By Linda Sieg
TOKYO, July 6 (Reuters) – Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling
bloc is headed for a big victory in this month’s upper house
election, media surveys show, a win that would end a
parliamentary deadlock and set the stage for Japan’s first
stable government since 2006.
The anticipated victory would give the Japanese leader a
mandate for his “Abenomics” recipe that aims to end prolonged
stagnation with a mix of hyper-easy monetary policy, fiscal
spending and structural reforms including deregulation.
However, a big win could also be a mixed blessing if members
of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), buoyed by victory and
with no national election required until 2016, oppose painful
reforms many say are needed to revive growth.
Newspaper surveys taken on July 4-5 and published on
Saturday showed the LDP and its coalition partner, the New
Komeito party, were on track to win more than 70 of the 121
seats up for grabs in the July 21 poll for the 242-seat chamber.
With the coalition’s 59 uncontested seats, that would hand
them a hefty majority and end a “twisted parliament” in which
the opposition controls the upper house, hampering policy
implementation.
“Hubris is a big problem,” said Chuo University political
science professor Steven Reed. “The real question is whether the
LDP has really become more unified or whether it was just a way
of getting back in power.”
Japan has had seven prime ministers since the LDP’s
charismatic Junichiro Koizumi ended a rare five-year term in
2006. Abe succeeded Koizumi, only to quit abruptly after leading
the LDP to a massive upper house loss in 2007.
The hawkish Abe, 58, returned to power in December for a
rare second term after the LDP-led bloc handsomely won a
December election for parliament’s powerful lower house. The
coalition, however, has since lacked a majority in the upper
chamber, which can block legislation.
The LDP could even win the 72 seats it needs to secure an
upper house majority on its own, the Asahi newspaper forecast
showed, the first time the long-dominant conservative party has
done so since losing there in 1989. The LDP would still be
unlikely to dump New Komeito because it relies on the lay
Buddhist group that backs the smaller party to help get votes.
