By Roberta Rampton and Caren Bohan
WASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) – It seems that everyone in
Washington is talking about it except President Barack Obama:
When Congress votes on the administration’s request to use
military force in Syria, the future of his presidency could well
be on the line.
A defeat, a distinct possibility, would hobble Obama in
affairs both foreign and domestic, particularly if fellow
Democrats collaborate in it.
It will hurt him at a critical juncture, as he confronts not
only Syria, but the nuclear activities of Iran and North Korea,
another round of battles with Republicans over fiscal issues, an
immigration bill, and a possibly difficult nomination fight over
a new chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Using Obama’s presidency as an argument as Congress ponders
a resolution authorizing military action is off-limits for the
administration – it would make the debate about Obama and cost
the president votes from some Republicans he is counting on.
“My credibility is not on the line,” Obama said at a news
conference in Stockholm on Wednesday, five days after he
announced he would seek congressional authorization for a strike
on Syria over an Aug. 21 chemical weapons attack in that
country.
“The international community’s credibility is on the line.
And America and Congress’ credibility is on the line.”
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
But if ever there was an “elephant” in a room, the Obama
legacy is it.
A ‘no’ vote would be a “catastrophe” for Obama, said David
Rothkopf, a former Clinton administration official who is now
president of Garten Rothkopf, an international advisory firm.
“It would ratify the perception of him as a lame duck at one
of the earliest points in recent presidential memory,” Rothkopf
said. “He would appear to be weakened and unlikely to get much
done during the remainder of his term.”
“I think a ‘no’ vote would be a huge slap at the president,”
said George Edwards, a presidential scholar at Texas A&M;
University. “It would seem to tie his hands.”
It would hurt Obama even more if many Democrats – members of
his own party – vote against him, which at the moment seems
likely.
House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner in particular
knows the consequences of being a leader with a diminished
following. During the fiscal cliff confrontation in December,
his fellow Republicans in the House defeated a proposal he
thought might help resolve the fight over tax increases and
heavy automatic spending cuts.
Boehner has since taken a back seat in confrontations with
Obama in part because he can no longer speak for his caucus in
the House.
Obama will confront a difficult challenge in October, when
he faces Republican demands to make spending cuts in exchange
for an increase in the nation’s borrowing limit, the debt
ceiling.
He faces another potential fight if he nominates Larry
Summers, said to be his current favorite to replace Ben Bernanke
at the Fed. Bernanke’s term ends Jan. 31 and the White House has
said an announcement on his successor is expected in the autumn.
At stake domestically in the Syria vote is the president’s
“political capital,” the influence that presidents gain with
every victory and lose with every defeat, particularly if they
have been personally engaged in the issue.
IMPACT ON NEXT CRISIS
Political capital is unquantifiable, and the impact on
domestic issues a matter of speculation. The significance of
defeat for Obama in the international sphere, beyond Syria, is
more clear.
Indeed, for Obama and his national security team, the vote
on Syria appears to represent a desire to get a clearer fix on
whether they can count on Congress if the Iranian nuclear
standoff comes to a head or North Korea escalates its
provocations to new levels, a U.S. official said.
A congressional “no” vote this time around would weigh
heavily against seeking congressional approval should Obama feel
the need to use force again.
Without reference to Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry
has painted a dire picture in hearings on the resolution. A ‘no’
vote from lawmakers, he and other officials have argued, would
embolden Iran and North Korea and make it more likely that a
terrorist group might use illicit weapons.
No one doubts that Republicans would use a defeat to their
advantage. A central Republican critique of Obama is that he is
a weak leader. A ‘no’ vote on Syria delivered in part by
Democratic lawmakers would strengthen their argument, just as
the administration is preparing for the fiscal battles of the
autumn.
While the administration has sought to divorce the issue
from Obama personally, the stakes for his presidency are on the
minds of many Democrats in Congress as they consider their
votes.
“Sure, you weigh that,” California Democratic Representative
George Miller, who has not decided which way to vote, told
Reuters in an interview. “You obviously weigh that, but that
cannot be the determining factor . … Obviously, I want the
president to succeed.”
But “when I run into my constituents,” Miller added, “I’ve
been asking them their opinion. They are very, very deeply
concerned about any involvement by us there.”
(Additional reporting by Rachelle Younglai, Warren Strobel,
Susan Cornwell, Susan Heavey and Matt Spetalnick; Editing by
Fred Barbash and Peter Cooney)
