Six months after President Pervez Musharraf joined the U.S.-led coalition against terror, Pakistan has seen few tangible benefits and is reeling from waves of anti-American attacks.
“There was a hope that when Musharraf broke ranks and sided with the Americans that things would improve,” said Arif Jamal, an author who has spent much of the last two years researching Islamic militant organizations in Pakistan. “Instead they have gotten worse. And when you look at the indicators, I am very sure that things will become bleaker.”
Economically, many of the anticipated $1 billion-plus in international incentives have yet to materialize. Foreign investment has fallen by a third in recent months, and textile orders plummeted 64 percent.
Despite praise from abroad for his tough stance, Musharraf’s crackdown on the religious right has failed to curb political and sectarian backlashes. There have been dozens of incidents since September, including assassinations of doctors and other prominent people who may have been viewed as symbols of Western tolerance by religiously motivated attackers.
Musharraf determined
Musharraf is standing fast. He traveled to Afghanistan on Tuesday to reaffirm his backing for interim leader Hamid Karzai and the Kabul government. Pakistan’s aim, Musharraf said, is to help Afghanistan stamp out terrorism.
As Arab militants and opponents of Musharraf’s alliance with the U.S. work to destabilize his regime, U.S. citizens have come under attack. Two Americans and three other people were killed last month in a grenade attack on an Islamabad church frequented by foreigners, and American reporter Daniel Pearl was kidnapped in January and murdered.
The trial of Sheik Omar Saeed, the alleged mastermind of the Pearl kidnapping, and three defendants is scheduled to begin Friday. The case is expected to end without a clear-cut verdict because of weak evidence. Pearl’s body has not been recovered, and several key suspects have not been apprehended.
If American authorities persuade Musharraf to later extradite Saeed in connection with investigations into the Sept. 11 U.S. terror attacks, violent protests are expected.
Fears of further attacks prompted U.S. Embassy officials recently to evacuate families and support staff.
Concern over U.S. intervention
As U.S. investigative agencies get more involved in Pakistani terrorist probes and U.S. military advisers help guide Pakistani border containment efforts, there is worry in many Pakistani circles over rising American intervention.
After U.S. military officials suggested they would chase Taliban and Arab fighters from Afghanistan into Pakistan, analysts warned of a public backlash. There were harsh words last week at mosque prayers against the government and the United States after a few dozen suspects with links to Al Qaeda were arrested in two Pakistani cities by authorities working in conjunction with American agents.
A continuing concern for Pakistanis is the uneasy detente along the Indian border, where they worry that Musharraf is distracted by internal problems while India seeks strategic advantage.
“Pakistan has acted against its own interest to please America,” said retired army Gen. Hamid Gul, a former Pakistani security chief and a vocal critic of the U.S.-Pakistan alliance. “Pakistan is paying the price in economic and social upheaval.”
Musharraf seems determined to keep the reins of power and has been trying to muster support for a referendum reaffirming his rule. The ballot would be sometime before parliamentary elections in October. Islamic leaders have vowed to rally opposition to the referendum.
“It is unprecedented in democracy that you should have a referendum and not an election to keep yourself in power,” said Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, leader of the anti-government coalition Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy.
“There is no democracy in Pakistan,” said Khan, who was banned from his hometown, Lahore, last month for 30 days after trying to stage a demonstration. “Musharraf has all the power unto himself.”
Critics charge that, like his token efforts toward democracy, Musharraf’s aid to the anti-terror coalition is halfhearted.
Along the border areas with Afghanistan, the government boasts that the passages are “sealed tight.” But locals insist the border is porous. Afghan and American intelligence indicates that Al Qaeda and the Taliban are regrouping inside Pakistani territory for a strike in Afghanistan.
Money, arms, supplies and electronic equipment have been ferried to Taliban fighters in the mountains through middlemen and into places accessible only by natives who can navigate the difficult terrain, according to several longtime residents who travel in and out of Afghanistan.
U.S. advisers arrived in the border region last week, and more than $70 million in U.S. surveillance aid is on the way. Still, the government says the region already is stable. It has made deals with tribes controlling the territories for joint patrols in exchange for aid.
`Deep anger among people’
Among the thousands of tribesmen who live in the area there is fury against the U.S.-led war, especially after more than 3,500 U.S. bombs were dropped in recent weeks in the Afghan mountains where their Pashtun brothers live and some civilians were injured and killed.
Despite government insistence that residents back the coalition, there are calls in religious schools, mosques and on the streets for a holy war against U.S. and Afghan troops.
“There is serious resentment, a deep anger among people,” said Sayid Nasib Ali Shah, who runs a religious school in Bannu, the provincial hub near the Afghan border. “If there is a call for people to fight, they will.”
Even those targeted by Musharraf say that his crackdown has been weak. While more suspected militants were arrested last week, some 1,300 have been released in recent days as the government attempts to appease religious parties.
“What are they achieving with all these detentions but bad will?” said Qazi Hussan Ahmad, the leader of Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest Islamic party, who was released this month after spending four months in detention in a guest house and hospital room.
“If anything, my detention brought out more people to protest,” said Ahmad, a leading opponent of the military regime.
