led to cuts in education, public services and other key programs.
In an attempt to ease the pain, Quinn has put pension reform at the top of his agenda for the past two years. But he’s got little to show for it as both the politics and finances of the situation grow desperate.
Quinn has tried to keep the pressure up since lawmakers went home for summer break on May 31, but his efforts have only put his leadership abilities under closer scrutiny. Last week, the governor convened a meeting with Democratic legislative leaders, only to have House Speaker Michael Madigan — the father of the attorney general who is weighing a primary challenge — fail to show. They’re now all supposed to meet Monday to try to find a pension compromise before the June 19 special session Quinn called.
The lack of a pension resolution, Quinn’s narrow victory in 2010 and continued low approval ratings have created the perception he’s vulnerable. Daley is expected to announce a run against Quinn this week, citing in part the “debacle” over pension reform and Quinn’s inability to forge a compromise.
The former commerce secretary under President Bill Clinton has been considering a primary challenge for months, but has largely been in a holding pattern as Attorney General Madigan ponders entering the race.
Daley doesn’t want to split the anti-Quinn vote and pave the way to another term for the embattled governor, but he also doesn’t want to spend the summer frozen. Getting in the race sooner rather than later would give Daley time to raise money and introduce himself to people south of Interstate 80 who, if they know him at all, know him as the son of one former Chicago mayor and the brother of another.
The Daley-Madigan family antagonism dates back more than three decades. In the 1980 Cook County state’s attorney’s race, Michael Madigan backed 14th Ward Ald. Edward Burke over Daley’s brother Richard, who won anyway.
As for the attorney general, some in the Capitol privately speculate the pension inaction is chaos by design in order to make Quinn look bad ahead of a possible challenge by the younger Madigan, but few things in Springfield are so clear-cut.
For the attorney general, running for the state’s highest office while her father is still speaker raises questions about a conflict of interest both during the campaign and should she become governor. There are three positions of power at the Capitol — governor, House speaker and Senate president — and having two of them controlled by the same family is bound to be a major campaign issue.
Aides to Lisa Madigan say she is focused on her work and has yet to make a decision, but is “taking the steps necessary to ensure that she has the financial and political resources for another campaign, whatever that may be.”
Indeed, Madigan’s campaign fund dwarfs Quinn’s. She raised more than $831,000 from January to March, and had about $4.4 million left to start April, according to records from the State Board of Elections.
Quinn, meanwhile, raised more than $565,000 during the same time period and started the spring with more than $1.5 million in his campaign fund, according to state records. Daley has yet to form a campaign committee, but his deep Rolodex from decades in the public and private arenas means he should be able to raise money.
For his part, Quinn has the bully pulpit of the office and the ability to cut ribbons across Illinois all summer.
“There are always going to be sideline critics. They may carp, they may complain, but the bottom line is I’m in the arena getting the job done for everyday people,” Quinn said Friday when asked about the political fallout from the pension issue. “I’m telling our legislators, ‘Stop meandering. Forge an agreement that I can sign into law, so we can solve this problem.'”
Republican rumble
On the Republican side, four major candidates are seeking to position themselves as the best choice to take on a Democrat in a state where the GOP has long been out of power.
Rutherford talks up his position as the only statewide officeholder in the GOP field, saying he can translate his successful race for treasurer into a bid for the state’s top office. He paints himself as a candidate willing to embrace diversity, and was the only Republican in the 2010 legislature to vote in favor of civil unions, though he is opposed to gay marriage.
While the treasurer’s office is often viewed as a launching pad for higher office, Rutherford has run into some bumps during his first term. He came under fire for a botched promotion of the Bright Start college savings program and for mailers that were sent out with recipients’ Social Security numbers printed on the outside of the envelopes.
Rutherford’s candidacy represents a geographical challenge for Brady, a state senator whose base of support also is central Illinois. In 2010, Brady won the close Republican governor primary in large part because he was the only Downstate candidate among several suburban candidates who carved up the vote. This time, Brady could experience the flip side of what happens when support from a particular area gets split up.
Brady, who went on to lose to Quinn in the general election in another close contest, will again try to appeal to conservative voters on social issues. Brady is expected to launch his campaign for governor by the end of the month.
Also anticipated to run again is Sen. Dillard of Hinsdale, who narrowly lost the primary to Brady last time. Dillard hopes to capitalize on being the only candidate this time from Republican-rich DuPage County. He’s counting on a moderate pedigree and buyer’s remorse.
“I think I am the most electable,” Dillard said, touting his experience as chief of staff to former Gov. Jim Edgar. “But for 193 votes (in the 2010 primary), I would be governor today. The pension situation would be taken care of and we would not have had a 67 percent income tax increase.”
The wild card in the Republican field is wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner, a venture capitalist and private equity specialist who is expected to pour tens of millions of his own money into the primary race.
Rauner argues career politicians of both parties have run Illinois into the ground because they are more concerned about being re-elected than solving problems. A first-time candidate, Rauner has staked out a moderate position on abortion rights and refused to say whether he personally supports or opposes gay marriage.
Although Rauner is seeking to portray himself as an outsider, his personal and business interests have brought him into contact with the state’s political power structure, including Mayor Rahm Emanuel, for whom he has acted as an unofficial adviser.
Rauner’s money will allow him to build up his name ID quickly as he introduces himself to voters. Whether he’s able to avoid the same fate that has befallen several other wealthy Illinois politicians in both parties who spent lavishly but lost will play out as one of the more interesting stories of a campaign that’s just getting underway.
Tribune reporter Bill Ruthhart contributed.
Twitter @moniquegarcia
