* Dynamic Renzi clear favourite to become Democratic Party
leader
* Tricky relationship looms with centre-left PM Letta
* Source close to Renzi says ‘government will last’
By Steve Scherer
ROME, Dec 8 (Reuters) – Italians cast votes on Sunday in a
primary election that is likely to install charismatic Florence
Mayor Matteo Renzi as leader of the centre-left Democratic Party
(PD), the largest bloc in the fragile ruling coalition.
The 38-year-old Renzi is the overwhelming favourite in a
three-way race that will inevitably have an impact on Prime
Minister Enrico Letta, a PD member who did not run, and the
future of a party with a history of deep divisions.
Renzi has bluntly criticised the party’s traditional
left-wing leaders and the government’s failure to make major
economic reforms amid the longest recession in six decades,
leaving some wondering if he will destabilise Letta’s
administration.
Voting – open to all Italians aged 16 and over, and not just
party members – began in the morning, and by 5 p.m. (1600 GMT)
1.95 million people had cast ballots, the PD said. The primary
ends at 8 p.m. and the first partial results are expected to
trickle out an hour later.
If he emerges triumphant, Renzi will not join the
government, but is likely to lead the PD into the next election
as its candidate for prime minister.
The Florence mayor is a dynamic speaker, sometimes compared
to Britain’s Tony Blair, who has no connections to the old-style
left and who has urged “scrapping” the former PD leadership and
policies, making him popular even among centre-right voters,
polls have shown.
Heading into the primary, Renzi’s support was 20 points
above his nearest rival, the 52-year-old Gianni Cuperlo, a
former communist, and even further ahead of the 38-year-old
Web-savvy Pippo Civati, Tecne polling institute said last week.
With the centre-right in disarray after former prime
minister Silvio Berlusconi’s tax-fraud conviction and a
subsequent party split, Renzi has the opportunity to recast the
PD to attract some disillusioned right-wing voters.
Lower taxes – a warhorse for Berlusconi for two decades –
are a central part of his programme, as are promises to change
the electoral law and overhaul labour rules.
“GOVERNMENT WILL LAST”
Two weeks ago, Renzi said that if he won the primary he
would call on the government to step up its reform efforts or
else declare it “finished”. But few, even among his loyalists in
parliament, say it would be to Renzi’s advantage to seek
elections now, as he needs time to unify the party behind him.
For his part, Letta has insisted that the primary will make
his government stronger, and Renzi and the premier will meet as
early as Monday, government and party sources told Reuters.
“The government will last until at least 2015, if not
longer,” one source close to Renzi told Reuters.
But after the primary Renzi may have to tone down his
outspoken rhetoric if he is to conquer the support of the PD, a
party formed by fusing former communists and the left wing of
the centrist Christian Democrats.
Apart from many still-pending economic reforms, the
government faces an unpredictable new challenge following last
week’s move by the Constitutional Court to reject parts of the
current voting law.
The ruling leaves Italy with a proportional voting structure
that would virtually guarantee short-lived coalitions and worsen
the stalemate that has afflicted the system in recent years. It
will take careful negotiations to build support, also outside
the PD, for new election rules.
Though Renzi appears to be heading for a decisive primary
victory with the general public, inside the party he will still
need to build support of those suspicious of his unabashed
ambition, his centrist past and his forceful and unorthodox –
for the left – media presence.
Earlier this year, Renzi went on a TV talent show popular
with teenagers and broadcast by Berlusconi’s network. Dressed in
a black leather jacket, at one point he gave a thumbs-up that
earned him the nickname “Fonzie”, a reference to the laid-back
hero of the U.S. sitcom “Happy Days”.
Renzi embraced it, posing in a leather jacket for a
magazine and explaining: “I want everyone to hear my message”.
(Additional reporting by Massimiliano Di Giorgio; Editing by
Mark Trevelyan)
