The combat deaths of at least seven U.S. soldiers Monday in Afghanistan provided a jarring reaffirmation of repeated Pentagon and White House warnings that the war on terrorism will not end quickly or easily.
Analysts said the heavy fighting in the eastern mountains near Gardez raises questions about the future of the military campaign and whether the U.S. will alter its plans in the face of stubborn resistance.
Asked Monday if the Pentagon would send reinforcements to assist in the assault, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the military would do “whatever it takes,” but did not elaborate.
Rumsfeld did say the offensive against Al Qaeda and Taliban forces “will not be the last such operation in Afghanistan.”
The current fighting involves about 1,000 U.S. ground troops assisting Afghan forces in a bid to capture Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters who fled to mountain regions south of Kabul when the Taliban regime collapsed in December.
Major U.S. offensive
The “Anaconda offensive” involves a much heavier commitment of American troops than previous ground operations. Analysts said it represents a recognition by U.S. military leaders that they erred during the Tora Bora campaign in December.
U.S. commanders thought they had Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders trapped near the border with Pakistan, but allowed Afghan forces to carry out the mountain search and much of the ground combat. U.S. officials now believe bin Laden escaped along with several Al Qaeda officials.
“We learned quite a bit in the offensive around Tora Bora in December and now we’re capitalizing on those lessons learned,” said Stephen Baker, a retired rear admiral and senior fellow at the Center for Defense Information. “We’re seeing some casualties, but I don’t think the environment there is any more hostile or high risk than it was. If anything, this underscores our aggressive pursuit of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.”
Baker said he believes the attack was planned “quite extensively in the past several weeks.”
“I’m not surprised by this,” he added. “The war is far, far from over in Afghanistan.”
Daniel Benjamin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it was “way premature” to draw parallels to the Soviet Union’s costly and ultimately unsuccessful military campaign in Afghanistan, in which Soviet forces became bogged down in guerrilla fighting in mountainous regions.
“You have to keep in mind that Arab Afghans have nowhere to go, and so they are fighting very, very fiercely,” Benjamin said. “It’s a big country and there are a lot of places to hide.”
U.S. forces were reportedly repulsed in their initial attack during the weekend and regrouped at Gardez before launching a second attack.
Baker and other analysts said more U.S. troop involvement does not necessarily suggest more forces will be needed–at least not yet.
Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described the Al Qaeda and Taliban forces as well-fortified and having “lots of weapons.”
“We knew that Al Qaeda would have two choices: to run or stay and fight,” Myers said. “It seems they have chosen to stay and fight to the last, and we hope to accommodate them.”
Perception changes
Military developments in the past few days shattered the perception that the Afghan war was dwindling to a series of minor skirmishes with little risk to U.S. forces. In the past few weeks, the attention of the anti-terrorism campaign had shifted from Afghanistan to Iraq, with talk of a possible U.S. attack against Saddam Hussein.
“All the talk by President Bush of the `axis of evil’ was premature,” said Lawrence Korb, a former assistant secretary of defense, referring to the State of the Union remarks about Iraq, Iran and North Korea.
“What the president should have said is that is that the war [in Afghanistan] is not over and there are things we haven’t done,” Korb said. “I think we got a little bit unrealistic in thinking we could beat these characters with no real battles.”
Still, Korb said the nature of the Al Qaeda and Taliban resistance should not be blown out of proportion.
“Even though this is a fierce battle, you’re talking about a few hundred people,” he said. “I would say this is the last significant battle.”
Others are not so sure. Benjamin said it is possible that the battle south of Kabul may represent the end game of the conflict, “but, who knows?”
Baker said the current battle could represent “the jackpot” in terms of Al Qaeda and Taliban leadership. But the retired naval officer expected the war in Afghanistan to last into the summer, if not longer.
