The Labor Party is headed for a landslide victory in Thursday’s national election, and within the ruling Conservative Party a scramble already is getting under way for the succession to Prime Minister John Major as party leader.
That was the conclusion of Britain’s leading newspapers Sunday, based partly on poll findings that have demonstrated a resurgence of support for Labor in recent days.
The pro-Conservative Sunday Telegraph said the Conservative high command has admitted privately that victory is almost certainly beyond Major’s grasp. It said the Conservatives’ only remaining hope is for a hung Parliament, in which no party would have a majority, but even in that eventuality Labor would probably form the next government.
The pro-Labor Observer, which conducted a special poll in constituencies in which the Conservatives hold power by only a narrow margin, said up to eight Conservative ministers could be defeated. Other newspapers agreed that at least three are almost certain to lose their seats.
The wide-ranging predictions of a landslide prompted Labor leader Tony Blair to issue a warning to his supporters to take nothing for granted. He said any assumption of victory could lead Labor supporters to stay at home Thursday and ensure a fifth consecutive Conservative government.
But disarray within the Conservative Party deepened as Edwina Currie, a former Conservative minister, predicted a Labor majority of around 100 seats. She blamed Major for the impending defeat. When people “compare the records of Blair and Major, Blair comes across better,” she wrote in the Sunday Express.
Currie is on the pro-European wing of the Conservative Party and holds that Major has failed to stand up to the so-called Euroskeptics. She said only a miracle could save her own seat.
Four polls published Sunday showed Labor ahead of the Conservatives by margins ranging between 15 and 24 points. The polling firm ICM, which gave heart to the Conservatives last week by reporting Labor’s lead had shrunk to just 5 points, had them back to 15 points ahead Sunday.
The various poll results indicated Labor could emerge with a parliamentary majority of 165 seats or more. The Observer said the majority could approach 200.
Yet the polls suggest that many voters remain undecided, and some who are leaning to Labor could change their minds. Therefore some pollsters and politicians expect the Labor margin of victory may be narrower than polls suggest.
The Conservative ministers considered almost certain to lose their seats are all from Scotland, where the Tory Party traditionally runs behind Labor. They are Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind, Scottish Secretary Michael Forsyth and Industry Minister Ian Lang. The Observer said William Waldegrave, Treasury chief secretary, also appears headed for defeat.
The four other ministers who the Observer said face possible defeat include Defense Secretary Michael Portillo, one of those with ambitions to succeed Major.
Newspapers said Major was under some pressure within his party to go to Brussels before the election and confront other European ministers to dramatize his party’s skeptical view of moves toward European integration. But Rifkind and other pro-European Conservatives were said to be opposed to such a tactic.
The Sunday Telegraph said there was renewed speculation Major would resign as party leader within hours of a Conservative defeat, but some party leaders would try to persuade him to stay on for another three months.
John Redwood, who challenged Major for the party leadership two years ago, was reported to be offering himself widely for interviews once the election result is known as a means of launching his campaign for the leadership.
Redwood called on the party to switch its campaign tactics and start emphasizing Conservative proposals for education. There were also reports that Home Secretary Michael Howard has a campaign team on standby.
The subject of taxes appeared likely to dominate the closing days of the campaign, with each party accusing the other of putting forward spending proposals that cannot be covered by current rates of taxation.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research will publish a warning Wednesday that any incoming government will have to increase taxes to reduce the budget deficit.
