Despite the steady stream of bellicose rhetoric from Baghdad, Israeli officials and defense experts say they believe Iraq is unlikely to risk opening a second front by launching missiles against Israel.
Defense Minister Moshe Arens, President Chaim Herzog and senior military officers, in public and private comments, continue to maintain that Israel`s formidable war machine probably will be enough to deter Iraq.
They acknowledge that Iraq has the capacity to hit Israel with missiles carrying conventional or chemical warheads, and they don`t rule out that possibility.
But they say they do not believe Iraqi missiles can inflict serious military or civilian damage, nor do they think Iraq would be willing to chance an Israeli response.
”Saddam Hussein is very dangerous. He is brutal, but he is not stupid,” said Gen. Ahron Yariv, head of the respected Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University.
”He takes a big risk in attacking Israel. He believes we have an atomic bomb. He doesn`t know how we will react,” said Yariv.
Joseph Alpher, deputy head of the Jaffee Center, estimated that the odds are ”better than 50 percent” that Israel would not be attacked even if a war broke out between Iraq and the United States.
Hussein has been quoted as saying Tel Aviv would be his first target if U.S. forces attack Iraqi troops.
Israeli officials, mostly in deference to U.S. wishes, have stated repeatedly that Israel won`t stage a preemptive strike against Iraqi launch sites.
This, however, exposes Israel`s greatest vulnerability: Once a missile strike is launched, Israel would be virtually defenseless against it.
”Unfortunately, I don`t think we have any serious capability of knocking down missiles,” said Yariv.
The U.S. has promised to provide Israel with two batteries of Patriot missiles, the most sophisticated anti-missile system. But the Patriots have not yet been delivered, and two batteries would be insufficient in any event. Israel does possess Hawk missiles, but these are effective against aircraft, not other missiles.
Iraq is believed to have hundreds of missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv, but only a limited number of launchers, perhaps 50.
The primary threat in the Iraqi arsenal is the al-Hussein missile, an adaptation of the Soviet-made Scud-B. It has a range of 375 to 400 miles.
Tel Aviv and other Israeli population centers are between 270 and 350 miles from the main Iraqi launch sites.
”The Iraqis do have surface-to-surface missiles that can reach us. They do have chemical warheads for the missiles, but it seems that these missiles are very unsophisticated,” said Yariv.
At its maximum range, the al-Hussein missile is accurate to within one or two miles of its target-not particularly effective in military terms, but sufficient if its purpose is to terrorize civilian population centers.
At this range, it would carry a relatively small payload of 300 pounds. This would not be an efficient delivery system for chemical weapons, because it would take about four tons of mustard gas or a half ton of sarin nerve gas to achieve a 50 percent casualty rate over an area of about six-tenths of a square mile.
The Iraqis also would have to explode the missiles at precisely the right altitude to achieve optimal results, a technology that most experts do not believe Iraq has mastered.
To maximize casualties, most experts say Iraq would be better off using conventional warheads. But even with conventional warheads, Israeli experts believe that loss of life would not be great.
”We studied what the Iraqi missiles did in Tehran. Each missile, on average, killed between four and 10 people,” said the Jaffee Center`s Alpher. He noted that Tehran, during the Iraq-Iran war, had virtually no air defenses and no underground shelters.
”My own assessment is that the Iraqi missiles are not strategic weapons. Their primary threat is psychological,” he said.
The Israeli response to an Iraqi missile attack would depend on the amount of damage inflicted. The Israelis have signaled that a chemical attack- even if the casualties are light-would provoke massive retaliation.
Israeli officials admit they are totally dependent on the U.S. for ”real time” intelligence about Iraqi launch preparations. Such information would give the Israelis 10 to 20 hours` advance notice of a possible attack. Once launched, it would take Iraqi missiles five to eight minutes to hit Tel Aviv.
