For more than a century, Wykes Farms in Plano, Ill., has endured the worst winter storms that Mother Nature could dish out.
This winter, instead of the usual blizzards and arctic blasts, it’s getting an unexpected breather.
The deep frost is long gone on Bill Wykes’ 800-acre spread. The pussy willows are budding and earthworms are wriggling to the surface–an unheard-of phenomenon at this time of year.
The 3,600-strong hog herd has never spent a more snug, contented winter. And the ground is so firm that Wykes has been tempted to climb aboard his tractor and begin the field work for spring planting, although it’s at least a month early for that.
“This El Nino thing is really strange,” the fifth-generation farmer explained.
Even as the weathermaker known as El Nino has wreaked havoc across a wide swath of the globe, Midwesterners have had nothing to complain about. The unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America has made the last month one of the balmiest Februaries in memory for Chicagoland.
Yet for Wykes and other Midwest farmers, the friendly conditions could change shortly.
As spring planting approaches, a growing chorus of analysts and meteorologists is raising the spectre of harsh weather ahead.
Because of the climate irregularities associated with El Nino, the chances of “weather adversity” in the Midwest breadbasket are 57 percent this season, nearly double the normal odds, said Bill Biedermann, vice president of research at Allendale Inc., a commodities firm in McHenry.
Even more so than usual, he predicted, “the weather is going to dictate the supply.”
Unusually cool spring temperatures could delay germination of the corn and soybean seed that will be planted over the next few months, Biedermann and other experts warn. Already, wet weather has delayed planting in southern states from Georgia to Texas.
Even more worrisome, summer heat waves with temperatures hovering in the upper 90s and low 100s may be in store.
To be sure, traders are taking the dire forecasts into account. Without the threat of El Nino, futures prices for the fall corn crop would drop to $2.30 per bushel or so, from the current $2.80, Biedermann estimates. And the coming crop of soybeans for November delivery would hover around $5.75 per bushel, instead of the current $6.48.
Conversely, if El Nino were to cause all the problems that it threatens to cause, corn could soar to $4 a bushel and beans to $10 a bushel, Biedermann said.
One imperfect indicator of what’s ahead is the El Nino of 1982-83, which followed a pattern similar to the current one. It brought weather disturbances that cut into U.S. crops, sharply reduced the harvest in the Southern Hemisphere and caused prices to skyrocket.
The similarities are causing jitters in the markets, and raising the prospect that U.S. government forecasts could be off, said analyst Dale Gustafson of Salomon Smith Barney. “We’re already worried,” he said.
Just last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast a record 2.8 billion-bushel soybean crop and a second-largest corn harvest of 9.8 billion bushels–optimistic appraisals that could surely change with the weather, Gustafson said.
El Nino affects the growing season when the warmer-than-usual Pacific waters trigger changes in air pressure and trade winds.
In the summer growing season, unseasonable temperatures pose the biggest threat, said agricultural meteorologist John Dee, president of Global Weather Monitoring in Chicago.
“Maybe some dryness will aggravate the situation, but heat is the main issue,” Dee said.
Corn is acutely vulnerable to hot, dry conditions during its pollination stage in July.
Adding to the potential for big market swings, global corn supplies are relatively tight.
Soybeans, on the other hand, are wide open to heat damage during the August pod-filling stage.
Soybean supplies aren’t as tight as corn, largely because South American producers are in the midst of a bumper harvest. In addition, farmers in the southern U.S. might plant more soybeans than expected because of the low price for cotton, their usual crop.
For his part, Wykes is praying for snow and cold at the moment. A “good hard freeze” helps break up the soil, he said. And any precipitation will be welcome, since it will help make up for the dry conditions of the previous months.
“You don’t want to go into an El Nino summer low on water reserves,” he said. “This one could really hurt.”
