As Hurricane Sally takes small steps toward the Alabama-Mississippi coastline, state leaders prepare for enormous and historical flood levels, endangering coastal communities as the storm is forecast to make landfall early Wednesday. The Category 1 hurricane’s snail-like pace exacerbates the threat of flooding throughout the coast predicted to experience a 6-foot storm surge, up to 30 inches of rain to some parts and winds of 85 mph.
Meanwhile, the tropics continue to remain active with Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storm Teddy and Tropical Storm Vicky in the Atlantic as well as three more areas with a chance to form into the next tropical depression or tropical storm.
Hurricane Sally, though, is the most dangerous of systems, located as of 11 p.m. Tuesday about 65 miles south-southeast of Mobile, Ala. and 60 miles southwest of Pensacola with sustained winds of 85 mph and stronger gusts, crawling north at 2 mph.
“Historic life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi,” the NHC said. “Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast.”
Hurricane-force winds extend out 40 miles with tropical-storm-force winds extending out 125 miles. The NHC predicts Sally to make landfall near the Florida-Alabama state line, to the relief of Louisiana residents.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from east of the Okaloosa-Walton county line in Florida to Indian Pass, the NHC said, and from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Grand Isle, Louisiana.
A storm surge warning is in effect from the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Walton-Bay county line in Florida, from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River and in Mobile Bay.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for Escambia, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Liberty, Okaloosa, Walton, Washington and Santa Rosa counties.
President Donald Trump issued emergency declarations for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Monday, and on Twitter urged residents to listen to state and local leaders.
Sally had on Monday grown to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, but died back down to Category 1 status and is projected to potentially gain “some” strength before landfall.
Rain bands have reached land as coastal roads along Pascagoula, Miss. have already started flooding from rising sea water, according to the Pascagoula Police Department.
Sally’s slow, 2-mph pace is causing concern among hurricane specialists who noted that the slower the storm moves the greater amount of rainfall areas could be exposed to and therefore a larger threat of flash flooding.
The hurricane is forecast to bring a tremendous threat of heavy rain, from 10-20 inches with some isolated areas of 30 inches from the central Gulf Coast to the western Florida Panhandle.
Sally’s threat of flooding won’t just affect the Gulf Coast area, but it is also forecast stretch through the Southeast with 4-8 inches and some areas up to 12 inches across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas, said NHC director Ken Graham in a Facebook video.
“Because of that slow movement, we’re going to see torrential rainfall, dangerous rainfall. Large forecast for the rainfall totals here,” said Graham who reinforced the forecast of some areas receiving up to 30 inches of rain. “That’s a history making amount of rain. Dangerous, very life threatening situation with that rainfall. You have to pay attention and have a plan and not be out there traveling. If water covers the road turn around. Don’t drown. It’s a dangerous situation to be on the roadways here.”
Graham also noted that the flash flooding could affect resident hundreds of miles from the coast.
Some inland areas near rivers and streams could experience 4 to 6 feet of flood water, said NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart. Anyone living in such an area should evacuate, he advised.
“[They] need to understand there is going to be extremely heavy rainfall, like what they may have never seen before,” Stewart said. “You don’t have to have a very powerful hurricane like a Category 3 hurricane to get significant storm surge.”
NHC experts found in a 2019 study, that 90 percent of hurricane related deaths are water related, and the major player responsible for those deaths was the storm surge, which accounted for 49 percent of hurricane related deaths. However, the interesting take away was the most powerful storm surges were seen not on the coast, but instead 100 miles inland, such as 2018’s Hurricane Florence, which flooded rivers from North Carolina’s coast through state with storm surge waters.
Some tornadoes also could occur Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s hurricane hunting WP-3D Orion aircraft, NOAA43 also known as “Miss Piggy,” went on its last mission surveying Sally Tuesday afternoon. So far, the team has spent 29.5 flight hours observing the storm, partly because of its slow pace, said NOAA Aircraft Operations flight director Christopher Kerns.
“When storms slow down, it ramps up our stress,” Kerns said. “The longer it sits over [warm water], the longer it will intensify, and of course by proxy, the more missions we fly to observe it.”
The flight, a team of about eight or nine, will be flying to St. Croix after their mission observing Sally. Starting Wednesday, they’ll pick up the reigns to start surveying Tropical Storm Teddy.
After Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast for the storm, and it should become post-tropical by Friday, the NHC said.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Paulette is beginning to weaken after it passed over Bermuda on Monday. The storm is 415 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland and no longer a threat to land.
At 11 p.m. Tuesday, Hurricane Paulette was moving at a fast 28 mph with maximum sustained winds maintaining 100 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds reach outward up to 275 miles.
Paulette brought heavy rains to Bermuda while also producing swells, generating life-threatening rip current and surf conditions as far away as the southeastern U.S., the NHC said.
The surf conditions have been responsible for at least one death, according to a report by the Associated Press.
Lavallette, N.J. Mayor Walter LaCicero told the Asbury Park Press that the 60-year-old man and his 24-year-old son were swimming near the Vance Avenue beach on Monday when they had trouble in the rough surf. They were rescued, but the older man did not survive. Their names have not been released. Officials closed beaches in nearby Seaside Heights after making about four water rescues on Monday. Neighboring Seaside Park reported five rescues in a 3-hour span. The National Weather Service warned of a high rip current risk through Tuesday night.
Forming Monday morning, Tropical Storm Teddy is expected to become a hurricane within the next few days and a Category 3 major hurricane headed in Bermuda’s general direction by Thursday but at present is no threat to land.
As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, Teddy was located about 865 miles east of the Lesser Antilles with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph moving northwest at 9 mph with tropical-storm force winds extending out 175 miles. Large swells could begin to hit the Lesser Antilles and South America on Wednesday.
Tropical Storm Vicky also spiraled into formation Monday morning, the NHC said. As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, Vicky was located 710 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph moving west-northwest at 12 mph with tropical-storm-force winds extending out 80 miles.
Despite significant wind shear, Vicky is not weakening as forecasters expected, but the storm is still expected to lose strength and reach a remnant low within a couple days.
The NHC continues to monitor other tropical developments in the already busy Atlantic.
First, a surface trough over the west-central Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Any development should be slow in the next few days as it meanders over the Gulf waters, the NHC said. It has a low, 10% chance of developing in the next two days and a 20% chance of developing in the next five.
Second, the NHC says a low-pressure system that formed off a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa has more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity and likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next couple of days. The system now a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving west at 10-15 mph. The NHC gives it a 50% chances of formation in the next two days, and 70% in the next five days.
Finally, a new system caught the NHC’s attention overnight located in a nontropical area in the far northeast Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. The low-pressure system is forecast to move south-southeast in the next few days though and could encounter warmer waters with the potential to grow into a system with tropical or subtropical characteristics. The NHC gives is a 10% chance to form in the next two days and 20% chance in the next five days.
If any of those systems develop into a tropical storm, they will be named “Wilfred” – the final name on the 2020 hurricane season name last. Any storm that develops after Wilfred will be designated a letter from the Greek alphabet.
Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. NOAA forecast this year an estimated 19 to 25 named storms was possible before the end of season — it was the largest forecast NOAA ever predicted.
Orlando Sentinel staff writers David Harris, Katie Rice, Lynnette Cantos and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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